1/3 -- TT w/ 2-Pair OTR

MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
Haven't posted a hand in awhile. Literally first hand @ table, no history. V is a grumpy looking MAAG. $400 deep. Ten-handed.

I think it played out pretty standard til the turn, and river it's between lead/folding or x/guessing, as he has a decent amount of 9x in my calculation. Thanks for input.

Hero (UTG):

Hero raises $15, fold x 6, V (BTN) calls, SB calls, BB folds

Flop: :9s :2d. :2c

SB x, H bets $25, V calls $25, fold

Turn: :4h

H bets $45, V raises $90, H calls

River: :8h

Hero ???
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Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 836 ✭✭✭
    edited September 23
    I'd rather go for a check/call line (call any decent bet - up to ~pot bet) than to lead the river. I want to use my SDV and realize my equity and get info about his hands (important for the session).

    What I think a priori is a min raise is a (scared?) 9X who doesn't want to be pushed out by (Hero holding) broadways. A raise both for value and protection (against broadways) - and to know if you really do have an overpair, as you could 3-bet turn with, allowing 9X to make an exploitative fold. And if you just call, he can check river and realize his 9X holding (as players calling such turn raise usually don't donk river).

    Now do you continue?
    :4H: doesn't help any 9X holding, and if he had 2X, then he already beats you anyway. Maybe he has 44, but lucky him. And he should not have overpairs very often (at least not KK+). So calling turn and river seems ok against many 9X or underpairs (55-88).
    But I don't want to fire river myself, which makes him fold his worst hand and continue with the best (=a range which beats us often) but check/call, where his range will be weaker with a tons of TP (9X). I'm happy to call and realize my SDV.
    Also if we bet river and he raises again, then we have to fold (against sets and 98) or make an expensive bluff catching in a bad situation.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    Yeah, can't fix the OP, but I had TT -- I hope people pay enough attention to the title.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,838 ✭✭✭✭
    River (275) 92248
    Hero (270) ?

    I think calling turn is fine. Sucks without history, but i would assume most people won't raise a boat on the turn or quads. 22, 99, or 44 since they are IP. If hes grumpy maybe hes more aggressive?

    I would start asking questions on the river and try and get him to talk. See how comfortable he is. He could easily have a hand like A9s here as well as A2s. Maybe a slow played over pair himself jj or qq.

    Lot of it to do with live reads. Definitely a tough spot. In theory low stake players are not bluffing here often enough on the river, so vs a decent bet 150+ i think i would make a snug fold. Most people are not bananas with 9x.

  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    River (275) 92248
    Hero (270) ?

    I think calling turn is fine. Sucks without history, but i would assume most people won't raise a boat on the turn or quads. 22, 99, or 44 since they are IP. If hes grumpy maybe hes more aggressive?

    I would start asking questions on the river and try and get him to talk. See how comfortable he is. He could easily have a hand like A9s here as well as A2s. Maybe a slow played over pair himself jj or qq.

    Lot of it to do with live reads. Definitely a tough spot. In theory low stake players are not bluffing here often enough on the river, so vs a decent bet 150+ i think i would make a snug fold. Most people are not bananas with 9x.

    Yeah we have about a PSB behind, which really handcuffs us. If we were deeper I'm more inclined to just bet out 1/3 pot or so, as 9x should almost never shove on me. X/guessing seemed like the best option in the moment, and yeah probably x/f to anything over half pot, & calling less.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,780 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    edited September 23
    persuadeo wrote: »
    why would a guy min raise a nine?

    Freeze-play is a thing -- especially when the high card on board is still the 9. Plus my bet-sizing isn't full-bore here, perhaps emboldening him a bit.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,780 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23
    makes no sense to reopen the betting with a nine, but if he is playing for free street on the river, I guess I see it. Seems unlikely. The problem is players who have no clue what they are doing often put money into the pot for no reason, and this hand is high up in your range, I suppose.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 2,838 ✭✭✭✭
    Just seen a hand
    Flop 855
    Four ways
    Goes check x3
    Bet 10
    Fold x2
    Call
    Turn ($32) 8559
    Check x2
    River (32) 85595
    Check
    Bet 25
    Raise to 95
    Call 70

    The CO who bet had 96o
    BB who xr to 95 had 82o.

    Maybe i have no idea what im talking about lol. Trying to bluff quads. I think he was just really happy "I GOT A BOAT!"
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    makes no sense to reopen the betting with a nine, but if he is playing for free street on the river, I guess I see it. Seems unlikely. The problem is players who have no clue what they are doing often put money into the pot for no reason, and this hand is high up in your range, I suppose.

    Sure, we have to discount 9x for sure because it is an unusual line, but his 2x range is so narrow that even if I discount the 9x by alot, I would still assign it a heavier weight. Any thoughts on the river considering we're there & have a decision?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,780 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would not put another chip in the pot vs such a player.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,780 ✭✭✭✭✭
    (I'm not expecting deuces, but overpairs, btw.)
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    (I'm not expecting deuces, but overpairs, btw.)

    We could see JJ here, but I think we're obligated to heavily discount QQ+.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 2,780 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Maybe a little. The range of hands that plays like this should be very narrow and preflop slowplays are a part of it.
  • MonadMonad Red Chipper Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭
    Hero checks. Villain checks. Villain tables Q9

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