A lost Hero (Novice)

HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
Hello to all,

I would very much appreciate some feedback regarding the below hand.

This is one of those spots I continuously find to be very problematic and where I feel “stuck”.

The sooner I can get my head around the best approach/response to these circumstances, the better. I will include some general thoughts and observations regarding V below the embedded link. I’m not entirely sure if any of you will believe it pertinent to the play at hand, but it did influence my final decision.

I am particularly interested in what the more experienced players might have considered using math, analytics and game theory throughout the course of this hand.

And finally, I am always of the belief that trying to define and interpret an experienced players overall thought process/their progressions during the play-by-play and when in the tank is of MOST value. So if you are happy to share, please do.

A note on Hero...

In the moment I was unable to think rationally and objectively. That is to say, I calculated four outs (Jx4) and then my poker-brain decided it was time to take (what it believed to be) a much needed leave of absence.

I had nothing further to indulge within the realms of logic or analysis.

I hope that I can pass this all down once my own knowledge is elevated to something worthy.

Many thanks in advance.

Anthony.

Live 2/3 – 10 Players – Hero bought in for $300 (100BB)

sharemypair.com/smpweb/smpviewdetails/feed_id/32531

Notes and observations on Villain:
1. Had been playing very tight for the last 45mins.
2. Had busted out once already in my presence and had bought back in for the minimum ($100). So he was looking to rebuild with a small stack and appeared to be a very patient, very nitty player.
3. Had mentioned playing the very same morning between 7am and 11am (we were currently playing at 8:30pm). So he seemed to be putting in a lot of time at the tables of late and was representing a “reg” table image.
4. After the initial bust, I witnessed the same V fold pocket KK’s to a river bet via an opponent who was representing trip 6’s. So V is capable of folding a big hand. He went into the tank for quite a while before this fold and relented in disgust.
5. I had forced the same player to fold once before and had taken down a $70 pot by using both my position and the strength of my hand. He had even gone so far as to proclaim “Playing you out of position keeps f*****g me.” So he was gunning for me in more than one way.
6. After I folded he casually mentioned holding pocket AA, though I am skeptical given that he flashed the entire table his pocket KK’s before folding just 6 rounds ago.

Huzzah! - and to The Stars.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    Few things:
    - Villain holding AA is highly improbable has we expect a 3-bet, especially OOP (don't think he could flat to be tricky)
    - You've to think why you C-bet AQ on KT7r. Why didn't you check for a free card? Is it a good line against him to check?
    - I'm on board to C-bet as bluff in general (to balance my value range), but then the fold is automatic to any C-R. Especially from a nitty player who is a priori only giving action with nutted combos.

    Nothing special else... where are you stuck?
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    I get the sense that V isn't looking to fold anymore tonight. Your bet does put V to a raise or fold decision on the flop, which is fine, but AQ may not be the best hand to use here. It's a little too strong to have to bet fold.
  • HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    @Red

    I agree, if he was holding QQ+/AK it’s more likely that he’d 3bet my PFR. Having said that, I do sometimes flat QQ to balance out my range. All in all, I was confident I’d be able to get him to fold once we he flatted, so I misread the situation. This is more than likely the reason I did not check-back to see the free card. Put it down to hubris.

    Thinking about how aggressive I was on that night, I do like the idea of checking here to balance out my C-bet value range and as you stated, I'd get to see a free card. So thank you for the suggestion. In retrospect I think that I did C-bet at too high a frequency throughout the evening. I will try to carry this principle into the session which I will be playing tonight.

    How often would you check-back on a board with this texture?

    Would you check-back 50% of the time? Less? More?

    Where else am I stuck?

    1/ What range is V shoving this hand with?

    2/ I didn’t consider pot odds or SPR during real-time.

    3/ My logic and analysis dissipated under the pressure of making a decision.

    So I didn’t consider combos, blockers, equity etc.…

    If you were me in this situation, what is your thought process?

    Scenario:
    The V shoves.
    The first thing you’d contemplate is ___________?
    The second thing?
    The third thing?

    How would your final decision come to fruition and what steps would you take in getting there?

    What short-cuts, if any, do you utilize in real-time when making the decision to call/fold here?

    This is what I am having trouble with a lot of the time. Some of it I put down to a lack of experience but I feel that if I can create a mental checklist, I will improve faster and I will be able to discern with much more clarity during these moments.

    Thanks so much

    Anthony

    Huzzah! - and to The Stars.
  • HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    edited September 2017
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    I get the sense that V isn't looking to fold anymore tonight. Your bet does put V to a raise or fold decision on the flop, which is fine, but AQ may not be the best hand to use here. It's a little too strong to have to bet fold.

    @bigburge10

    I hadn't considered the fact that V might have drawn a line in the sand re folding given that he had been bullied several times already. Dammit!

    So it is likely you would have called to see the turn card at the very least?

    "It's a little too strong to have to bet fold."

    Can you list some of the hands which you would have C-bet here given that you believe AQ wasn't ideal? What are your ideal hands?

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    So it is likely you would have called to see the turn card at the very least?
    Definitely not calling this bet. V is nearly all in, you have zero implied odds, and not a heap of equity.
    "It's a little too strong to have to bet fold."

    Can you list some of the hands which you would have C-bet here given that you believe AQ wasn't ideal? What are your ideal hands?

    Think of it this way---you're not loving that you have to fold AQ on this board. Which hands could you fold with a smile?
  • HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    So it is likely you would have called to see the turn card at the very least?
    Definitely not calling this bet. V is nearly all in, you have zero implied odds, and not a heap of equity.
    "It's a little too strong to have to bet fold."

    Can you list some of the hands which you would have C-bet here given that you believe AQ wasn't ideal? What are your ideal hands?

    Think of it this way---you're not loving that you have to fold AQ on this board. Which hands could you fold with a smile?

    Sorry, it was a misunderstanding on my part.

    When you said: "It's a little too strong to have to bet fold." I thought you were referring to my hole cards. You are correct; I hate folding in any situation and to smile whilst doing so, Bah!

    Now that both you and @Red have confirmed folding as the correct play, it makes me slightly less bitter. Ever so slightly.

    SplitSuit has a great article via The Poker Bank which highlights the differences between Implied Odds and Pot Odds which I will use as a springboard to further study. I'll also have to study Equity and Fold Equity based on your analysis.

    Really appreciate the response.

    Huzzah! - and to The Stars.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    HB - me thinks you're focusing on the wrong things

    first: I like your pfr
    BUT
    do you always make it 20 from the button? (or any position)
    is this your "standard" raise - or a raise to get V to fold pre?

    next:
    do you always c-bet?
    thinking back on that night - did you c-bet 100% of the time, or just occasionally.
    I ask this because if you always c-bet, then you gave V the perfect opportunity to check/raise you.

    back to the c-bet...
    do you always over bet the pot on the flop?
    you bet $50 into $43.
    seems excessive.
    Also seems like (once again) you're trying to get V to fold.

    next:
    was Doug Hull your V?
    (a dude with a funky brown hat and some Stu Unger glasses?)
    Cuz DH pulled one of these raises on me....
    (I don't know if it's in his book of clever tricks to get your opponent to fold - but I can tell you it didn't work with me.)
    and he was short stacked too...

    From a range vs. range standpoint -
    this is a "range advantage" board for you.
    unless you've showed up with a wide range of crap from the button -
    you should have more Ks in your range than V does.
    He should 3-bet with AA, AK and KK - so the best hand he should have here
    is KJs (maybe KQos)

    with pot being 43 and V having 185 behind...
    we're dealing with an SPR of 4-ish
    which means that we don't have much room to maneuver

    I don't know why you're eager to overbet the pot
    I wonder if you've even asked yourself as to "why" you're betting the flop.
    I think I would have checked it back.

    BTW - instead of asking others to list hands you bet and check here...
    why don't you do some of this work?
    you're on the button.
    you raise pre and get one caller.
    what hands from your button opening range would you c-bet here?
    what hands would you check back?
    what hands would you bet/fold?
    what hands would you bet/shove?

    See if you can line your ratio's up to Millers...
    see if you can get 70% of your range to continue on this flop
    with ⅔ of it being as a bluff or semi bluff - and ⅓ being for "value"
    Once you do this...
    you should better understand if this was one of those hands that you should had checked or bet...

    GL


    btw ... if you keep saying "huzza and to the stars" I probably won't be replying to you anymore. if you're serious about learning poker, you've found a unique and very helpful forum. but if you want to be taken seriously - you've got to present yourself like a real person and not a caricature
  • HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    @kagey

    Thanks so much for the response.

    It's such a valuable insight for me.

    Your reply is very loaded and it will take me a little while to address everything you've mentioned. I'll wrap my head around it all as fast as I can and respond in due course.

    Thanks again. I really appreciate it.
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
    I think you may be overthinking this one: seems like a good fold to me.

    Only other option IMO would be a reraise, but I don't have any sense of the villain here or how likely he or she might be to fold in that spot. Not sure what to make of the raise to $150, but against a random opponent, I think it means what it looks like it means: you're up against a stronger hand and should get out already. Unless you have a very good reason to suspect this is a loose-aggressive player who bluffs often, it's not a hard decision...

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    There's no question that folding is the best option given the actions taken. The problem is that hero ended up in this situation in the first place. It's like deciding to cut a hole in your boat in the middle of the ocean and once the boats sinks, you think it would be a good idea to swim. You're not wrong for swimming, but why do you have to swim?

  • HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    There's no question that folding is the best option given the actions taken. The problem is that hero ended up in this situation in the first place. It's like deciding to cut a hole in your boat in the middle of the ocean and once the boats sinks, you think it would be a good idea to swim. You're not wrong for swimming, but why do you have to swim?

    @bigburge10 You are absolutely correct. I shouldn't have gotten myself into this kind of a jam in the first place.

    @SplitSuit always makes a point of mentioning (a) It all begins Pre-Flop and (b) we should try to be forward thinking at all times, most especially PF.

    I'm hoping that with time and experience I will be able to avoid similar traps and compromising situations. But I have a feeling I am a long ways-off. A more complete player would be more than capable of taking all the variables into account and would have made an educated decision.

    Seeing the forest for the trees is my ultimate goal. I just have to put in the work off table and remain dedicated.

    Talking it out with you all has at the very least, reinforced what will be some good habits and self analysis both Pre and Post Flop, which is great.

    @MattP - Thanks for the reassurance. I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't over-folding or playing too Nitty.
  • HuckleBerryHuckleBerry Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    HB - me thinks you're focusing on the wrong things

    first: I like your pfr
    BUT
    do you always make it 20 from the button? (or any position)
    is this your "standard" raise - or a raise to get V to fold pre?

    next:
    do you always c-bet?
    thinking back on that night - did you c-bet 100% of the time, or just occasionally.
    I ask this because if you always c-bet, then you gave V the perfect opportunity to check/raise you.

    back to the c-bet...
    do you always over bet the pot on the flop?
    you bet $50 into $43.
    seems excessive.
    Also seems like (once again) you're trying to get V to fold.

    next:
    was Doug Hull your V?
    (a dude with a funky brown hat and some Stu Unger glasses?)
    Cuz DH pulled one of these raises on me....
    (I don't know if it's in his book of clever tricks to get your opponent to fold - but I can tell you it didn't work with me.)
    and he was short stacked too...

    From a range vs. range standpoint -
    this is a "range advantage" board for you.
    unless you've showed up with a wide range of crap from the button -
    you should have more Ks in your range than V does.
    He should 3-bet with AA, AK and KK - so the best hand he should have here
    is KJs (maybe KQos)

    with pot being 43 and V having 185 behind...
    we're dealing with an SPR of 4-ish
    which means that we don't have much room to maneuver

    I don't know why you're eager to overbet the pot
    I wonder if you've even asked yourself as to "why" you're betting the flop.
    I think I would have checked it back.

    BTW - instead of asking others to list hands you bet and check here...
    why don't you do some of this work?
    you're on the button.
    you raise pre and get one caller.
    what hands from your button opening range would you c-bet here?
    what hands would you check back?
    what hands would you bet/fold?
    what hands would you bet/shove?

    See if you can line your ratio's up to Millers...
    see if you can get 70% of your range to continue on this flop
    with ⅔ of it being as a bluff or semi bluff - and ⅓ being for "value"
    Once you do this...
    you should better understand if this was one of those hands that you should had checked or bet...

    GL


    btw ... if you keep saying "huzza and to the stars" I probably won't be replying to you anymore. if you're serious about learning poker, you've found a unique and very helpful forum. but if you want to be taken seriously - you've got to present yourself like a real person and not a caricature

    Taking things from the top…

    During my very early playing days, I did make the mistake of raising to the $20 figure much too often. Nowadays I will vary quite a bit based on situational awareness and table dynamics. So anywhere from $12 - $15 - $20 - $25 etc.… This particular night I believe that I varied the PFR well enough.

    With regards to your second point of analysis, I did mention this leak above but you might have missed it. It was in response to a suggestion by @Red :

    “Thinking about how aggressive I was on that night, I do like the idea of checking here to balance out my C-bet value range and as you stated, I'd get to see a free card. In retrospect I think that I did C-bet at too high a frequency throughout the evening.”

    However, you do have me dead-to-rights. I did give the V the perfect opportunity to check-raise me and I was too predictable. I am happy to say that throughout the live session I played yesterday, I was very mindful of this one leak and I didn’t make the same mistake. So now it’s just a matter of always having this perception front of mind.

    Re: back to the c-bet...

    Over-betting the pot on the flop isn't a strategy which I implement often. I will vary my bet sizing, much like my PFR. I was attempting to force a fold from V so that we would not go to the T or R and it backfired.

    next:

    Any more details on this night of play with Doug Hull? Any other anecdotes?

    Because I absolutely loved this one.

    Will get back to you regarding the rest of your critique/feedback.

    HB
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Over-betting the pot on the flop isn't a strategy which I implement often. I will vary my bet sizing, much like my PFR. I was attempting to force a fold from V so that we would not go to the T or R and it backfired.

    I don't think c-betting is necessarily the issue. The sizing is poor for your hand and the options/decision it presents to V.


  • SuessSuess Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    I agree with bigburge10's response to this paragraph but must add something else.
    Over-betting the pot on the flop isn't a strategy which I implement often. I will vary my bet sizing, much like my PFR. I was attempting to force a fold from V so that we would not go to the T or R and it backfired.

    Whether or not to vary bet/raise sizing is an oft discussed issue, but I think that until you fully understand how different sizes affect Vs' actions that you should stick to one size. Maybe you already do, but you labelled yourself a novice so I thought I'd mention it. It also won't allow you to subconsciously size larger with big hands and smaller with weaker holdings or vice versa if you tell yourself "I always open to $15 when folded to in LP, if this is a hand I am opening" or what have you.

    Onto the statement I bolded...

    Betting to force a fold from V is fine if you think he'll fold better hands than yours, like pocket 99- on this board (barring 77). This is a betting as a bluff.

    However, if your reason for wanting him to fold is primarily so that you won't need to make decisions on the turn or river then your logic for betting is flawed, and you will never grow as a poker player. In theory, these decisions should be the easiest since we have the most information on these streets, though I know they are commonly the most challenging precisely because of this fact--too much to process at the table in real time.

    Of course, it would be nice to always take the pot down on the flop when we don't have it, but being able to win pots with less than premium holdings on the turn and river is crucial to developing your postflop skills and overall poker acumen.

    If you're uncomfortable playing the later streets, or postflop in general, then I suggest doing the exercise of playing $.01/$.02 online and trying to win every hand. You'll find yourself in some very weird spots with terrible holdings after taking a weird line, which will make the more "traditional" decisions we face seem when playing normal ranges less daunting.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Suess wrote: »
    Betting to force a fold from V is fine if you think he'll fold better hands than yours, like pocket 99- on this board (barring 77). This is a betting as a bluff.

    It's also important to understand that our bluff doesn't have to succeed right away. In fact, it may be a more profitable bluff if it occurs over multiple streets. Say we know that V holds 99 on this board. We might not mind a flop call because V gets to put more money into the pot and it will be difficult for them to call multiple bets.

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    During my very early playing days, I did make the mistake of raising to the $20 figure much too often. Nowadays I will vary quite a bit based on situational awareness and table dynamics. So anywhere from $12 - $15 - $20 - $25 etc.… This particular night I believe that I varied the PFR well enough.

    Re: back to the c-bet...

    Over-betting the pot on the flop isn't a strategy which I implement often. I will vary my bet sizing, much like my PFR. I was attempting to force a fold from V so that we would not go to the T or R and it backfired.

    I don't think there's anything "wrong" with betting big pre - nor overbetting the flop... IF you have a good reason for it. Some folks use bigger sizes to force their opponents to make bigger errors. That's a good strategy... but if you're using a bigger size to force your opponent to fold, that's not so good.

    Think about this: say you raise pre with KK or TT - and the flop comes KT7rb - wouldn't you be betting small to entice your V to call? Wouldn't you want action?

    I think it's good for players to have a pocketful of bet sizes to fit the situation they're in - but in this hand your preflop and flop bet sizings look like you don't want action. It's like you have JJ and you just want the hand to be over. Players sometime pick up on that and then play back at you because your bets look "fearful" instead of "strong." Smaller bet sizings sometime look super strong like your suckering your opponent into calling when he's got no shot. But sometimes, betting larger against a calling station is better because you get more value for your hand. As you can see, it all depends.

    What's KEY here is to have a reason for your sizing and a purpose for your betting.
    And it shouldn't be to force opponent to fold when you're so shallow.
    Any more details on this night of play with Doug Hull? Any other anecdotes?
    Doug's got a some interesting videos with some dude named Randall where they ran over the table by monkey betting/raising.
    I had seen these videos before he made a trip to my poker room, so I was prepared for this kind of action if we were to get into any pots together.
    As it happened, we did.

    I opened AQs in MP to 20 (in a ⅓ game) and Doug flatted me on the button. Knowing how he sees and teaches the game - I made assumptions that his flatting range was weakish.

    Flop came K high... like K 8 4rb - and I made my standard continuation bet: 30.
    Doug was playing an honorable short stack that night and had less than 200 behind. He raised me to 90.
    My first instinct was to fold - but then I considered what his holdings.
    This flop belonged to me! I have range advantage. That K should hit my range much harder than his. I'm the one that should have AK, KK and AA here. At best, he's got a set of 8s or something like KTs. So I took a gamble... I raised to 200 which would put Doug all in.
    He insta-mucked.

    Now I wouldn't make this kind of play on every opponent. Doug was a thinking player - and his advance move would probably have worked on your average low limit player. Doug's raise presented leverage - making it look like he's calling off any shove. My flop 3-bet represented the strong types of hands I should be raising and betting.

    Funny thing, had Doug simply smooth called and bet into my (most likely) turn check - I would have folded AQs if I didn't improve. But since his play came too early (imo) and I knew Doug was capable of making such a play - plus I knew who Doug was while he didn't know me from Adam (or Adam Wheeler) - I thought there would be a good chance my "resteal" would work. But as you can see - all these bets have a purpose and the bet sizings show subtle strength without being too "desperate."

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