Was this an intelligent bluff shove?

bulletproof-92@outlook.com[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
Hi guys. I had this situation in an online MTT today. I'll give you the hand breakdown to give you time to form an opinion, then I'll give you the result of the hand.

$16.50 NLHE MTT
60/120 blinds, 15 ante. Seat #3 is the button

Seat 1: antidinamic (6488 in chips)
Seat 2: ante_geia_AA (3593 in chips)
Seat 3: ktr73 (7032 in chips)
Seat 4: NTLbiysksc2 (4391 in chips)
Seat 6: muugii1111 (8626 in chips)
Seat 7: LCSageMK (9293 in chips)
Seat 8: dipolo1910 (5208 in chips) VILLAIN
Seat 9: MichaelGD92 (4113 in chips) HERO

HOLE CARDS
Dealt to MichaelGD92 :As:Jd
LCSageMK: folds
dipolo1910: raises 120 to 240
MichaelGD92: calls 240

antidinamic: folds
ante_geia_AA: folds
ktr73: folds
NTLbiysksc2: folds
muugii1111: calls 120

FLOP :2h:8d:2s
muugii1111: checks
dipolo1910: bets 385
MichaelGD92: calls 385

muugii1111: folds

TURN :2h:8d:2s:Td
dipolo1910: checks
MichaelGD92: bets 800
dipolo1910: calls 800


RIVER :2h:8d:2s:Td:3d
dipolo1910: checks
MichaelGD92: bets 2673 and is all-in
dipolo1910: calls 2673




So on the flop I thought AJ might be good. When the turn came and villain checked, I read that as the Villain hadn't hit the board. So I took the lead, hoping to induce a fold. one the river came, I decided that I could rep either the runner flush or AT and that both would be stronger than what he saw holding. Villain tanked for a very long time, using up his whole time bank. He eventually made the call with pocket 7s and I busted the tournament.

The other thing that may have been a problem is my preflop play. I'm unsure if 3-betting in that scenario would have ensured there was no action behind me or just left me open to a tough squeeze. Any advice would be super :)
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Comments

  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    I would have 3bet or folded pre. AJo is weak against other ep opens, so it's read dependent - what's he opening here? How often will he open a hand early that he'll then fold to the 3bet? What's the plan on the flop if a J or A hits? How sure are you that you're going to be ahead?

    As played, we have a dead board that prob didn't hit him either, but is likely to still be ahead here - so I don't agree with the reason for the flop bet. Again, think out the hands he's opening early. I think AJ is going to be the bottom of his open range. So again, what's our plan if a J or A comes on the turn? If you want to turn the hand into a bluff what about check/raising now and taking it down, getting him to fold AQ/AK combos and maybe his smaller PPs. If he reraises then we can leave the hand behind, and if he calls we can decide whether this really wants to become a bluffing hand on the turn.

    As played on the turn, I'm generally picking hands that have some chance at seeing value by the river to bluff, so I don't think this is it. If this were AJ diamonds, for sure of course go crazy, any Ax diamonds, J9 (not that you're likely here with that combo), etc. At some point I think you want to pick better spots. Again, as played, ok... you stabbed to try and get him to fold out and he didn't bite, but now you're telling a FD story. By the river you're committed to the idea that your flush came in and I suppose the push might have worked. So in the end I'm not necessarily hating this. Tournament life and all... Is there any way to quantify how often this bluff needs to work to make this profitable, starting on the turn? In cash it's calculable but in tournaments I don't know how you value your life - it feels like there has to be a premium for that.

    Why didn't he believe that you hit a flush by the river? 77 is a bold hero call. Maybe if you'd raised him pre, which he would have called, and then were more aggressively driving the hand, maybe he would have given you more credit by the river?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When facing an EP raise i am usually folding AJ in this spot. Its not a terrible call cause stacks are pretty short @ 30-35bb because of ante so top pair holds more value.

    3 betting is ok but again your facing an ep raise and you are in ep yourself with lots of players behind.

    Folding preflop is best option to me.

    Postflop.
    Ep player raised then bet into two players on 822 board who likely have 22-JJ in their range. Because of this i dont expect him to have total air worse than AJ because it will take multiple barrels to get someone off a hand such as 99. For this reason i think his cbet frequency should be low.

    When bluffing you should pick a spot that has a little more back door equity. For example if you had :As:Js on :2h:8d:2s you have overs + bdfd. Maybe on T22 you have bdsd to barrel if a Q or K come on the turn.

    I think you put yourself in a bad spot that doesnt rep much besides 88 for a boat. You shouldnt have too many flushes in your range based on your flop call. I think his 77 was very optimistic as was your play.
  • bulletproof-92@outlook.com[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    That's awesome, thanks.

    @zampana1970 That advice makes me realise that I've been confusing open ranges with calling ranges. I my experience so far with low-stakes play, players calling a raise could have any two cards in the deck. That's made it hard to define any real ranges, hence my explanation that I just "felt like" he was weaker than AT. But now I've realised that opening ranges are a different matter all-together and should be easier to define.

    He probably didn't believe the flush as it's hard to believe that I floated on the flop with just a back-door flush draw. If the villain was thinking in ranges, that would likely narrow me down to AJd+ and that's about it.

    @Austin Yeah I think optimistic is the perfect word for it. I sensed he didn't have much, and I ended up being right, but I was too optimistic in thinking he would believe the story I was selling.

    As a new player, I've found it hard not to overvalue AJ. You''re the third person who's told me it's a hand that can get you in trouble. I really should start paying attention to that.

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