Finding the Opponent's Range

RussRuss Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
I'm gonna start posting my loser hands. The hands where I lost the most money for the session. I'm hoping this exercise will help me evaluate my choices. I think Splitsuit's handbook has helped me, but quite frankly, since I've started in on those exercises I've crashed and burned. So this is as much forcing myself to self-study as much as anything. That said, criticism of my play is welcome.

Global Poker $0.05/$0.10 Six Max

Villain: SB, $18
Hero: MP, $12

Folds to H, who looks down at :AS::QS: and raises 3x
Villain completes in the SB

Flop: :AD::KC::6H:

V checks, Hero bets $0.37.
V check raises to $2.00

Ok, so I've been told over and over and over that at the micro stakes you should believe your opponent when he says he has it. Is he saying that here? If he has it, why blow me off the pot? This smells like trying to win the pot before any other cards come out.

What am I putting my opponent on preflop? I'm not fearing a set of 6's, because I don't call a RFI with 66. I'm probably too tight, and it influences me on what my opponent is holding.

AA , KK beats me, but I'm thinking my opponent would 3B that. But do they at micro stakes?

AK beats me. Again, I'm expecting a 3B against that, but less so than AA and KK.

A6s. Ok, maybe. K6? No.

So I think I'm happy with my position here. I call

The river bricks and V goes AI. I'm back to two considerations:

1. V has made an aggressive action on the turn. Ed Miller is screaming in my head to fold.
2. On the flop, after a LOT of thought, I believed I was good. The turn bricks, I have no real reason to think differently. Do I?

Later on I put the hand in Flopzilla, and even giving the V range more credit than I would call with, my hand is still up 47%-36%.

River is irrelevant as the V shows K6s for the win. Sigh.

Ok. So K6 is not within my range estimate at all. I really thought I read this hand ok. Am I way off here?

Note: I'm mostly trying to improve my live $1/2 game, but I'm 6 hours from a casino, so I use online to practice. I'm starting to wonder if that isn't a mistake. The standard RFI at the casinos I've been in is 6x. Certainly the SB isn't completing K6 for $6, is he? How many times have we heard that raises online can be smaller, like 2.5x?

So my solution to this hand was to RFI bigger than 3.5x, to get the villains to pay for playing too many hands, and try to find a range that I can reasonably estimate without seeing monster villain hands on every flop.

Thoughts?

Russ

Comments

  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    @Russ I
    I often say that poker is a "conversation" in which chips are used to communicate.

    now, assuming V isn't some drunk dude clicking buttons - let's look at this conversation:
    first, you're in MP and you raise.
    what should that mean to your V?
    if you're tight or nitty, it means a strong range.
    if you're loose and spewy, it could mean any cards that you find pretty

    V calls.
    What does that mean?
    well, I like your interpretation - it's probably not AA, KK or AK.
    (unless he's tricky)
    So V has a "drawing" hand and not a "made" hand

    on the flop, we can all agree you have range advantage
    The A & K should hit you more often than it does a "calling range"
    V checks and you bet.
    What does your bet mean?
    It should mean that you at the very least have an Ace... right?
    (I'm assuming you play somewhat tight)

    Now V check/raising you.
    What's he saying?
    Well, you said, "hey dude, I've got an Ace and I've got the best hand."
    but then V says, "hey dude, I know you've got an Ace and I can beat that"

    now here comes the interesting part
    A lot of Vs will do this "dishonestly" with the expectations of making their hand by the river. They will sometimes do this with Flush Draws and Straight draws...
    but look at the flop!
    it's as dry as the Sahara!
    there ain't no read draws here.
    so we can rule out semi-bluffs.

    let's also look at the pot:
    you raised 30¢, he calls. you bet 37¢ and he raises...
    he's raising $1.63 to win like $1.34.

    this is not a whisper.
    this is not even a minor disagreement.
    this is your opponent YELLLING AT YOU THAT HE'S GOT THE NUTS!!!!

    now, you sitting there wondering why would someone yell at you...
    this makes no sense. He should try and min-raise you and lull you into a false sense of security, no?

    well, look at stack sizes...
    how the heck is he ever going to win your full stack if he doesn't build a pot?

    when I first began playing a lot, I used to think guys were trying to bluff me.
    so I called a lot.
    and then I was shown hands that beat me.

    after some careful study, I realized that no one was trying to bluff me.
    I played tight. (too tight) so they were simply taking me to value town when they hit.
    I needed to learn how to fold.

    your flaw here is "falling in love with your hand"
    when you've raised pre-flop, and you've gotten a flop that should hit you harder than your callers... AND YET your Vs check/raise you... consider that you're beat.
    And fold.

    I'm always amazed at the players who get stacked and say, "well, you've got A LOT of hands in your range that I beat - so I HAD to call."
    No, you didn't.
    Occam's Razor:
    If the dude is representing 2-pair+, then he's got 2-pair+.
    Fold.
    On to the next hand.

    So, should your raise larger pre?
    why?
    this V is obviously playing "bingo" poker - calling with any two and jamming when he hits.
    you'd only be creating a bigger pot that now is more difficult to defend.

    the funny thing about folding is you naturally think you'll become more exploitable. and in theory, you're correct.
    but in the low limit games (at least live), no one's got the cojones to try and bluff you on such a dry board with air. (I've even seen players tell the raiser, "you're such a weak player that I know you would only raise me with a nutted hand - so I fold my AQ" and they would do it face up.... now I don't recommend you doing this, but it makes my point.)

    so while you're becoming more "exploitable" you're really not.
    And once I stopped paying off my Vs who outflopped me... they stopped trying to stack me. Because it became clear to them that THEY were taking all the risks, and since I was folding to major aggression on the flop... THEY weren't getting the rewards.

    Yes, listen to Ed Miller's voice that was telling you to fold.
    "Don't pay them off"

    Once you stop trying to make your V's actions reflect what you would do, you'll start to become a stronger, winning player.
    Learn to interpret the language of poker chips.
    Then, learn to listen to what they're saying.
    You may be wrong a few times here or there.
    But if you keep practicing, you'll start to really understand how speak with authority.

    hope this helps.
    GL & run good
  • Chris SChris S Red Chipper Posts: 60 ✭✭
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    the funny thing about folding is you naturally think you'll become more exploitable. and in theory, you're correct.

    ...so while you're becoming more "exploitable" you're really not.
    And once I stopped paying off my Vs who outflopped me... they stopped trying to stack me. Because it became clear to them that THEY were taking all the risks, and since I was folding to major aggression on the flop... THEY weren't getting the rewards.

    Had to highlight this. Good folds of strong but beaten hands is gold for your image -- and will allow you to exploit others, not the other way around.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    @kagey You're really killing these hand analysis - so much going on here that is REALLY helpful, and it's fun to read. Nice man!
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    @kagey You're really killing these hand analysis - so much going on here that is REALLY helpful, and it's fun to read. Nice man!

    sorry bout that... I had a moment of weakness...
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    Haha you should be. Quality material is definitely not what we want here.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Call down. I would also flat the raise with aa kk ak and let him barrel off.

    You lose to A6s and 66 but also beat many combos of AT-AJ, JT, QT, etc. They can easily barrel off with gutter + bdfd.

    Ive folded on dry texture before also but against nits and action was a little different. Ill post in another thread. Need a good read to fold AQ on AK6r. Other wise why even bet the flop?
  • RussRuss Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    edited October 2017
    kagey wrote: »
    @Russ I
    I often say that poker is a "conversation" in which chips are used to communicate.

    @kagey

    Thank you for the very in depth analysis. I've studied what you said and I'm going to go back and look at it yet again.

    I guess I'm screwing myself up here because for 10 years now, my nit style has caused me to fold anything but the absolute nuts. I'm sure villains have recognized this and pounded me (my buddies at a home game mentioned this to me). So I'm busy looking to take advantage of an opponent playing less-than-best hand and, well, I'm ignoring the conversation I guess.

    @Austin - that was pretty much my thinking. I mildly considered 66. I discounted K6...and paid for it.

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