2/5 Ok spot for a third barrel?

Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
edited April 2015 in Live Poker Hands
2/5 6 handed casino game. Both Hero and Villian have around $500-$550 stacks.

Villain started off being pretty active. He three-bet pre-flop at least three times in the first 4/5 orbits. He wasn't overly crazy, just aggressive. From my perspective Villain seemed competent was probably a better caliber player. I normally play 1/2 but, as advised somewhere on the forum, was taking a shot at a higher level. I wasn't uncomfortable but aware of there being better players. Most at the table were not, in my opinion.

Note on the open. The SB was a pretty poor player who won a couple big hands(not against me). He limped/called or called raises a lot but was quick to fold to c-bets. I had c-bet him with air 3 times. He was very much a fit or fold player and was my target.

Folds to Hero
Hero on the Button with :As:2s bets $20
Villain in the BB calls

FLOP: :Kc:2c:3d pot $42

Villain: Check/Call
Hero: $30

TURN: :Kc:2c:3d:Td pot $102

Villain: Check/Call
Hero: $60

RIVER: :Kc:2c:3d:Td:Kd pot $222

Villain: Checks
Hero:???

I was a bit surprised by Villain's lack of aggression but I just have a pair of :2? .

1) Do I check back?
2) Do I fire a third bullet?

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm curious about what others think, but I do not think this is a good card to barrel if Villain is thinking about the hand at all. You have represented the K, and now it is has paired. It is a bad card for you, as now your third barrel will be extremely polarized. He has to note that there are not many kings left for you to have, and further he has to note that your button range is going to be wider than your range in other spots.

    This is a value spot. You say he was fit or fold; but now he has arrived at the river. Is this the guy to bluff?

    Further, you have showdown value against all the naked draws that called and missed. If he has a K, he is never folding; he likely let go of a three and many other pairs on the turn. So what can he have that should fold? If he backed into a 10, he is never folding.

    Your problem here is that he might just be a weak player, as you have suggested, and give up to the river bullet based on cost alone, but I don't think it is a sound play in the long run.

    It is possibly an overbet spot, however.
  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 356 ✭✭
    I'm trying to use Flopzilla on this (I'm just starting to use it).

    If you assume villain has 55+, 65s+, J9s+, KTs, A2s+, KQo, and ATo+ your hand looks to be have about 34% if he blindly called to the river. Of course, he doesn't know you are that weak. If you don't bet you are most likely losing. I (not that it is correct) would probably fire one more bullet of about $90 hoping that he folds a middle pair or missed club flush or straight draw. However, this is one of the ways I typically spew chips, so take with a grain of salt. As far as he is concerned, if you had QQ you were still ahead of his range 73% of the time by the river.

    I'm still trying to figure out using the filters on flopzilla, they were giving me wonky results the way I tried them.
  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 356 ✭✭
    Just saw persaudeo's post. As usual, he makes very smart points. Forget what I said, and listen to him :)
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    Ok i'm glad you ask about these spots. First thing first, i just want to say try to avoid triple barrelling against unknown & fishy players.

    Unknown: Lack of information & vice versa they might only feel like continuing something close to nuts since they lack information on you. (Occasionally the case here)
    Fish: These players have a wide "value" range assumption & are willing to make a wider "Bluffcatch" call more than less.

    So my rule of thumb here is before i consider triple barrelling i want to make sure the candidate is at least a decent enough player who understand relative hand strength and not absolute hand strength, at least!....

    Now assuming the BB is a player capable of laying down a few good combos here and there this is my breakdown of the hand:

    On the assumption like you describe with villian being loose/fit or fold this is the calling range i put him on:

    TT-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A2o, K5s+, K9o+, Q7s+, Q8o+, J8s+, J7o+, T8s+, T6o+, 97s+, 96o+, 86s+, 86o+, 75s+, 75o+, 64s+, 65o, 54s

    Maybe he can be a bit looser, who knows i just need a good enough starting ground.

    Now i have to show you my thought process throughout the entire hand along with the analysis to see if a river bet really makes sense here, so bare with me.

    [Flop]

    When i bet, i dont expect no pairs & no draws to fold but his air is going to fold here.

    So villian continues with: TT-22, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, A5s-A2s, A5o-A2o, K5s+, K9o+, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 64s+, 65o, 54s


    [Turn]

    This card is an okay card against anybody who may be floating and weaker players such as this player here.
    I expect any monsters to make a raise now since this board can turn out ugly on the river if the wrong card comes. I always assume by default players are not folding their draws on the turn except gutshots.

    So there is alot of merit in betting here.

    This is what i expect to call:

    AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ad5d, Ac4c, Ad4d, Ac3c, Ad3d, Ac2c, Ad2d, KJs+, K9s-K5s, KJo+, K9o, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6c4c, 6d4d, 54s

    This is what i expect to raise:

    TT, 33-22, KTs, KTo

    [River]

    Now here is what i think villian will have majority of the time here by this river:

    AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ad5d, Ac4c, Ad4d, Ac3c, Ad3d, Ac2c, Ad2d, KJs+, K9s-K5s, KJo+, K9o, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6c4c, 6d4d, 54s

    Here is my assumption:

    Tx & Kx are not folding.
    Backdoor diamond flush are not folding.
    Draws lay down right here.

    Here is what he calls with:

    AcTc, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs+, K9s-K5s, KJo+, K9o, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, Tc8c, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d

    Here is what he folds with:

    AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QcJc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Jc9c, Jc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 5h4h, 5c4c, 5s4s


    Now there are very few combos that you can fold that are better than you but majority are combos that you beat.

    Would i triple barrel here?
    NO...

    Why?

    Your equity against his calling range: 0%
    How often does he fold: 37%

    To make this just above +EV you really can't risk much chips here: Probably about half pot or something in that area.

    Because the +EV here is so small because you are close to a break-even play. Now betting small sets up a different dynamic and may bite you in the back if you are not careful giving away bet sizing tells, so this has his positives and negatives that you must consider.

    However your equity against his overrall range here is about 36%. Not the greatest but not the worse either.
    Here is 2 critical things to consider:

    1. You are in position so you can end this hand or continue it by betting.
    2. Which option allows you to win more money in the long run since you have these 2 options.

    Whenever i think about checking at showdown (and only at showdown to end a hand), i think about my equity as in terms of how much money out the pot am i sharing with the villian.

    So 36% is roughly about $75. So in the long run even though he wins more often i still have about $75 out this pot that i sometimes win. Might not be the right "EV" way of looking at it, its something i personally came up with and do, however, compared to if i choose to bet:

    1. I can't bet my usual 70% - 80% (somewhere in there) because i'm losing money here.
    2. So if im just above break-even at betting half pot then technically im winning about $20 at best in the long run by risking more money...

    Why risk more to lower my already low chance of success to win the pot here?


    One thing i see that comes up in my studies, since i study around +EV calculations alot... Is that thinking about continuing a bluff (barrelling) when the board pairs is almost always a bad idea. Hands get stronger, calling gets easier and if its a spot where we can bluffcatch really good as pros imagine the flip scenario?

    Hope my breakdown don't confuse you but i really had to show this since getting here at the river and breaking down his ranges is very important.

    -Rello
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    Def not a spot I'd fire again.

    1. It's button v. blind which makes people (justifiably) skeptical.
    2. It's a static flop, which makes you less inclined to 3x barrel
    (read http://edmillerpoker.com/2015/04/21/the ... ed-miller/)
    3. This river card is an absolutely dreadful barreling card.
    4. You can beat a bricked draw with your pair of deuces.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    Not sure if this changes people's perspectives but let me restate that:

    SB was the fishy player I was hoping would call. He did not, however.
    BB was the solid, aggressive player who did call.

    I should have been clearer in my introduction of the players.
  • SCP00SCP00 Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    Check behind or make a huge bet depending of my table image at that session.
    You are winning to the flush draw and you arent getting any folds from 2nd pairs.. If u bet smallish, you even can be check-raised.
    But an overbet, I think you can get folds to almost everything but depends how the villain see you.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I should have read it more clearly.

    However, I'm not sure it changes the situation entirely too much.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    Thanks for the responses.

    And Rello - that was quite the response. Thanks for taking the time.
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    SCP00 wrote:
    But an overbet, I think you can get folds to almost everything but depends how the villain se

    I think an overbet here is really good because you could even get some weak Kx to fold, but the thing is here: this spot needs to be more balance than anything because the amount you risk and now you need precise information on your villian to know that he can fold exactly and what you need him to fold for this to be a good play.

    I personally don't recommend this until you really know your villian game a bit more deeper.
    Skors3 wrote:
    Thanks for the responses.

    And Rello - that was quite the response. Thanks for taking the time.

    Your welcome & keep it up..
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • SCP00SCP00 Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    Rello242 wrote:
    SCP00 wrote:
    But an overbet, I think you can get folds to almost everything but depends how the villain se

    I think an overbet here is really good because you could even get some weak Kx to fold, but the thing is here: this spot needs to be more balance than anything because the amount you risk and now you need precise information on your villian to know that he can fold exactly and what you need him to fold for this to be a good play.

    I personally don't recommend this until you really know your villian game a bit more deeper.

    I understand you but villain has been agressive until this hand. Why he would be on trapping mode on a drawing board?

    I expect villain have a lots of flushes and 44+ to 99+. If u check, u win to the draws, if u overbet, I would be surprised getting called..

    But, on the other hand, I unfortunately don't play this limits. :(
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    SCP00 wrote:
    I understand you but villain has been agressive until this hand. Why he would be on trapping mode on a drawing board?

    One thing why i say information is key is because the metagame here is critical for that many chips..
    How does the villian look at this spot? Him being aggressive means he probably won't have full houses or quads, which leaves him with hands he should be willing to fold right?

    Well for one, it goes back to my saying about not trying this with unknown & fishy players..

    Against someone who is thinking, the first thing here is how they really perceived your range. If you had a value hand why not bet normally? Why not bet a size to get that looks more value-ish? Why would a Kx bet so big here? How often does he have a backdoor flush? Is this only full houses or quads betting here?

    See how the metagame starts to creep in? What if he seen you value bet a river before and you didn't overbet?

    Overbetting is a great tool to have in my opinion, actually its an excellent tool to have, but i can't just recommend it to anybody because then they have to focus on being balance more than usual and precise information.

    Other things that i really would like to know before investing a great amount into the pot, is he folding some of his Kx? All of his Kx here or none? Does he ever think he could hero call because of miss draws?

    Pulling a triple barrel without information is already tough, and it already requires a great amount of information. To pull off the overbet here, there is alot of questions that have to be answered before even considering it.

    My thing is, the overbet is not a bad play here its just something i would not recommend until hero can provide some proof he know his villian inside out.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • SCP00SCP00 Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    I agree with u at all aspects. And its because of the metagame tht i like the overbet.
    Let me try to explain it:

    Assumptions: a aggressive player in 2-5 is a thinking player. The draws dont call, so lets assume villains range is pockets pairs and Kxs.

    In a villains perspective:
    - the guy double barrel and when came the 2nd K and missed flush,he overbets it. If he has the K, he wants me in the pot. So, he missed it and wants to buy the pot. Easy call
    - but wait!! He knows tht I think and he is a thinking player also. He knows tht I'm calling,so why? Because he wants a call!! He must have a set, AK or made a back flush draw!! Im not getting in his trap and fold.

    Then if he is very good,he thinks that his villain ha thought on this and can overbet safely with a bluff hand and calls.. Lol!! But dont believe it...

    Wht do u think?

    PS.:writting from a mobile..
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    SCP00 wrote:
    I agree with u at all aspects. And its because of the metagame tht i like the overbet.
    Let me try to explain it:

    Assumptions: a aggressive player in 2-5 is a thinking player. The draws dont call, so lets assume villains range is pockets pairs and Kxs.

    In a villains perspective:
    - the guy double barrel and when came the 2nd K and missed flush,he overbets it. If he has the K, he wants me in the pot. So, he missed it and wants to buy the pot. Easy call
    - but wait!! He knows tht I think and he is a thinking player also. He knows tht I'm calling,so why? Because he wants a call!! He must have a set, AK or made a back flush draw!! Im not getting in his trap and fold.

    Then if he is very good,he thinks that his villain ha thought on this and can overbet safely with a bluff hand and calls.. Lol!! But dont believe it...

    Wht do u think?

    PS.:writting from a mobile..

    Ok let me take the time to really go over this spot so we can come to an agreement here besides it being just a good play.

    First off before we enter the metagame, let us think about what we need to fold to make this a +EV play. This something i needed to personally check as well since i don't really encounter spots like this at all.

    Now first off, there is a few hands here by the river that i think my opponent will have. I dont think he has that many pocket pairs here by the river, actually i'm sticking with my original assumption that by the river villian has this range:

    AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ad5d, Ac4c, Ad4d, Ac3c, Ad3d, Ac2c, Ad2d, KJs+, K9s-K5s, KJo+, K9o, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6c4c, 6d4d, 54s

    Assuming we bet something like: $250 into $222
    To be break-even:

    Villian must call with: Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KQs, KJs, K9s, K8s, KQo, KJo, K9o, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d
    Villian must fold with: AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, K7s, K6s, K5s, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 5h4h, 5c4c, 5s4s


    Here is where the complications starts to set in:

    -The metagame you speak of works both ways, how many times as a player have you yourself thought about a play and asked why is he doing "this" versus a standard bet? The times when he thinks about what your range looks like, its going to be more polarized, meaning nuts or air. Your nuts is not your Kx hands nor your flushes. Your nuts is a full house. So to balance off his calling range he is going to have to look you up with some second best calls if he is a good thinking player.

    -Also, if you didn't notice what starts to happens here is metagame is a "bigger" assumption now meaning that it requires more information to be correct.


    My problem is this: we need to know exactly how villian perceives us and how he reacts when he perceives us because we need to know exactly, and i mean exactly how much of his range we need to fold. Taking a step backwards, we need to know exactly what folds we need to make this the typical break-even play at least on a guesstimate.

    (Its good to see that i was correct that if i can get some weak Kx to fold then we are sitting on a break-even to +EV play with the overbet)

    Believe it or not, if this was flipped and i was to be making a call here: My backdoor flush never folds here & the top of my Kx range doesn't fold here. Why? The only hands he really represents well here are full houses like i said. Too many draws were missed and i only need him to have a very few combos of bluff for this to be a correct break-even call.

    Now back to the original statement: We need precise information on our villian and right now as much as a good play this may be i just won't recommend it until hero can provide such information.

    P.S. I don't believe metagames exists between 2 new players and even if there is an exception where 2 players been going at it, the metagame is relatively small. I like to think Metagames are for players that know each other from over thousands and thousands of hands.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • SCP00SCP00 Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    I agree with whay your saying. You are right.

    But I disagree that we have only nuts or air here. We could have AK or backstraight flushes here, I think.
    Some of the calling range that you assigned could get aggressive in that weak turn bet in a very aggressive player.

    But more important, we dont know well the villain and hero and is very dependant of that

    Great post from you Relo.
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    That can be debatable later i guess, but all the more reason why we need know what and why we are doing and against who.

    Here is some thought about it: If we have majority of our top range in our overbet then what do we have when we make a standard river bet? Do we ever bluff as much with the overbet or do we keep it fill with majority of our value range? If we only have value here how does our villian play correctly? If we do bluff, how often do we bluff with this? What will our overbet frequency compared to other bet sizing frequency looks like on the river and how that affect our range?

    Once again i am not knocking off that this isn't a good spot for making such a play, but even now as i think just what we are throwing in this range, this itself is something that really needs alot of proofing to make sure we don't bleed money or miss value.

    So I'll agree with you that it is a good spot for a bluff and we both agree this is a dynamic that takes precise information to pull off, but now thinking in terms of ranges, im more incline to say i don't even want hero to consider this without doing some work off the table in this spot.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • SCP00SCP00 Red Chipper Posts: 72 ✭✭
    Yeah, this is a very specific spot where you have to do a lot of homework before considering it.

    I overbet time to time when I think the opponent and board are adequate for that. It's more value oriented really. Now the percentages I can't say it. Thats why I love to post in this forum. You reply and justify and show me the work I have to do yet. Thanks Rello ;)

    P.s.: Could we see now the result? Just curiosity. hehehheheh
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    I checked back. Villian had :Q? :J? off suit. So my pair of :2? s were good.
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    Skors3 wrote:
    I checked back. Villian had :Q? :J? off suit. So my pair of :2? s were good.

    Whenever i see a hand like that show up, thats note worthy...
    I expect villian to be floating a wide range more often so based on that we could say villian may not be fit or fold (or at least towards you)...
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com

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