Flop CR w/ TPOK

Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 69 ✭✭
Is anyone stacking off here ever? Opponent is: 32/5 with 52% Agg (55 hands).

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
UTG ($89.72)
HJ ($40.06)
CO ($52.8)
HERO ($74.13)
SB ($63.25)
BB ($24.48)

Dealt to Hero Q:club: T:club:

UTG Folds, HJ Calls $0.5 (Rem. Stack: 39.56), CO Folds, HERO Raises To $2 (Rem. Stack: 72.13), SB Folds, BB Calls $1.5 (Rem. Stack: 22.48), HJ Calls $1.5 (Rem. Stack: 38.06)

Flop ($6.25) 6:spade: 2:spade: Q:heart:
BB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Bets $3.62 (Rem. Stack: 68.51), BB Folds, HJ Raises To $17.11 (Rem. Stack: 20.95), HERO Folds

Comments

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 16
    At least i calls, i'm not folding. Think about what he limp/calls pre-flop. Then how it relates to that board. Yes he could have you beat badly but he have a lot of worst hands also that outnumber his nuts and you unblock his best FD a lot. But ultimately with the stack size, i think you could shove here vs. that V type and probably do a dance on you're stool.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    If HJ wants to play for stacks, then this is not the logical bet, IMO (of course, maybe that's why he's betting it). Since this was his bet, I think that there is a strong chance that he wants to take the pot down now. If that's the case, then a lot of semi-bluffs are in his range.

    I'm not sure that I could find a call here given the stack depth. I think that a flat-call would induce a lot of folding errors on the turn. So, if you're prepared to call, then I'd be shoving here, retaining just a margin of fold equity.
  • Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 69 ✭✭
    At least i calls, i'm not folding. Think about what he limp/calls pre-flop. Then how it relates to that board. Yes he could have you beat badly but he have a lot of worst hands also that outnumber his nuts and you unblock his best FD a lot. But ultimately with the stack size, i think you could shove here vs. that V type and probably do a dance on you're stool.

    Thanks, i didnt see it that way.
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 247 ✭✭
    I am atleast calling, however checking the flop is not a bad option, as your hand only has one street of value. This eliminates getting xr by draws on the flop, and can evaluate the turn. If checked to on the turn and it is not a spade, then bet half pot.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    You need to be careful navigating post flop vs passive opponents such as these. He could be limp calling with a myriad of hands that are crushing you (AQ, KQ, QJ, 66, 22). Even if you only think he limp calls with AQ, KQ half the time and raises all of his flush draws, you're about 40% ish equity wise. Against a more aggressive opponent you can significantly discount big Qx and big flush draws with over card outs, but vs a passive opponent you need to keep these hands in his range.

    You cant bet/fold this hand as you have a decent chunk of equity vs his range. I think I prefer checking this hand back to not only balance your check back range (you will be checking back quite often in a multi way pot) but to potentially induce bets on the turn and river. You can give a free card here because you're not scared of many turns (spades and A), and you don't have a hand that can bet multiple streets for value anyway.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    Standard value bet/fold vs. a villain running this passive over an actionable sample. Yeah he could have the NFD, but QJ/KQ/AQ/66/22 are all much more likely.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 17
    You guys are saying he is passive but you base your judgment on pre-flop stats. We dont have anything else regarding post-flop play. Every poker players are different and pre-flop stats are not necessarily a good post-flop indicator.

    We will encounter players that run 32/5 pre-flop and suddenly, once they invested more then they would normally do by just limping and seeing a flop, they defend very aggressively post.

    You certainly have seen the same phenomena with players running 14/12 for example, they are aggressive pre-flop but play very fit or fold post and fold a lot. Pre-flop aggression not necessarily transposing to their post-flop play.

    We need to be careful with how we link stats on different streets.
    Ray K wrote: »
    Is anyone stacking off here ever? Opponent is: 32/5 with 52% Agg

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 17
    Looking back, we probably dont have enough equity vs. a shoving range where he could have enough better Qx and given pot odds. We need to strongly believe that V will bluff with a lot more then what would be natural for him to do on this board.
  • Ray KRay K Red Chipper Posts: 69 ✭✭
    edited August 17
    We need to strongly believe that V will bluff with a lot more then what would be natural for him to do on this board.

    Main reason i folded, I just didnt want to risk it
  • O DO D Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭
    It seems to me this is a bit of an eccentric bet therefore I would need a better read on the player. I might let go of the $5.60 invetsed and observe what he'is doing.
    Sounds a bit passive but I don't want to gift the guy $50 bucks if he were playing straightforward his 2 pairs or QJ etc.