1/2 What to do against river min-raise.

sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
edited September 11 in Live Poker Hands
V1: CO He's a station y player. He's calling down post-flop a lot more than he should. It's not surprising for him to call with many weak draws/pairs 200. Limps with a large portion of his raise. He's makes a few bluffs here or there, but is not really a super aggressive player. He's clearly more of a rec-ish player. 250 to start the hand.

I'm in the BB with pocket :3S: :3H:

V1 limps, Btn limps, SB completes I check my option. No point in squeezing against someone who wont' fold. Pretty standard here.

8 Flop is pretty nice. :4S: :JH: :3D:

SB checks, I check, CO bets 7. BTN folds, SB folds. I call.

On hindsight, I think I made a bit of a mistake here, I should probably raise. I don't need to worry about folding a stationy player, who's calling with any draw/ Jx, 4x, or even 3x (which we block. I don't think he's pure bluffing that often. I think it was the " I flop a set and scared my opponent folds".

22 Turn is the :6D:

A bit of a ugly turn, Not very badly so. 57/52 gets there, brings a bdfd. I check, he bets 15, I check-raise to 60. I expect calls from a lot of worst hands.(probably folding to 3-bet). He calls.

144 River is the :2H:

I bet 60 trying to get some sort of thin-ish value here. He min-raises to 120. I don't think he's going to bluff here, but maybe once in a while with something like, Axdd. I was planning on bet folding, but considering we were min-raised instead, and I'm getting a great price, are we good enough here? Could he potentially be overvaluing something like J4, or 64, or 43, or having some spaz.









Comments

  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 186 ✭✭✭
    It's a limped pot. Anyone can have anything. He can easily have a straight here, but he can also have some two pairs, top pairs, weird bluffs, etc. The pot is $324 and you need to call $60. You need to be good 18.5% of the times. If he has a straight 81.5% of the time then you can fold. Does he have it that often? Unlikely.

    You wouldn't be in this position had you raised pre. Don't limp because everyone else are doing it. Your game is not going to improve. All you do is end up in pots where you have no way of putting your villains on a range of hands and it's very, very hard to get paid with the good hands you make. Also, it's too obvious when you only start raising your premium hands.

    The odds of you flopping a set are 7.5 to 1 or 11.8%. Raise it up pre-flop and give yourself the perfect stack-to-pot ratio needed to stack your opponents when you make it. It's recommended that you're in a position to win at least 10 times the invested amount given the probability of flopping the set . However this is only advisable against premium hands (where you can put your villain on one) where you're certain you'll get paid, because they're the ones that are most likely paying you off. Splitsuit recommended some time If I recall correctly, that you should try to be able to win at least 20 times the amount invested, under most circumstances, because you won't get paid every time (It's fine to set-mine a player who raises to $10 if you both got above $200, we want to be able to win bigger to make up for the times we don't get paid). However you want to be the aggressor when given the chance, you don't want to only make money in poker by making good hands.

    Just call the river and move onto the next hand if villain has the straight. Then start making plays where villain's range makes sense and you can get paid with your made hands. If too many villains are calling then you should check Soto's concept of the Pain Threshold. There are plenty of videos here on the site that will help you but I think that Miller's The Course will also help you a lot with your general play.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 800 ✭✭✭
    Jónas S wrote: »
    You wouldn't be in this position had you raised pre. Don't limp because everyone else are doing it. Your game is not going to improve.

    Sorry, but here I strongly disagree. @sp231 check makes sense as he is unlikely to find enough fold - esp. against the station. If we can make him fold now or later, we have no reason to raise with a hand which will hit the board badly and being OOP.

    But
    sp231 wrote: »
    8 Flop is pretty nice. :4S: :JH: :3D:

    SB checks, I check, CO bets 7. BTN folds, SB folds. I call.

    On hindsight, I think I made a bit of a mistake here, I should probably raise.
    I agree you've made a mistake. I disagree about the raise. In fact, you should just easily bet yourself (pot bet). If the station comes along, continue pot betting (or even overbetting) to pay him pay the max for his inelasticity.

    **
    Now you've a serious hand reading problem. Looks at his line, Villain:
    - limp pre
    - bet flop on J43r
    - bet/call turn on J436xxdd
    - min-raise river on J4362xxddx

    Which hands fits this ? Mostly, what hands does he has and bets on flop: 65? 75? 54? 55? JJ? 44? AJ? Ad4d ?
    He is a station, but a) what is his limping range (you've to give him a range) and b) how does he play postflop ?
  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    His limping range is around very wide, probably like 60-70% of the deck. I do think he does raise some hands. JJ+, AQ+. Probably limps things like AJ. Before he min-raises the river I would say lots of Jx, 4x, some 6x he was bluffing with and made a pair, two pair combos (J6, both off and sutied, etc). When he min raises the river. I expect lots of 5x combos, some weird bluffs, and some overplayed two pairs. I think he might more adapt to shove his straights, then to min-raise his straights, but I don't think I can make some strong statement on that.


    My check was on a dynamic that I didn't mention. BTN was the guy that would "frequently" take a shot at the pot, but he ended up folding so I didn't think it was important to mention.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭✭
    I agree with Red. I would lead and bet all three streets.

    As played what are you repping on the turn? A lot of 2 pairs, straights, & sets. If villain knows this why would he raise this river? Only makes sense for him to raise 5x here. Min raise on the river is 99% value and because you can rep some 5x yourself its unlikey he raises worse.

    Fold. A5, 52s, 75, 65, 54, etc..its. Limped pot so almost all pair + 5 or gut shot with a 5 are in his range.

    Also stacks on the river are only 183? Calling 60 to win $324 giving you little over 5 to 1. His bluffing range for min raising the river or most players in general is less than 5% so despite your good odds you need better
  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    Think villain is just playing his hand, I don't think he really thinking about what hands I'm rep . I 100% agree it only makes sense to raise 5x, but is he?

    Yeah stacks on the river 183, something close that behind each.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    Think villain is just playing his hand, I don't think he really thinking about what hands I'm rep . I 100% agree it only makes sense to raise 5x, but is he?

    Yeah stacks on the river 183, something close that behind each.

    What do you think his bet call x\r range is? Ton of 5x. Unlikely he is raising 2 pair on the river, if he is going to do that he may have just 3 bet the turn.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    V1 limps, Btn limps, SB completes I check my option. No point in squeezing against someone who wont' fold. Pretty standard here.

    Why is it standard? Is it standard for me also? Should we always check back 33 here?










  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    edited September 11
    it's a lot of 5x, random two pairs, 6x, Jx. maybe 7x with a pair (74,73,76)

    I do agree with you on the last point. He's probably not raising two pair on the river, because he's like to 3-bet that on the turn some percentage of the time, which means I have to raise/call the turn. But I can't say it's definitely out of the realm of possibilities. Seen villain do weird things.

    Then I guess this becomes a fold then, because it's hard to come up with lots of spas. Unless if he's the guy to raise smaller bet size, with more hands because he's thinking they're weak......

    In this situation I can defintiely squeeze here, but I can check against call happy player, that I can still theoratically get stack in by the river.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    it's a lot of 5x, random two pairs, 6x, Jx. maybe 7x with a pair (74,73,76)

    I do agree with you on the last point. He's probably not raising two pair on the river, because he's like to 3-bet that on the turn some percentage of the time, which means I have to bet/call the turn. But I can't say it's definitely out of the realm of possibilities. Seen villain do weird things.

    Then I guess this becomes a fold then, because it's hard to come up with lots of spas. Unless if he's the guy to raise smaller bet size, with more hands because he's thinking they're weak......

    In this situation I can defintiely squeeze here, but I can check against call happy player, that I can still theoratically get stack in by the river.

    I think your giving him too wide of a range to call a check raise. I dont see a ton of players putting in 25% of their stack on a gutter ball.

    I think you should limit it to 8 outs or more. 5x and fd, and some two pairs.
  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    edited September 11
    usually I agree , but he's price inelastic and call happy so, his range is definitely wider than normal.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 11
    Given the size of his bet, and the possible nuts hands he can have here, it's tough to find enough bluffs for him to have when he can literally represent almost any 5x.

    And given the fact that you could have some 5x here also it is unlikely he would raise worst often enough.

    I think weaker players in general have difficulties to value properly and get paid when they chase and hit and his min bet seems a lot like the case.

    How about you called and he had 57 with spade and diamond in the order of your choice.
  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    edited September 11
    He didn't have 57

    I do think he raises worse though, he's not really thinking about if I have that many 5x.

    But I like that though, in terms of valuing properly. It's very possible that he min-bet is him not knowing what to do here.

  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    edited September 11
    ^ Sorry, meant to clarify (can't edit now). He could potentially raise two pairs on the river/ random "value" hands. But IDK he does that often, because I agree with Austin that's those are going to be 3-bets on the river some% of the time.

    Tanked for a while. Clearly not loving it. Toss in the call and we lose to A5. Turn range has a lot of 5x in it, but he's calling turn with lots of hands, because he likes to call lol.
    Agree that it's probably still a fold here if we believe he's 3-betting his worse pair hands on the turn. In general, against more people who don't what they're doing, I don't like folding as much, because people overplay hands, people spas, people do weird things. etc.

    I think that's it for this hand, Thanks guys for all your help!
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 800 ✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    ^ Sorry, meant to clarify (can't edit now). He could potentially raise two pairs on the river/ random "value" hands. But IDK he does that often, because I agree with Austin that's those are going to be 3-bets on the river some% of the time.
    No, he is a bad player, a station-like bad player. These play their value hands very straightforwardly. Except a 5X for a straight, what other hands he has and are improved by :2H: ?? They (almost)never over-values hands - they usually have the contrary problem: they under-value bet their value hands. Raisin here is 90% with 5X and 10% with 44.

    Knowing to let it go it important (as knowing how to properly bet here as well) ;-)

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 800 ✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    Before he min-raises the river I would say lots of Jx, 4x, some 6x he was bluffing with and made a pair, two pair combos (J6, both off and sutied, etc). When he min raises the river. I expect lots of 5x combos, some weird bluffs, and some overplayed two pairs.


    This is wrong, very wrong! You can't give him " Jx, 4x, some 6x he was bluffing with and made a pair, two pair combo" first and then suddenly out of the blue "expect lots of 5x combos, some weird bluffs"
    Once you give him a range on an earlier street (starting preflop and then being linear to narrow their range), you can NOT add new combos afterwards because it would fit a later street. He needs these combos (5X) since the beginning.

    This is an major thing to learn for a good hand reading skill. For more, dig into "The Law of Linear" presented by Splitsuit - as well as most of his hand reading material.
  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    edited September 12
    @Red I would really appreciate if you stop making sarcastic remarks in your comments. I don't find it humorous or entertaining to say the least.


    However, your point is correct. I made a bad typo there. I forgot to write 5x there, I thought I completely did write a lot of 5x things there in my original post, my mistake. Sorry, I think I originally wrote 5x there. I did not add any more combos. Obviously, 5x is in his turn betting/chk calling range there.











  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 1,872 ✭✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    @Red I would really appreciate if you stop making sarcastic remarks in your comments. I don't find it humorous or entertaining to say the least.

    i dont see a lot of sacasm in Red's response.
    maybe you're miffed that he presents a smart, solid arguement (as do others) as to why this is a snap-fold.
    it's a 4-liner to a straight!
    u just check-raised the player on the turn!
    if you were V - would you try a suicide min-raise bluff on the river?
    I wouldn't.
    it's spew.

    also thinking that a player would limp with J3, J4, J6 is absurd!
    think "whell Aces", suited connectors and gappers.
    trying to find stupid hands that make no sense is a waste of time.
    and biting the hand that's feeding you very good advice is even more crazy.

    if you want to improve, put your ego in a box and lock it away.
    then come back with an "open mind" and seek to learn.
    guys responding to your very, very, very basic hand-reading hand history are taking time out of their day to share their knowledge.
    they don't get paid for this...
    nobody owes you anything.
    be grateful that they're actually engaging in well-thought out posts.

    geez....
  • sp231sp231 Red Chipper Posts: 41 ✭✭
    edited September 13
    I'm not disagreeing that it's a fold, (I even posted in my spoiler tag it's a fold). Rethinking the situation, I agree.

    I also agree that Red is doubt a good poster on the site. He makes very good informative posts. I'm not arguing that. I'm agree with Red

    I just don't think it's necessarily to post a video of someone saying "oh God no" is largely unnecessary and doesn't contribute much to the discussion. I did make a (admittedly my fault) typo. Red is not responsible for knowing that I forgot to write 5x( I thought I did). However, he could have just said to me in a post. "you make a big mistake you can't do that", versus trying to "humor" it up.

    I'm not trying to attack Red here.

    I apologize if you think I'm being sensitive, but I think what I'm saying is quite reasonable.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,733 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,184 ✭✭✭✭
    sp231 wrote: »
    I just don't think it's necessarily to post a video of someone saying "oh God no" is largely unnecessary and doesn't contribute much to the discussion.
    This video isn't of just "someone". This is Michael Scott, Regional Manager at Dunder Mifflin Paper Company. If Michael Scott doesn't contribute much to this discussion, then I don't know who can.

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    If Michael Scott doesn't contribute much to this discussion, then I don't know who can.

    I'm pretty sure you know who can.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,184 ✭✭✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    If Michael Scott doesn't contribute much to this discussion, then I don't know who can.

    I'm pretty sure you know who can.

    lol, I hope you're talking about....Chuck Norris.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 800 ✭✭✭
    edited September 13
    @sp231 don't worry, I didn't feel attacked or threatened :)
    Scott Micheal and this meme are so famous on the Internet. I thought it would be a good humour touch to emphasize the importance of this point of hand reading - which apparently was but a typo.
    Feel free to put my things in jello as retribution :-D
    We should be able to laugh about everything, especially about ourselves
    persuadeo wrote: »
    There are no famous Swiss comedians.

    Nope. And if you rely on Swiss humour, you gonna have a bad time haha
  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 247 ✭✭
    Calling stations ONLY raise with the nuts!