Need some validation or thoughts

the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
Just left the room after feeling myself get tilted after this hand but want to reflect while it's fresh

1/3 NL game

Get :As:Ah in SB Effective stacks are $260

EP raises to 15 PF, MP calls

I 3 bet to 60

EP and MP call

Flop: :7d:8h:9s

I shove for $201

EP folds

MP tanks , tanks, and calls

Turn: :Kd

River: :Ts

He turns over :6h:6d for straight

My questions in retrospect:

- Was the shove correct on the flop or should I have bet smaller to get a fold but then get them to fold the turn?

- Is there any spot this guy should be folding? Was his call bad or good?

I feel I know most of the answers, just a little tilted and know I can vent and get good feedback here - thanks.
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Comments

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Good by you, real thin by him. I'm sure the math guys may critique here: $180 pot, you shove $201, he's calling $201 to win $381, with an expect equity of 33% against your overpairs. He's $-9. Expand it to include AKs, and he's making $32. So it's a marginally acceptable play by him at best, good by you.
  • the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
    Thanks - again like I said, I'm on the same thought - just reeling from the beat - and know this is where we can rely on each other lol :)
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Would this hand have played out any differently had you made a smaller bet on the flop? Which hands would fold to the smaller flop bet? Which hands would fold to the remaining turn bet?
  • the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
    My thought process in hindsight is that maybe I gave the impression of missing with AK or similar and was trying to buy it - my true thought process was to get the hand right there or heads up (since there were 2 callers to my 3 bet) - I got what I wanted and in all reality, I *do* want him making that call of my all in each time as I'm roughly 86% favorite there.

    In second guessing myself, If I bet $100 on the flop, i sitll get it heads up probably - but when the K hits I can shove there easier and maybe have better shot of getting the fold? Thats where I'm a little iffy
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    This is what I tell myself in these spots: When your AA beats 66, you take the whole pot, but you really should only get 80% of it (62% of it on this flop). When your AA loses, you're paying back the money you owe from those other wins. In the long run it evens out. What doesn't even out is bad play. And you didn't make the bad play, he did.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Given the short stacks, villain's only mistake may be calling preflop. Calling this flop bet isn't really a mistake. The pot is offering him acceptable odds to at least break even.
  • the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
    I agree there, the PF call was pretty weak imho - it's one I would not have made from MP.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    the_tpup wrote: »
    In second guessing myself, If I bet $100 on the flop, i sitll get it heads up probably - but when the K hits I can shove there easier and maybe have better shot of getting the fold? Thats where I'm a little iffy
    I don't think your fold equity will increase as this hand plays out. Given your stack size, a smaller flop bet will result in a very small turn bet relative to the pot size. Whatever hands call the flop are very unlikely to fold on the turn--even to the scary K. Also, what are you going to do when a J, T, 6, or 5 rolls off?

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    two things:
    1st: when the money goes in and the cards are turned over - that's really how you should evaluate your actions/decisions... not with the results.
    so in this context, you won the hand.

    2nd: This board is HORRIBLE for your 3-betting range.
    (unless you're @Red !)
    Why are you shoving?
    This board favors anyone calling your 3-bet in position.
    I'd consider creating ranges for your opponents who might call a pfr and a 3-bet and then put that against this very, very coordinated board.
    In most cases, you're either way ahead or way behind - long-term, me thinks shoving here is -EV.
  • the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
    kagey - you are exactly right on point 1

    To explain point 2 - EP guys is someone who I have played with and my thought out range for what i'd think he'd call a 3 bet PF with made me feel I was really good here.
    MP however, I had not played with, I truly felt I was ahead here and could snap it up right then.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    The hard part with this hand is that it's a 1 SPR pot and a shit board for hero. Both villains range's contain all of the nutted hands like straights and sets. So, do we just check fold AA here?
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    Well said @taglius. I agree, this isn't a difficult spot given the SPR. However, I was trying to address this comment.
    kagey wrote: »
    In most cases, you're either way ahead or way behind - long-term, me thinks shoving here is -EV.
    Do we get the money in better when we check/shove or check/call given that V's range may be wider? If jamming is -EV, what about betting or checking? Does hero really have any options here? I don't see check folding as an option.

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    As @kagey says: it's not our flop. And as we 3bet from SB, we don't have a wild 3bet range (would be different on BB as SB already fold or call with a capped range)
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    So, do we just check fold AA here?
    On the flop ? Yes, except if Villain is wild. Otherwise you're called only by better hands (sets, 2P, straight) or hands with great equity against you.

    I think most of 2P and many sets are going to bet here. But draw less often (depends on Villain's profile). So here again, we may do an ugly call.

    On the turn I'd not fold, planning my action in a way that TP go along.
  • porterporter Red Chipper Posts: 315 ✭✭✭
    It's true that this isn't our flop. But check-folding AA here would be an abomination. Just terrible. As inexcusable as folding 76dd on 9d7c4d.
  • the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
    Check folding was never an option for me here , not with this flop and what I knew about the table
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    But Jungle folds kings to Berkey all the time ^_______^ plzzz
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    porter wrote: »
    It's true that this isn't our flop. But check-folding AA here would be an abomination. Just terrible. As inexcusable as folding 76dd on 9d7c4d.
    there was no mention of check/folding here by me...
    we're at the top of our range.

    but if you consider the ranges that we're up against - checking the flop here isn't horrible. (and something to consider for future application when oop)
    we should be up against pocket pairs, big aces (although there should be fewer of them) and suited broadways.

    the board is coordinated and rainbow.
    if we shove on this type of board every single time (whether it's a raised pot or 3-bet pot) we're probably only getting called by hands with monster equity.

    consider the hand that called us - dude's got 10 outs... 40%-ish hand equity - and 33% pot odds to call. he didn't make a mistake by calling!

    currently - we've got an SPR of 1
    now let's consider checking (with the intention of calling any shove or shoving any turn) do we think 66 is shoving if we check to?
    I doubt it.

    wouldn't a more optimal line be a flop check - against our opponents' complete ranges?

    at worse, we allow our opponent to hit his 2 outer and stack us... (which he's probably calling a shove anyway)
    at best, we get shoved on by a worse hand or we allow our opponent to hit one of his broadway cards, and stack off with crappy equity.

    I guess I'm thinking that shoving pot isn't really denying any equity...
    since this isn't a tourney - I don't see the urgency to shove flop

    me thinks that using the excuse that it's an SPR of 1 so we should insta-shove so we don't have to think about anything is pretty bad advice. we've always got a choice. we've always got decisions to consider. shoving and "damn the torpedeos" is pretty short-sighted way to play imo.
  • the_tpupthe_tpup Red Chipper Posts: 75 ✭✭
    i've absolutely loved the thoughts and perspectives on this thread - ty all - i was looking for a pick me up and got some free lessons lol :)
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    kagey wrote: »
    I guess I'm thinking that shoving pot isn't really denying any equity...
    since this isn't a tourney - I don't see the urgency to shove flop
    Do you think checking opens yourself up to folding incorrectly later in the hand? Maybe you kind of deny yourself some equity?

  • Justin MJustin M Red Chipper Posts: 105 ✭✭
    That's definitely a gross flop, that will really hit a lot of loose villains. I think shoving there is a bit of a mistake. I think this spot you can bet a bit smaller to protect your stack, and still accomplish the same thing.

    Generally most loose passive players aren't going to C/R with something like pair+OESD, they're going to call you down. I feel like on these kind of textures shipping it is more often than not, only going to be getting called by better.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    I disagree with Kagey, I think shoving here is absolutely superior play than checking.

    First if you check and the flop gets checked through, on the turn, what do you do if a 5, 6, T, or J rolls off, do you shove then? If you shove, now absolutely no worse hands are gonna call you, so shoving would be a mistake. If you check again, you may easily get bluffed off the best hand, or you have allowed draws even gut shots to get there for free and actually beat you. Keep in mind that there are 16 cards total that can come on the turn that you would make betting, calling or folding mistakes on, that's 35% chance!

    If you check and V bets, you are not folding here, because V could be betting with all the over pairs you beat, and all the straight draws you beat. If V bets and you flat, you run in to the same turn problem as previously stated, so you should shove when it comes back to you given the SPR. Unless you have history against the V, generally players at lower limits are passive so you can't rely on them to bluff if you check, especially in a 3 bet pot.

    If you shove the flop, yes there are better hands that will call you, but there are way more combos of worse hands that will also call you. If your opponent can have 77-99 (3 combos each, 9 combos total), they can also have TT-KK (6 combos each, 24 combos total). If they can have 78, 89, 79, they can also have 67, 9T, 68, J9 (side note here, a lot of people seem to think AA is drawing almost dead against 2P, actually over pair has ~30% equality against 2P). Hand that has "monster equity" against you should not discourage you from shoving, because if they have 40% against you, then you have 60% against them, you have 20% edge here, so for every extra dollar you put in the pot you are generating 20c profit, that is huge. Shoving here eliminates the possibility of you making mistakes on future streets, which is also huge in a game of imperfect information.

    Lastly let's talk about the call from V. It is NOT a good call, saying his hand has 40% against AA is being result orientated, which we want to avoid during hand analysis. From the V's POV, he doesn't know we have AA, depending on our image, we could have taken this preflop and flop line with TT-AA. Against that range he has 30% equity, making the call a losing call.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    Lastly let's talk about the call from V. It is NOT a good call, saying his hand has 40% against AA is being result orientated, which we want to avoid during hand analysis. From the V's POV, he doesn't know we have AA, depending on our image, we could have taken this preflop and flop line with TT-AA. Against that range he has 30% equity, making the call a losing call.
    It depends on hero's 3 bet range and their flop jamming range. But, if hero is only 3 betting and then jamming TT+, then this call is still very close--if hero has just tosses AKs into this range, then the call becomes profitable. Therefore, I don't think villain is making a bad call on the flop.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2017
    Justin M wrote: »
    That's definitely a gross flop, that will really hit a lot of loose villains. I think shoving there is a bit of a mistake. I think this spot you can bet a bit smaller to protect your stack, and still accomplish the same thing.
    Bet-folding an overpair in a 1 SPR pot is awful. How much are you going to bet? What hands are going to fold to this bet? Villain has plenty of hands that can comfortably call a $200 bet--what do you think they are going to do when you bet $50?

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    Lastly let's talk about the call from V. It is NOT a good call, saying his hand has 40% against AA is being result orientated, which we want to avoid during hand analysis. From the V's POV, he doesn't know we have AA, depending on our image, we could have taken this preflop and flop line with TT-AA. Against that range he has 30% equity, making the call a losing call.

    if you're V with 66 and pfr shoves flop for pot - pot odds are 2:1. you need 33% or better odds to call.
    if you range V on TT+, AKs, AQs and even include A7s, A8s & A9s
    you're hand has 40% equity
    If you take out everything except JJ+, your hand still has 34% equity

    calling is not a mistake

    now you can augment the ranges to deny V more outs by saying that we'd be 3-betting the JTs, TT or even 55... but then you're just making stuff up to make your point.

    in this hand, Hero should really have AQs+ and QQ+ in his 3-betting value range.
    And that's probably the range V considered - to which he's got 49% equity.

    As was state earlier - shoving looks more bluffy than strong. It looks like a line AK or AQ would take. But even if you put Hero squarely on AA - V still has 38% equity.

    math says the V's call here is 100% correct.

    Hero's not making a mistake by shoving.
    V is not making a mistake by calling.

    Which brings me to my second point. Maybe in this hand we're handcuffed.
    We're damned if we do and damned if we don't.
    But make no mistake about it - we DO have options.

    Depending on Vs' tendencies, I don't see how a delayed c-bet would not be "better."
    In a 3-bet pot - players typically play more "honestly" - esp. multiway
    But even if they're unknown - well, then we're inducing a bluff and we're calling.

    I think a T is really the only bad card for us.
    Everything else should be a bet on the turn.
    If you can't see how delaying our shove to the turn can be more +EV and gain us more profit in the long-run, then imo you're not looking at this hand thru the right lens.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    I think a T is really the only bad card for us.
    Everything else should be a bet on the turn.
    If you can't see how delaying our shove to the turn can be more +EV and gain us more profit in the long-run, then imo you're not looking at this hand thru the right lens.

    Again I disagree with this, a "bad card" is not the card that can come and make V's hand, more often is a card that can come that will kill your action.

    AA is a value hand, so the purpose of our bet is to get our opponent to call, so we can showdown the best hand and win the pot. Our goal for betting our value hand is never to push opponent out of the pot. I think too many players get caught up with the idea of "denying equity", but the truth is, if you deny your opponent's 30% equity, you are also denying yourself 70% equity on current and future bets. So unless the pot is ridiculously large compared to the bet, you are often denying yourself more EV if opponent folds.

    With that in mind, let's ask ourselves, what worse hands that are gonna call us if we shove?

    Shove on the flop: overpairs TT-KK, straight draws (even though I don't think it's correct to call here with OESD, but I understand a lot of player will make the call here), and maybe top pair.

    Shove on the turn: if a brick comes, straight draws are no longer calling because they will be getting terrible odds. If a A or K comes like it did in this hand, top pairs, TT-QQ will have a hard time calling. If any of the 5, 6, T, J comes, all the single pair hands will have a hard time calling. I know it doesn't make sense for us to have a straight, but we are playing low limit with the general population here, when is the last time you see someone calling a over pot size shove with one pair on a 4 to a straight board?

    So what I'm trying to say is, you will lose a large portion of your customers on almost any turn card, so shoving the flop when you have the most customers are definitely superior.

  • Justin MJustin M Red Chipper Posts: 105 ✭✭
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    Justin M wrote: »
    That's definitely a gross flop, that will really hit a lot of loose villains. I think shoving there is a bit of a mistake. I think this spot you can bet a bit smaller to protect your stack, and still accomplish the same thing.
    Bet-folding an overpair in a 1 SPR pot is awful. How much are you going to bet? What hands are going to fold to this bet? Villain has plenty of hands that can comfortably call a $200 bet--what do you think they are going to do when you bet $50?

    Now I'm not saying it wouldn't be a really nasty spot... However there's a big difference between losing 50bb , and a 100bb stack.

    The general live population thinks of absolute bet sizes, more so than anything else. Seriously dude called effectively 20+% of his stack with 66. I think we can lead here something like 60-100, and still get folds with hands that totally missed (and are going to fold anyway), and still get some value from hands that we CAN actually beat at showdown (smaller overpairs, pairs+draws,etc). When someone wakes up we can give them credit for having a hand we're behind. Sometimes you're just honestly never good, despite what pot odds/spr you're getting (since most 1/3 players aren't putting in big bluffs). There are certain textures that I think we need to pump the brakes a bit, and this is 100% one of them.

    I think shoving here makes it pretty tough for hands like JJ, and probably QQ to call. 66 and 1010 can potentially call a flop bet, but may fold to a turn ship when they don't improve.

    There's more combos of flopped straights, than sets and 2p hands (32, v 29). Against a made straight we basically need a miracle runout (A, then board pair).
  • Justin MJustin M Red Chipper Posts: 105 ✭✭
    Edit: This section
    There's more combos of hands that beat us, than hands we beat (made straights-32, sets 18, 2p-27). Pair+OESD have 36 (9/10,8/10,7/6), and 10s-Ks we have 36. Against a made straight we basically need a miracle runout .

    So it's definitely close, but like I said above I think it's going to be tough for some of those hands we're ahead of to call a flop ship. I don't have flopzilla yet but probably going to get it here soon.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Justin M wrote: »
    There's more combos of hands that beat us, than hands we beat (made straights-32, sets 18, 2p-27). Pair+OESD have 36 (9/10,8/10,7/6), and 10s-Ks we have 36. Against a made straight we basically need a miracle runout .
    I think this combinatorics is a bit off:
    set: 7s, 8s, 9s - 3 combos of each = 9
    made straights: JTs = 4 combs
    (remember this is a 3-bet pot... if we want to be adventurous, we can toss in a 2 combos of 56s... but it's rare to see this hand in a 3-bet that's not the 3-bettor
    Pair + OESD.... really? We expect to see T9, 8T and 76 in a 3-bet pot?
    And if those exist, well - then we probably have to include 78s & 89s = 4 combos
    Again - optimistic and rare
    Ts - Ks: I count 6 combos of eack X 4 = 24


    only hands that have the "correct" odds to call are 66 & TT - if they put Hero on an overpair

    I disagree that there are more combos that beat us than we beat (see math above)
    but when we shove, we're most likely losing value from worse hands

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