Am I supposed to fold Kings here?

SuessSuess Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
$100 ($25 bounty) NLHE tournament at Foxwoods

Hero: 22yo white male but probably assumed younger. Been playing standard TAG and am one of three bigger stacks along with V.

Villian: 40s black male been the most active at the table but not crazy by any means. Seems to know a bit about the game and plays well.

History: I opened :AS::7S: to 2.5bb in the cutoff and he 3bet to 850 and I folded. Another hand I opened :TS::Td after a few limps to 2.5bb and he defended in the BB. Flop :KC::QD::4D: and I cbet 3bb. He calls. Turn :5c goes check-check. River is the :KD: and he bets 5bb into a pot of roughly 13bb. I call and he overturns :JC::TC: for a busted flush and straight draw.

OTT:
2 limps to me :Ks:Kd in the cutoff open to 2bb and he calls. Effective stack is his at ~28bb (I have ~37bb)

Flop (4.5bb) :JH::TD::5S: I cbet 2bb and he calls.

Turn (8.5bb) :8C: I bet 5bb and he calls after a slight hesitation.

River (18.5bb) :TS: He leads out for 6bb

Hero?

Caveat: This is my first forum post, so please correct any posting errors. I am mostly a cash game player, so please correct any betsize/general tournament play errors in addition to any overall logic/play errors.

I'll post results and my thoughts accordingly. Thanks!

Comments

  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    Definitely not folding KK here. He can have some weaker pair+draw hands and some top pair holdings. His bet doesn't scream strength and the price he's laying you is too good to pass up. I'd expect Jx here a lot from V.
  • SuessSuess Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    @Ninjah But isn't his line so strong? Call a preflop raise and then call twice and lead into the aggressor when the board pairs on the river?
  • ZazouZazou Red Chipper Posts: 93 ✭✭
    Nope, I'm never folding here, either. I assume you think that since you played a similar hand before where you caught his bluff he's more likely to have a real hand this time? Could be, but that's not a reason to even think about folding for this kind of price, imo. Why do you consider it? Did he have the T and now you're second-guessing yourself? ;-)

    Very confused by the bet-sizing throughout here. Everybody, including you, seems to be awfully timid o.O ... I get that tourneys play differently than cash games, but raising barely more than or literally the minimum over several limpers?? And are you really saying that you got HU to the flop every time despite that? Technically you shouldn't with those raises, especially if there's an ante. Which doesn't seem to be the case, though, since in your KK-hand you min-raise over 2 limpers, get a call, and yet the pot is only 4.5BB on the flop ... Now, I suck at math, but that doesn't seem to add up at all?
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    Suess wrote: »
    @Ninjah But isn't his line so strong? Call a preflop raise and then call twice and lead into the aggressor when the board pairs on the river?

    He will have a hand like T9 here sometimes but I view this more as a blocker bet than a value bet. He wants to get to showdown cheaply and doesn't want to see a 12-14bb river bet from you.
  • SuessSuess Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    @Zazou The table was pretty tight and stacks were pretty short. Average stack was around 15bb so I didn't think I needed to make it big to get folds, and I wanted to make it less in case I get shoved on and have to fold. I have also have sunk myself in tourney's before by betting 1/2-3/4 the pot like is typical in cash games, so this time I was trying to keep it smaller and accomplish the same with less.

    Admittedly, I probably have misremembered how many players went to the flop, but it was never more than three and, and, excluding this V who was better than them, they always played very fit or fold postflop.

    You are correct about the math error. All I know is my stack was cut in half after this hand and that his river bet was 4800 chips with the blinds at 400-800, and that it was about 1/3 of the pot, which contributed to me calling.

    @Ninjah But if I'm going for three streets of value here, my hand has to be quite strong, meaning he can safely fold most his one-pair hands, no? Doesn't his bet only fold out my bluffs and get called or raised by better? I think the strongest he can reasonably have here, given that he defended pre and called two streets is AJ.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    @Suess Count up the number of combos that he'd play this way vs both the hands you beat and the hands you lose to and compare it to the price he's giving you and you'll see that it's an easy call.

    Also, if he was very strong, I'd expect him to check-jam the river rather then lead out weakly for 1/3 pot after you've fired two streets.
  • SuessSuess Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    @Ninjah Agreed, but like I said before, unless I'm very strong I'm checking this back most of the time, and he might've been afraid of missing that value. My plan was to check back if he hadn't bet.

    This is what I came up with:

    I beat: AJ (12), KJ (6), QJ (12), 99 (6), 89s (3), AQ (16), KQ (8) =63 (without AQ=47)
    I lose: JJ (3), 88 (3), 55 (3), AT (8), KT (4), QT (8)=29 (without JJ, KT and QT=14)

    He probably 3bets jacks a lot of the time and AQ a tad less frequently than jacks but still fairly often. For river ranges, I would consider these quite wide, but I purposefully did that to include both worst and best case scenarios for myself.

    So, 63/92=68% I win, meaning I could safely call a 2x pot bet and I am being offered 4:1, which makes it a very easy call, +EV of 52% if my math and understanding are right.

    Eliminating AQ from his range on the river and JJ, KT, and QT makes me a winner 47/61=77% and a call is even more profitable long-term. Eliminate AT like I did at the table and even better still.

    Please check my combo counting and calculations.

    Thanks for your input, guys. I did call and he flipped AT suited. At the table, I ultimately called for the following reasons:

    1) Getting 4:1
    2) Did not put any tens in his range, for I didn't think he would call two streets with second pair.
    2) If I call and am correct, I'm poised to have a deep run in the tournament.
    3) He had attempted a bluff before against me and was on the active side.

    @Zazou You were right haha. I was second guessing myself and looking for validation, and after looking at the combinatorics off the table I know I made the right decision long-term. Thanks

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