2/5: squeeze called but getting raised on flop

RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭✭✭
Hi everybody,
The other night I had my 2nd 2/5$ session at the Wynn (LV). After 4 hours and half I was breakeven. Turns out my last hand was a tough spot. I think I made the right decision, but I'm not sure and would like your feedback: What do you do on the flop when your C-Bet got raised ? Do you agree with my analysis?


SITUATION

2/5$ game. 7 handed (3 V've just got busted and left, main V's just arrived)
- Hero has 920$. Played little hands (didn't have many good cards). Breakeven. Might be seen as an ok-TAG. Is a 30-ish and spend some times talking to his direct neighbors (until they both got recently busted).
- Table dynamic is pretty loose and sticky preflop (even 5-handed 3-bet pots happened several times before). Villains regularly limp pre; but fold if someone raise (even to a barely more than usual raise). Kinda fit-or-fold post ; maybe because many pots were MW. Most of players are pretty deep and most of them cover Hero. Hero has the feeling playing on 1/2 table. Only 1 guy (seat 3) is really good (tight solid TAG) and over-skill everybody.
- Villain has just arrived (very first hand) and have no clue about his opponents or table dynamic. Is a ~45-ish yo Asian guy; came with 3 friends (2w 1 m). Buy-in for the max (3k).

Hero is BB with :TH::TD:

PREFLOP
UTG (Villain): straddle
UTG+1 to SB: limp around (except seat 3 who fold)
BB (Hero): squeeze 110$ into a 60$ pot (hesitate to throw 125, but as limpers tend to respect raises, I thought it would be enough to do the job)
UTG: call
UTG+1 to BU: fold

FLOP
pot: 280$
:7H::6H::3C:
Hero: C-Bet 100$
Villain: raise 450$
Hero: ???

RESOLUTION
Hero: tank... tank... (see under for my tanking)... and shove for 810$.
V: smooth calls (after H struggles to give the count of his chips, but V seems having made his mind beforehand)

Turn: :9H:
River: :5S:

V has :5D::5H: and wins with a lucky set on river

After the hand, we talked a bit. He said he was hoping I would fold here against such raise.


1/ Flop decision (live)
a) C-betting
- the board is kinda drawy. I don't want to give a free card (esp. to :HEART: FD - AhXh may have call the squeeze). Also a FD IP will call me, esp. if it's a not-nutted FD (KhQh for ex), so I can value bet TT v. FD.
- I'm not concerned by a made straight as 65s is not a hand I expect squeeze+1 (mostly OOP) to call preflop
- V may have call with many pocket pairs. Not JJ+ as it's an almost no brain 3-bet: to punish the squeezer and isolate him (avoiding limp-callers after you, avoiding playing JJ+ OOP MW). I also don't expect many small PP to call as they need other callers to have the right IO. So I can almost discard set of 33. I'm afraid of 66-77 (made set), but can expect 88 and 99 to call.

Because of that, TT seem to be a fine value C-bet. I sized it small-ish (1/3 pot) as I should already rep a pretty strong (value) hand by squeezing+C-betting: I don't want to afraid the many medium-ish hand V called with.

a) fold or shove
To my surprise, V raises me, and raises very strong by overbetting the pot (450$ into a 380$ pot).
If H call, there is only ~360$ eff. behind for a ~1200$ pot. V hits the leverage point: it's now a question of fold or shove.

What hands V raises for value against TT:
- some 33, and 66-77 (sets)
- some AhQh-AhKh (but I expect them to 3bet pre often, esp. AKhh), AhJh.
- overplayed overpairs (88-TT)? Overplay FD (Ah2h) ?
- I don't think V have 2P or straight here, or extremely rarely, because of bad IO preflop.
Good point for me if he has FD: I've one of his outs. Which also may few times save my life if he holds a set.

With this sizing, it's looks like V wanting full value or pushing me out against me holding a FD or overcards (AK, AQ, AJ) and trying to price-in.

During though process, an info suddenly hits me: he doesn't know I've a made pair. He may think I've overcards /miss the board a lot of the time (squeeze range), and try to push me out (or get value) with a small made pair, a FD and/or TPTK (As8s etc) before a high cards turn/river and let me win.

Because of that, I thought I should be good enough of the time. I shove (not expecting much FE, except if he raises too light to expect many fold with a weak holding).

2/ Flop decision (off table analysis)
Now I break the hand down off table.

Here is my range as I think V has perceived it (not my actual squeeze range):
i7jev3brqes4.png

Here is the range I expect Villain to call with (may not be his actual calling range):
5y5syz9hxwyj.png


Once on the flop, I C-bet, here are the expectations:
uh9fg4gr92qt.png

And what I think he may raise with:
ly8ycyuebaft.png

Fun fact: when I put my C-Bet range and what I expect him to raise with, I'm already ahead using HoldEq (57% equity).
I really have to take out of his range many FD and weak pairs for him to have equity advantage when pushing. Coin flipping is if Villain push with : sets (66, 77 and some 33), 99, TT, AhJh, Ah5h. If he bets slightly more FD or made pairs, Hero is ahead.

But the monstrous bet sizing is not something I expect from a set (too high to expect a call and get value). Maybe only a bad player would do that, afraid to be outdrawn. But this V doesn't seems that bad: we are at 2/5, he is concentrated, he buys-in for the max.
So even if I got busted and lost all my stack in this hand, I'm still happy with my play and would follow the same line. Except if you advise it otherwise?

Best Answers

Answers

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks @persuadeo @moishetreats and @Adam Wheeler for your feedback.

    Despite I got cooled - happens - it's good to see that I was able to make a proper analysis and take the right decision. Looks like poker training and wandering on RCP forum make us better players :)
    I do want you to consider one facet of your small cbet: many opponents will read that as a weak hand, and that can often induce a raise by V. In this case, you read it all correctly, got it in good, and got sucked out on. So, again, no major problems.

    But know that your cbet size looks weak. A more "standard" cbet size -- 2/3 to pot -- would continue the story of strength and would more likely induce a lesser hand (like 55) to fold.

    This is a good point and I asked myself how much should I C-Bet. At the end, I considered this more like a 3-bet pot than a 2-bet pot; thus I size my C-bet smaller (1/3 of the pot instead of a "casual" 50-75%).
    Several articles about c-betting in 3-bet pots support delaying c-bet (which here may not be the best) and sizing smaller, with the same thoughts as MW pot: ranges are unusual and because of preflop action and we already showed a lot of strength (=we don't need to size big on flop to continue our story of a great hand).


    How do you guy size your C-bet after squeeze ?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    How do you guy size your C-bet after squeeze ?

    I like to keep the pressure on. Otherwise, it allows other people to call squeezes lightly since they know that they'll get a cheap price to see a turn and continue in the hand.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,367 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you had bet larger it would be fine and normal enough, but the pot wouldn't have so well played. In a three bet pot, ranges are naturally narrowed. There is therefore less incentive to spend extra dead money buying up villain's equity with big cbets - that makes more sense in two bet pots where ranges are less defined and the stacks are not yet in play but need to be threatened while the SPR is still high. Players on the whole like to spend money buying up equity because it keeps them from being bluffed and provides pressure, but because your bet represented a wider number of combos, it can induce favorable action, limit the cost of your cbets, gain action for your premiums, and so is far more theoretically precise. Smaller bets working with the right range in the right spots - much like limping - are for those who can handle the consequences - and here you did.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2017
    Nice hand and analysis. If only I had this in my 3 and 4 bet pots I'd be more ready for $2-5.
  • ShamanShaman Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    When Vil sat down you can still have *some * reads. How did Vil buyin? Was he comfortable? How did he stack his chips? Did he give off confidence of having played lots of poker before? (not representative of skill) Did he buyin with table games chips or poker room chips? Just small clues can sometimes be found here also even though its the first hand you have played with Vil.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Replying to an August 2017 post; you do like necromancy @Shaman , don't you? ;-)

    Now, I don't think there is much if any information from how they sit or how they stack their chips. I think only extreme case will be noticeable, which concern mostly if only terrible players.

    Even some of such "tell" can even be counter-intuitive. For example, I'm / was a strong 2/5$ reg ; yet I'm still unable to shuffle my chips - which is a casual tell of someone not used to play in a casino / not a good player.

    Bottom line: don't try to fish for any tell. Better stick to a sound and balanced strategy.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,745 -
    We've had this discussion before. Provided we check our cognitive biases, I'm convinced that there is information to be gleaned before an opponent plays a hand. Are we sometimes misled? Sure, there was a Vegas local who used to stick a convention lanyard round his neck before sitting in the Wynn $2/$5. But he went to those lengths precisely because certain appearance tells are meaningful.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • ShamanShaman Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    In a vacuum I agree with you Red. But I have had many times where someone sits down and you can just tell they are a terrible player. Its the aura and a combination of other factors like stacking chips, dress, mannerisms, etc.
    Sometimes you can be misled for a hand or two like Kat points out, but once hands are played they cant hide for long that they are a studied or serious player. Playing against terrible players is great and it helps to get hints that they are terrible in order to maximize your poker lines against them rather than relying on your solid default lines.

    (apologize for the necromancy but it fits with my SN! This was a good thread that you linked in another post and just wanted to add a thought I had)
  • AngrypigAngrypig Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    edited January 4
    Interesting hand, here few thoughts, you said table dynamic loose and sticky, are you really expecting every one fold? if not you will play out of position for big pot. i would opt for call. check all flops, lead out small when hit top set.

    utg stradle, and call your big squeeze, with another 5 players to act and he is new at the table you are short to him OOP you gave him way too optimistic range.

    next cbet is ok sizing is ok
    his 3bet is not over bet, pot size 3bet would be 560 anyway your hand is fold, your shove is bad you have 20% equity

    with all respect good luck at the table.

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