What if all the wrong things are actually right?

zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
Look, I know what everyone's gonna say, one hand does not a poker career make, but this is in line with some of the conversation in the last couple days. Is there a chance our V played me like a fiddle? Or did I play myself as such?

V is 38/13 over 8 hands. It's tough as shit putting these people on anything when you only see them do something 3 times. I suppose this is in line with @persuadeo lack of information online.

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 71.78 BB
BTN: 101.22 BB (VPIP: 15.69, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 52)
SB: 59.14 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 59.4 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
UTG: 75.26 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG+1: 123.94 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 8)
MP: 42.42 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP+1: 59.34 BB (VPIP: 20.69, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has :9D::9H:

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 5.76 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 4.76 BB, MP calls 4.76 BB, MP+1 calls 4.76 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 4 players) :4H::4D::7H:
UTG+1 bets 25 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 25 BB

Turn: (75.5 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
UTG+1 bets 93.06 BB and is all-in, Hero ??

Looking now the "they always have it" line from last week comes to mind. But really? As often as I see someone here with the trips I also see someone bluffing the paired board...

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Doubtful he is potting 44 or 77 as a donk bet. Already put in over a 3rd of your stack. Maybe he has 56d's?Ad7d? 86HH?

    Have to give him a wider range for limping with a 38 vpip. Even though its a small sample. Its like 2% chance he flops trips so I'm stacking off here.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    Right, I put him on a draw for sure. Did I not raise enough pre? I find the late position raise to punish limpers doesn't do much at these stakes. The first one in just calls and then they successively give each a better and better price to pile in. Should I be raising the flop donk? does his sizing tell us anything?
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2017
    Raise more pre. Flop call is fine. A shove also is not bad at these stacks & probably what I prefer. As played on river, I could not fault a fold or a call basically readless.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    So he had :JD::4S: And this is why I posted. He limp/calls OOP basically anything, he leads for pot with trips, and it worked great, he got all the chips, which in tournaments is what you want.

    One the one hand we can say, what a fish, want to play more with him cuz in the end we win all the chips.

    But on the other, poker is about deception and this dude did everything right in that way. Against me this was a very dominating strategy and is in line with what @star681 was saying in his thread about playing OOP. We can certainly write this hand off as V just getting lucky but I'm not necessarily ready to do that.

    In the long run, in tournament situations, is this guaranteed to be a losing play against TAG/ABC/playing poker by the books type players? I'm not sure that it is...
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    The main decision point seems to be occurring on the flop. V has put you into a raise/fold situation when you hold a hand that can easily be outdrawn--I think you should stick to either of those options.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2017
    First and foremost you have to learn how to play multiway pots. I know at this sight multi way pots are a big taboo...when I posted a thread on how to play them reviewing the literature on how to play them I got attacked for daring to suggest that not getting players to fold J4 was somehow a bad thing (well really suggesting that keeping loss ranges in and playing multi way was very proftiable).

    Now you say you can't put this guy on a hand. Well I agree preflop you can't especially if he thinks its going multi way (as you say). But here is the nice thing in muilti pots players play much more straight forward, unless they are complete drewlers. And complete drewlers tend to be noticed already. At 33 18 is not a complete mainiac at least not by default (compare to a 35 33 type thing). That is to say he is not going to attack (donk) a paired board into a preflop raiser and 2 other players as some crazy bluff.

    Second he makes a big bet into 4 players (pot size into a big pot). You tell me do players at your level do this with flush draws often or a cold bluff, or a weak made hand. Sure if he had bet 1/2 it might be a see where I'm at, or set the price flush draw but not pot, I have not played this level for a very long time (well never with an anti)...but my guess is if you think about it, its not that common. Its defiantly not common live at 1-2 and 2-5).

    I would not hate a fold on the flop here (probably my default) and I really don't hate the call down. At best its much closer then you think...On line players do hit pot more often,at Live , 1-2 this would be an easy fold against most bad players, multi way donking big is big hand...

    But the think here is you have to watch how players play in multi way pots. A stat like 33 18 or 45 40, or high aggression factors or whatever, really don't tell you how they play in multi way pots. Its a different animal the hu pots, and IMO often much easier to hand read in as most players play them so straight forward. Even logic like he would never donk trips here, really goes out the door on multi way pots, as players are much more concerned with protecting their hands multi way then hu.

    In fact I would recommend that you go into your data base...and filter raised pots 4 or more to the flop, with a donk bet. i think you might be surppriced at how really these are bluffs.



  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    These are all really good points. On the face of it folding to a donk on this board seems madness and extremely exploitable - at what point do these medium PPs actually bring us value, short of hitting sets. That can't be the only time we make money on these hands, with this kind of flop.

    But having said that, your point that in a multiway pot most players play very straight forward, this lead with his 4x makes sense, considering the FD and all the players. The only extra consideration I give here is the likelihood that he's not betting a FD or that he's not stabbing at the paired board which I have seen players in EP do in the past.

    But since we're in a tournament and we do want to conserve chips, then it feels like maybe we give buddy credit for a 4 and fold. If the board was rainbow, maybe that would be enough to stick around, thinking he'd have more likely check/raised or waited a street to get aggressive and that instead he's donking a 7 or overs.

    One thing I think I'm going to try and adjust to in game is the idea that everyone I play against is competent - not amazing but not terrible either -- until I'm proven otherwise in either direction, over a decent sized sample. I think it's a leak of mine to always assume my Vs are weak/bad/making goofy stabby bluffs. I think things will go better if I start to give people a little more credit, particularly online.
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    wow! I got an honorable mention :) cool. Ok here is my 7 cents. 60% is revealed on the flop. (not this hand all hands) so the most variance occurs pre flop. so/and pre is the smallest betting round mostly. so exchanged a small mistake on his part for the off chance of stacking you. if it dosnt work he can try a small bluff if he has a read on u or give up. but if it works and he stacks u,,,thats what he needs to final. or he can abc and bublle. the mistakes you make pre flop are small. but after that you dont want to make any mistakes especially big ones. and you only want to make them against pay off opponents. having said that, j4 off is NOT the hand I would have choosen and he got lucky af. and ........ummm I think u could have gotten away on the turn.......but I dont know alot of how you two playing before. but I stack people alot oop with 8,6s 4,6s ........its a mistake but a small one and im quick to drop if no equity on flop. maybe a double barrel depending on my stack and his fold tendencies. but in mtt I dont know , you dont have to many chips like deep cash to fool around with so he made mistake and got luck af. if u had AA it would have been the same. except he could have qq,. in short if u have the stack accumlated u can widen your range and plays for deception to play for stacks, ......but dang.. i dont even do the j4, just my 7 cents. play a cash game super tight i mean super tight like the suited side of the upper right quaferant and 10+ for 3 hours, first in with a raise, u will double up, at that point go walk around frink some gaterode, and then come back and mentally lock down your principle, so at 2/5 ur tigh AF ur14 hands tight and aggressive all suited broadway, 10+ and AK Aqo playing , for 3 hours. play them right and you should double up in 2-3 hours, take a break drink gaterode. you need elctrolytes. come back open up to full broadway and add in 99, another 3 hours, watch who your going to get folds on and who is sticky in this boring time. once you get past double up. forget about the money, this is an experiment. (do mentally lock down your principle) try raising big or 3 betting in the small blind, what ever the flops comes pot it, if you have open ended and flush on turn pot it again, before you move your hands mentaly imagine your card are top set, and pot it again, see what happens. call a utg raise with 46c and see what happens, if he chks bet hard 2/3, look at him , if he looks wekaish or just calls analyze a little if your ip and he checks again POT, with 6 high, if you have any flush stright equity POT. when he folds show. have fun, try it. after you show go back to nitted. for the whole session. and overbet value, have fun that session, just preserve your principle. it works, its great, it takes intution on who to do it to. i dont know about mtts though, u cant really bluff from what if seen, maybe a small cbet. also if u played ur pair aggreissivly and got raised u might want to just fold. again im not an mtt guy.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    ok you're my fave poster to read. Definitely entertaining.

    I see your points re: deep cash, I get opening wide OOP with those low suited hands. Totally. Cheap views and not necessarily expected, especially if you show up once and score and then tighten up. But i think in MTTs it gets a lot harder to play this way, except early, which is how all the rest of the tables are playing, gambling it up and trying to double up before the rebuy period is over. So many times it makes more sense to me to not play like the rest of the table. This is when you can double/triple/quad up with a nice AA hand (or get busted with same hand).

    But I like how you describe it. And i love the Gatorade note - great detail!
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    thanks man. if you want some realhonest advice. if you like mtts's. the only way to do it is to get real good at grinding cash games slow, always preserving your principle. then take 50 the profit and enter mtts and the other 50 % to build br. if you work and spend your money on mtts....... i dont know. but I wish u the best of hold ups my friend. and the gaterode works. thats pro level advice.

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