When 4-bet 99 finds a flushy board

RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited September 2017 in Live Poker Hands
Hi everybody,
I'm now playing 25/50Kc in Prague. Despite the face value (50Kc is worth ~2$), this stake is worth 2/5 to the local live cost. But because it's a touristic city with a weak currency, many foreigners play 25/50. So the stakes looks like 2/5$, but it's very soft - I've the feeling that it's way softer than 1/2$ in Vegas. Good for me, as I'm crushing the game :)

I play a hand Friday night, a hand where I did for sure a preflop mistake and maybe a turn blunder. Surely the hardest hand I played here.
I gladly take your feedback. Free fire !

SITUATION
25/50 Kc in Ambassador (Prague, CZ).
Table is very soft. Many weak players, except 1 calling station and 1 NIT. No good player. People don't limp, but they call easily 4-5X bet preflop and sometime 3-bet. So it's usual to go MW. Worst players (and with small stacks, 60-90BB) are on Hero's left; bad/meh players (and with big stacks, 150-300BB) are on Heros' right: Jesus' seat! :)
3-bet happens sometimes, but these are "1,5%" 3-bet (QQ+, sometimes with JJ or AK). No 4-bet so far.

Main Villain is a North African-like guy. He is watching a video on his phone. He is a weak TAG: has a stealing range, squeezed before but didn't 3-bet "normally" (without previous callers). May be fit-or-fold postflop (fold often to aggression post). My feeling is: Villain isn't a studied player, but has watched some video online and play regularly.
On the direct right of Hero.
Stack: ~18'000 (eff. stack)

Hero: is crushing the table, mostly because of luck (but they still paid me :) ). Image of a strong player - some Villains commented earlier on how Hero was "crushing the table". Here with a friend (sitting behind Hero and watching Hero's hands and the game). Hero play solid TAG strategy, not a fancy or loose range.
Stack: ~20'000
Hero has :9C::9D: and is SB

PREFLOP
UTG+1: opens 150Kc (3BB)
3 calls (but not from the other big stacks)
BU (main Villain) : squeeze 600Kc
SB (Hero): 4-bet 1600Kc
Fold to Villain who looks at Hero's and calls after some thoughts.

Considering the table dynamic, we could cold call. It will dispose other Villains to call. But... I will then have to play fit-or-fold OOP postflop, relying on a) hitting my set and b) on a board I can get paid.
I don't want to play bingo poker, so I decide to 4-bet both for semi-bluff and for isolation (against Villain).
I see here a bet sizing mistake: I should have bet way bigger. More around 2500-3000.
1000 more is too lite to really have FE against Villain, who has a good price and position. Problem is: bc it's the 1st 4bet and the price is good + position, I'm unsure about Villain's range, esp. about his broadway and AXs call tendencies. Becuase of that, I think (off table) that:
- V squeezes with 166 combos AA-TT,AKo-A9o,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A7s,KQs-KTs,QJs,JTs
- V calls with 134 combos: QQ-TT,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs
awsu6ptx9tmq.png


FLOP
pot: 3900
:TS::TD::5S:
Hero: bet 2200
Villain: call

I think it's a fine board to bet, mostly for value and protection. I can extract chips from FD and overcards. I will be call by better too: quads, trips, overpairs.
V calls with 59/119 combos : quads (1), trips (10), overpairs (12), AK/AQ (33), FD (6). Maybe I overestimate his calling range, esp. with overcards...
nynsysnfqr74.png

TURN
pot: 8300
:3S:(a :SPADE: brick)
Hero: check
Villain: bet 4'000
Hero: raise all-in 16'000
Villain: tank...

Now I hate my life with 99. I feel way behind, either him having TX or :SPADE: flush. For that I don't think I have much FE by betting here - he could also float 1 card with a FD (like QsQx). I didn't not really have a plan - shame, shame - and feel trapped. Hero check, but knowing (muscular memory) that Villain will stab often.
And Villain stab for half pot - looking like a value bet.

At this moment I know I can only win by bluffing. The maniac in me took control and shove. Having the feeling that V may fold a lot / all TX, overpairs and nut FD (AsKx/AsQx) he could stab with.
But there was no plan. For that, I feel I made a blunder (and @kagey gonna trash me again for this high variance high aggression play ^_^'' ).

Resolution:
Villain: ... and after having physically suffered on his chair, fold.


TURN OFF TABLE ANALYSIS
Right after the hand, I already thought that he mostly fold because he was weak and should have called me as OOP I would surely underbet a monster hand and not C-R it (=unbalanced range)...
A C-R range in a 4-bet pot (or pseudo 3-bet) shows a monstrous strength and I could do it only if Villain is sticky/station (he is not. more on the weak side) or If I'm betting against surely the 2nd best (here not as TX is large part of his value range).

As he tank for a long time and suffered on his chair, he surely had something. Maybe QsQx, maybe TX, maybe a medium flush afraid of a A high flush.

The only good thing I'm happy about my shove is: I'm representing a monster hand (my value is only flush at this point) and my hand doesn't block any TX, overpairs and overcards with FD (like AxKs). Without much equity and with surely no SDV, 99 is a good candidate for a bluff.

Is the shove +EV?
He stabbed regularly - as any TAG do - and he could think I don't have any :SPADE: in my hand as I would have Turn C-bet. He could think many of his combos are good v. me having overcards and missed my "once-and-done" bluff or a scared overpairs.
I'm not sure about his betting range (does he bet FD?) and calling range (would he call with TX or FD?).
My bluff BE % is 16000/(16000+12300) = 56% . Does he fold at least 56% ?
ch99i7x8y64f.png
If it's too small: right click on the pic and then click on "view image"

So in general, I think it's a barely +EV shove for bluff.
But since Villain may stab often and is more on the weak side than on the sticky side, he should have a gap between these 2 ranges wide enough for us to be +EV. And we still have little equity (2 to 4 outs) when call too.

Also: if Villain calls with more AXs preflop, then our bluff is really bad because Villain has many made flushes, which decreases significantly his folding %.


CONCLUSION
I'm not so happy about the hand. The maniac in me took control, hoping that throwing chips on Villain's face will make Hero win the hand.
And nonetheless Hero won the hand... luckily because of a premium situation: against a weak Villain, able to stab/fold often, on the bottom of his value range.

I think the too lite 4-bet preflop created this bad situation. Raising more would have create a better preflop FE and narrow Villain's range (mostly: way fewer / no TX).

About the turn: C-R find a lot of fold, but is unbalanced. I think a better line would have been to underbet (~40% pot bet) turn and shove river where I'd have FE (3-barrel bluff). The result - effect of our action on Villain and his folding % - should be pretty similar AND we have more balance range as we may bet the same with our monster.

Any comment? Feel free to shot at me and my line !

Comments

  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,004 ✭✭✭✭
    Don't like the 4! pre. If he's a weak player, he is not likely 3! light, so you can flat pre w/ high IO. I think you're ranging him too wide. Yeah you're playing fit or fold to some degree, but the math is on your side, and I don't see much hidden fold equity in this spot in a family pot vs a likely narrow range.

    Flop is fine. Checking has merit as well cuz he's heavily weighted toward overcards & our equity when called is pretty poor.

    Turn is a bizarre turn of events & I can't say I'm a fan of your line, but I can't say it's completely foolish either. I'd have to o think more on it, but my instinct says it's a spew
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    looks like the old @Red is back - and up to his usual tricks.

    I think I remembered us talking about 99, 88 or maybe TT - and about hot/cold equities a while back... it still applies...

    When you put V's calling range (as you stated) in PokerCruncher - he's actually AHEAD of your 99 hand. Take a moment to let that sink in... you're 4-betting into a player who's calling range is STRONGER than your 4-betting range. So, you're basically putting money in "bad." You're counting on the dealer to bail you out. Me thinks that's -EV.

    Next, you're shoveling money into a pot from oop. (That's strike two!)

    Finally, you're shoving the turn representing what? Quads?
    Does quads shove there? Ever?
    A flush draw?
    What hands in a real poker player's range takes the line you did?
    Maybe AX with the :AS: .... maybe...

    I didn't look at the results - but from the rest of your post - it sounds like you won the hand. Showing you that V's very best fold is... whatever the spoiler was.

    But as you've figured out - it's an uber high variance play.
    More than 50% of the time, the board comes with cards that are over a 9.
    You're lucky the board paired two Ts because - as you know - it makes it less likely that V has any Ts in his hand. But as @persuadeo likes to ask, "who's board does this belong to?"
    It seems that if anyone should have a T in his hand, it's not you.

    The only redeeming thing about this hand is you found a way to win.
    You weren't scared to lose 18,000 Kc ... which is the equivalent of what? one Big Mac?

    So congrats on recognizing that in order to win the hand, you needed to be creative.
    You're lucky V was such a bad player. (and probably "scared money.") But don't expect that to always continue.
    It's good to see that you're analyzing the good, the bad and the ugly for more optimal lines.
    When you work the hand backwards, you realize that taking the gambles that you did will cause more dents in your bankroll than additions. Maybe you were showing off for your friend. Maybe you had a good read on your opponent. I dunno. But doing this on a consistent basis is probably not a good idea. Save these plays for when you have position. From oop, consider set-mining, or just folding.
    And if you decide to do this moving forward, at least have the :9S: so you've got more than 2 outs when called.

    GL
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @kagey : I agree with "When you work the hand backwards, you realize that taking the gambles that you did will cause more dents in your bankroll than additions." I already felt on the table that I made a mistake. A mistake I surely do NOT want to repeat :)
    kagey wrote: »
    You're lucky the board paired two Ts because - as you know - it makes it less likely that V has any Ts in his hand. But as @persuadeo likes to ask, "who's board does this belong to?"
    It seems that if anyone should have a T in his hand, it's not you.
    Now, off-table, I think this flop belongs to almost nobody.
    Villain could have few T, I should have even fewer (maybe only when I luckily hit strong with a bluff hand like QTs-like). T is slightly too low - would be different with J I think - , and it's paired (not a T high + FD board) which decreases the number of available combos.

    I think this board belongs to the players with overpairs (I should have more) and FD (he should have more combos than Hero, but Hero's combos should be more nutted).
    kagey wrote: »
    When you put V's calling range (as you stated) in PokerCruncher - he's actually AHEAD of your 99 hand. Take a moment to let that sink in... you're 4-betting into a player who's calling range is STRONGER than your 4-betting range. So, you're basically putting money in "bad." You're counting on the dealer to bail you out. Me thinks that's -EV.
    To be honest, it's the off-table range I give to Villain. I think I should loose up the range I gave him on table as an effect of my bad / too small 4-bet bet sizing.

    I think this whole hand turned into a huge horror because of this bad 4bet bet-sizing.
    What happens if I size much higher ? I think I can almost take all TX combos out of Villain's range. A preflop calling range like: QQ-99,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-AJs,KQs
    About KJs or QJs: not sure he call always, but sometimes
    Does he have TX ? I think he is way to weak to call with medium-like hands - mostly QTs, JTs and T9s. ATs? Maybe a sticky V would call, but he is on the weak side.

    Again such a range, I'm also behind, but how he hits the board is now really different. And my expectation to win with a bluff (not with a fancy and bad C-R line!) seems better too:
    Villain is now stuck with many overpairs, some overcards (depends on his floating tendencies) and few FD/flushes - and we should be able to make all but flushes fold (and maybe even a K high could fold depending on turn bet and on river - esp. if River is a low :SPADE: ).
    kagey wrote: »
    The only redeeming thing about this hand is you found a way to win.
    You weren't scared to lose 18,000 Kc ... which is the equivalent of what? one Big Mac?
    Haha!
    Yeah the currency is weak. Still, even 18'000 Kc is worth "only" 825 USD, it's almost a monthly salary here (~25'000Kc).
    Maybe I will make a post about my experience in playing in different countries and the impact of currency on table toughness.

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