Enough implied equity to make the call?

Nicco HNicco H Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
Hi Red Chip friends,

This is my first time sharing a hand on here, I'm very interested and grateful to hear what you all think of my thought process and decision making. Thanks in advance for any feedback you can give me!

This hand is from a $10 6-max table on Global Poker. There are only 4 players, and I’m in the big blind with :4s:5s . UTG folds, Villain min-raises to $0.2 from the button, the small blind folds, and I call. I have Villain slightly covered as I have around $10.36 and he has around $9.56.

The flop comes :3d:7c:Ks

I check and Villain raises $0.22 cents into a $0.45 pot. I call hoping to pick up some straight or flush outs on the turn. As it happens, I pick up both. The turn is the :2S: , and the Villain makes a pot-sized bet of 89 cents. I quickly try to do some math:

Pot odds are 2:1, or 33%

I have 9 flush outs and 4 straight outs (9 spades and 4 sixes), for a total of 13 outs.* By the 4 and 2 rule I have a 26% chance of making my hand on the river.

*I realize now that it’s actually only 12 outs, since one of the sixes is the six of spades and I was double counting it. 24% vs 26% doesn’t make a huge difference in this hand though, just something to be aware of.

So I conclude that it’s a bad call to make, since I need to win this hand 33% of the time or better, and I’m only winning 26% of the time. But then I think, wait, what about implied odds? If I do hit one of my outs on the river, what are the chances my opponent bets into me a third time? And what are the chances of him calling a re-raise at that point? Probably pretty high. I could be winning a pot much bigger than the current size, maybe I don’t actually need to win this 33% of the time. Do I need to win it less than 26% of the time? I don’t know, and here I ran out of time and just made the call.

The river was the :6h , completing my straight. Villain bet $1.33 into the $2.67 pot, I raised to $3.2, and he called and mucked his losing hand.

So, here’s the question: Do my implied odds in this situation make my call profitable, or did I make a bad call and just get lucky? Thanks again for any feedback!

-Nicco

Comments

  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    Maybe. Maybe. Yes.

    What IO do you have if he checks back the river?

    How much do you need on the river to make up for the turn call? What about the flop call?
  • Nicco HNicco H Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    So I think it's unlikely that he checks the river given how he's played the hand and given that the 6 really doesn't look like a card that helps me. If he does I'm not sure where I stand.

    The flop call cost me $0.02 and the turn call cost me $0.89, I'm not sure what that means for how much I need to make up on the river to make it worthwhile. $1.19? More?
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    Offsuits 6s are good cards and you have higher io with them. What about spades?
  • Nicco HNicco H Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    with spades not so high... spades are much more likely than sixes so I suppose my io should be based more on what he does if a spade comes, in that case I think he does have a higher chance of checking the river. All in all do you think it's a good call or not?
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    It doesn't matter what I think, right?
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    n9pdjvj9rmzr.png

    ...that you could raise
  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    Bb raising into a psb Ott scares me, as in such a big bet looks like a good hand and we might get jammed on.
  • Nicco HNicco H Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    eugeniusjr wrote: »
    It doesn't matter what I think, right?

    if I didn't want to know what people thought then I wouldn't ask a question in the forums lol
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    eugeniusjr wrote: »
    Bb raising into a psb Ott scares me, as in such a big bet looks like a good hand and we might get jammed on.

    Ah, I did overlook that important fact. But, the meme wouldn't be as cool if it said Fold.

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Nicco H wrote: »
    with spades not so high... spades are much more likely than sixes so I suppose my io should be based more on what he does if a spade comes, in that case I think he does have a higher chance of checking the river. All in all do you think it's a good call or not?

    If you call the pot will be $2.67. To make this call $0 EV, you need to win an additional $0.72 on the river, assuming all of your outs are winners. So, winning an extra $.072 seems reasonable given the pot size. Now, are you going to win that on every spade? No. Your opponent will check back some of them, and fold on some when you lead, and maybe the As is a scare card. Will you win that much on a 6? Probably, given that V bets, and if they have a hand, you'll likely get much more. What about the A? Who knows? Maybe V shuts down there as well. Also, the PSB by V on the turn may help you out in the implied odds department--perhaps they have a strong hand.



  • Nicco HNicco H Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    thanks for the thoughts both of you!
  • Nicco HNicco H Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    Nicco H wrote: »
    with spades not so high... spades are much more likely than sixes so I suppose my io should be based more on what he does if a spade comes, in that case I think he does have a higher chance of checking the river. All in all do you think it's a good call or not?

    If you call the pot will be $2.67. To make this call $0 EV, you need to win an additional $0.72 on the river, assuming all of your outs are winners. So, winning an extra $.072 seems reasonable given the pot size. Now, are you going to win that on every spade? No. Your opponent will check back some of them, and fold on some when you lead, and maybe the As is a scare card. Will you win that much on a 6? Probably, given that V bets, and if they have a hand, you'll likely get much more. What about the A? Who knows? Maybe V shuts down there as well. Also, the PSB by V on the turn may help you out in the implied odds department--perhaps they have a strong hand.



    This was very helpful

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