Made hand strength confusion

Aleksandr ZAleksandr Z Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Hi! I'd really appreciate your advice. How would you play this hand?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $7.94 (79.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $9.18 (91.8 bb)
MP1: $11.17 (111.7 bb)
MP2: $15.83 (158.3 bb)
MP3: $14.19 (141.9 bb)
CO: $9.50 (95 bb)
BTN: $5.18 (51.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kdiamond4.gif Adiamond4.gif
5 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.90, BTN calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.85) 7spade4.gif 8spade4.gif 6spade4.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.85) Kclub4.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, BTN raises to $2.40, Hero raises to $9.10 and is all-in, BTN calls $1.88 and is all-in

River: ($10.41) 4diamond4.gif (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $10.41 pot ($0.47 rake)
Final Board: 7spade4.gif 8spade4.gif 6spade4.gif Kclub4.gif 4diamond4.gif
Hero showed Kdiamond4.gif Adiamond4.gif and lost (-$5.18 net)
BTN showed 2spade4.gif Aspade4.gif and won $9.94 ($4.76 net)

preflop
Villain just join the game. All I know, he has a half of stack size and plays at 4 more tables. He opens BTN so 3bet is for value. I expect to get called by at least some pocket pairs (66-QQ) and some worse broadways (AT+,KQ,KTs+,JTs+,QJs+)

flop
I completely missed. I don’t think cbet is good here. I expect villain to continue with all pairs, flushes and flushdraws, which is a majority of his range. My line is check/fold.

turn
I have no reasons to assume that villain would bet his draws and pairs on flop but I believe he would bet his sets. Thus, I have more of a value hand. Once getting raised I think it's TP+ and I've got about 45% EV against his range. I have too much EV to fold and I can’t call here because I don't know how to play pretty much any river.

Comments

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,212 ✭✭✭✭
    Your preflop and flop reasoning and actions make sense to me. However, I think you're overestimating your equity on the turn. How many hands that you beat are raising this turn?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 818 ✭✭✭
    I would be check-calling this turn if not check-folding.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,263 ✭✭✭✭
    You noticed he was 1/2 stacked, that's good but not enough because you still 3B in a standard sizing without giving too much thought in it i guess. By habit most likely, as all we see in forum verse in online poker realm is 3x/9x/22x.

    But you should ask yourself if the sizing is appropriate for this situation.

    Why not go 12x? 15x? just make him meet the leverage point pre-flop. You got a hand that have great potential but you are OOP facing a short stack, there won't be a lot of maneuverability post-flop when you miss. Go big, and if he folds just be it.

    Often times those short stacks still calls big opens and suddenly on flop they realized how committed they are, although they don't know what commitment mean in Poker, they still realize that the pot is somewhat big relative to their stacks and they decide to call or shove all kind of trashy hands which you'll be far ahead even when you miss.
  • Aleksandr ZAleksandr Z Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Thank you!

    In my view it’s KT+ and flushes. However, it’s too much of a guessing.

    3betting larger make sense to me. OOP I want to keep things simple, especially without information.
  • WardoYTWardoYT Red Chipper Posts: 195 ✭✭
    Really easy to tell that he had a flush on that draw board!!!! I would've folded after the flop.
  • WardoYTWardoYT Red Chipper Posts: 195 ✭✭
    He re raise you that's the key to seeing its a flush draw or a better hand. That's 2 times he re raised.
  • Tim BTim B Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    Hey, I don't really see how you come to the conclusion of having 45% equity after the raise. Even if you had that much equity, don't you think this goes down a significant amount if your jam gets called? The only hands I see calling your jam are KK (1 combo), AK (6 combos of which 3 are ahead of you) and flushes (you're drawing dead). So this pretty much is a complete bluff and I really don't think you have the fold equity you need to support this shove.
  • WardoYTWardoYT Red Chipper Posts: 195 ✭✭
    What do you mean by fold equity? You lose something every fold right? Tim?
  • Tim BTim B Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    WardoYT wrote: »
    What do you mean by fold equity? You lose something every fold right? Tim?

    That's just the percentage villain will fold to your all-in. The higher it is, the more profitable your shove in general, but I don't think it is high enough to be even a break even shove in this case.
  • WardoYTWardoYT Red Chipper Posts: 195 ✭✭
    I see but he didn't even have equity against a bluff flush hit...
  • dnoyeBdnoyeB Red Chipper Posts: 66 ✭✭
    I'm pretty raw at hand analysis but I'll toss my 0.10 in. V raises preflop then calls the 3-bet. OK. Then he checks the flop and let's it walk on this small board after all that preflop action. Your preflop action makes you less likely than he to be on a draw. So I doubt he's scared of the flush(from your perspective). Why no cbet? If he was good enough to call preflop then he's darn sure good enough to Cbet.(I like your check)
    Whatever his reason I can understand your bet on the :Kc

    But when he raises you with that tiny money behind I don't know about the small reraise you did. I don't see any indication that he would fold.
  • Aleksandr ZAleksandr Z Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    I think I've created this tough spot myself. With the information I have it's really hard to think about turn. As played I should've probably bet/fold this turn.
    However yesterday I've found myself in very similar spot. Half-stacked villain playing 1 table, no reads. This time I made larger 3bet and here what happens:

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    MP2: $3.77 (37.7 bb)
    MP3: $10 (100 bb)
    CO: $11.21 (112.1 bb)
    BTN: $5.14 (51.4 bb)
    Hero (SB): $10.46 (104.6 bb)
    BB: $10 (100 bb)
    MP1: $15.65 (156.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Aclub4.gif Kclub4.gif
    4 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $1.10, BB folds, BTN raises to $5.14, Hero calls $4.04

    Flop: ($10.38) Kdiamond4.gif 6club4.gif Kspade4.gif (2 players)
    Turn: ($10.38) Jdiamond4.gif (2 players)
    River: ($10.38) 2spade4.gif (2 players)

    Results: $10.38 pot ($0.47 rake)
    Final Board: Kdiamond4.gif 6club4.gif Kspade4.gif Jdiamond4.gif 2spade4.gif
    BTN showed Qclub4.gif Tspade4.gif and lost (-$5.14 net)
    Hero showed Aclub4.gif Kclub4.gif and won $9.91 ($4.77 net)
  • WardoYTWardoYT Red Chipper Posts: 195 ✭✭
    I think I've created this tough spot myself. With the information I have it's really hard to think about turn. As played I should've probably bet/fold this turn.
    However yesterday I've found myself in very similar spot. Half-stacked villain playing 1 table, no reads. This time I made larger 3bet and here what happens:

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    MP2: $3.77 (37.7 bb)
    MP3: $10 (100 bb)
    CO: $11.21 (112.1 bb)
    BTN: $5.14 (51.4 bb)
    Hero (SB): $10.46 (104.6 bb)
    BB: $10 (100 bb)
    MP1: $15.65 (156.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Aclub4.gif Kclub4.gif
    4 folds, BTN raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $1.10, BB folds, BTN raises to $5.14, Hero calls $4.04

    Flop: ($10.38) Kdiamond4.gif 6club4.gif Kspade4.gif (2 players)
    Turn: ($10.38) Jdiamond4.gif (2 players)
    River: ($10.38) 2spade4.gif (2 players)

    Results: $10.38 pot ($0.47 rake)
    Final Board: Kdiamond4.gif 6club4.gif Kspade4.gif Jdiamond4.gif 2spade4.gif
    BTN showed Qclub4.gif Tspade4.gif and lost (-$5.14 net)
    Hero showed Aclub4.gif Kclub4.gif and won $9.91 ($4.77 net)

    That's a very fortunate situation nice!!!

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