Can we fold the river after checking down an overpair?

ArtursArturs Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
5/5 game
Effective stacks 3k

Hero: TAG reg in mid 20's. I have been playing very snug today not getting out of line but have gotten a bit lucky against the Villain.

Villain: Notorious game crusher. Has commentated on Live at the Bike. Is capable of large bluffs and has attempted to bluff me once or twice today.

Pre:

Hero :Kh:KC: in utg+1 opens for 25$
Two callers in between.
Villain makes it 105$ from SB
Hero 4bet 330$
Villain calls

Flop:

:QH::JC::4H:

Check, check

Turn:

:6D:

Check check

River:

:9C:

Villain bets 630$

B.S flop hits Villain far too well and I could not think of a good value target. I thought the chances of villain calling down my 4bet with :AH::QC: to be remote to say the least. My best chance to make money I figure was to induce a bluff ...and maybe I got one.

Comments

  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    QQ, JJ, KT should bet the turn. 99 makes sense. There are three combos of that.

    What does he do with AQ? Of the 12 combos of AQ does he play two of them this way?

    How often does he have total air here?


    From your description of him it seems like he is aggressive enough such that you will be ahead 1/3+ of the time and should call.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    I think you played a little too passively post flop. Checking the flop isn't terrible, but I don't think you have reason to check the turn. What's the dynamic between you and this player? How wide will they call your 4 bet? Have you 4 bet much in this session?

    As played, I think you can call this bet for a few reasons: 1.) you're range looks like Ace high, 2.) villain has shown some bluffs 3.) villain has an aggressive image, and your range looks weak 4.) what the heck is he repping at this point? Exactly 99? Also, what's he hoping to be called with when choosing this sizing?

    I do wonder what kind of hand this player would call your 4 bet with OOP, check flop and turn, and then basically bet pot on the river. How big of a bluffing range does he have here? What's his value range look like? Surely, KK is ahead of some of his value range.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    What is villain's 3bet range from the blinds?
    What does villain perceive your 4bet range?
    What exactly did you think was villain's 4bet calling range?
    When you plug these and the flop into equilab do you think villain will fold more than 33% of his range to a 1/2 pot flop bet?

    As played: this is the life of a bluffcatcher, so bluffcatch
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    I toss in a chip quickly and hope for good results. He has enough bluffs here, as well as balanced with his value. If he has value, great for him. I think his sets will bet the turn, if he rivered a set nice job. But is a rivered set gonna try to get pot from...AK? Cause you made your hand look like AK, either that or a crafty QQ or JJ. Either way, all this checking has induced (plan?) and now it's time to pay the piper.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    He has enough bluffs here
    I get the feeling that v's bluffing range in this spot, given their line, is very slim. However, I think their value range could be behind KK.

    What types of hands do you think villain gets to the river with that are bluffs? I can see hands like 88 & AK becoming bluffs, but given hero's line, it seems like 88 would be better suited for a thin value bet and AK would be a decent bluff to steal a chop.

    Given hero's snug image in this session, I would think villain would give hero credit for a AK, QQ+ 4 bet range at it's very widest. However, once hero checks the flop and turn, it becomes rather clear that hero is operating with AK as there shouldn't be much reason for hero to check QQ+ twice. V could certainly check their sets on the flop and turn as they may attempt to check raise and therefore villain likely arrives at the river with more strong hands than hero.


  • ArtursArturs Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    The villain had :JS::JD:

    I think the villain expects to be able to push me off hands and to be able to outplay me which is why I checked twice. If he had a draw or a bluff I would expect him to try to blow me off a significant percentage. Given how well his value range connected with the board I didn't want to risk playing for stacks.

    His 3bet range can be as wide as :6C::8H: but I give him credit for a reasonable 4bet oop calling range. I think he would call most pairs maybe all and maybe AQ suited. However, since he 3bet we can likely rule out most small pairs.

    If he had AQ I would not expect to get more than one street of value and I thought the river was a good time to get it. The villain must perceive my 4bet range as AK+.

    As such I though this spot was close and called off.
  • ArtursArturs Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    If you were the villain with :AS::Ks: would you consider a bluff and how big?
  • last4everlast4ever Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    For those saying V bets the turn with QQ or JJ, can you explain the logic behind that thinking?

    V might believe a smaller river bet would look too much like value, and is looking to get a hero call from AK. That being said there's still a lot of bluffs in his range, and he may feel AQ is the best hand. Given your hand is underreped I probably pay it off.

    Just curious about your decision not to bet the flop. It sounds like you were a little worried about monsters in the closet, which raises the question, how much do you feel his check on the turn changes his 4bet calling range on the river?

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