Section I, Hand #10

QuadzillaQuadzilla Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
Section I, Hand #10
(Check out “The Postflop Poker Podcast,” Episode 39 – Bet Sizing, where this hand is discussed/reviewed: http://www.postfloppoker.com/poker-podcast/2017/7/18/postflop-poker-podcast-episode-39-bet-sizing) Confession: I listened to the podcast a month prior to working through hand #10.

Live $60.00 Final Table. 6 handed with five payouts: 5)300, 4)500, 3)700, 2)1000, 1)1500.
UTG (Weak LAG) 60BB, HJ (Super Nit) 38BB, CO (Hero) 55BB, B (Nit) 30BB, SB (Weak TAG) 28BB, BB (Solid LAG) 147BB
20 Minute Blinds, Blinds increase in 16 minutes, No Antes

Pre-Flop
Folds to Hero in CO.

Typical opening range for CO: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s
40%
534 Combos

Current Table Dynamics, Open Raise Range: AA-JJ,AKs,[50]TT-88,AKo-AQo,AQs,KQs[/50]
Open raise AA-JJ, AKs; open raise 50% / Limp 50% TT-88,AKo-AQo,AQs,KQs
4%
53 Combos
Weakest PP: 88
Suited Connector: KQs
Ax: AQo
Button and small blind fold, BB calls…

Flop: Qc 7d 2h Pot=7.1BB

BB checks, Hero checks for pot control
(I’d check most of my range; in fact I’d check everything except KK)

Turn: Qc 7d 2h 9h Pot=7.1BB

BB/Villain bets: 4BB, Hero calls.
AA-JJ,AKs,[50]TT-88,AKo-AQo,AQs,KQoKQs[/50] Combos: 53
I’d re-raise with QQ and call the rest of my range.

River: Qc 7d 2h 9h Qs Pot=15.1BB
Pot=36.1BB
BB/Villain bets: 21BB.
I’d call with trip Qs and wired 9s and fold everything else.

Comments

  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 546 ✭✭✭
    Hey @Quadzilla I'll post my analysis below. I didnt listen to the podcast so maybe I screwed this whole hand up!

    We are in the cutoff and are five handed. The BB is the chip leader, a solid LAG so they will play back at me hard as I steal. How does he perceive me? How have I played to get here? Has he seen me steal a lot? Do I have any space in that domain? With the other players being tight and transparent, we know we can raise and bail anything they play into us with. So it’s just that BB that is going to be the problem.

    22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, ATo+, A5o-A2o, KJo+, JTo, T9o, 98o - 25%/334 combos. I think we can open this wide since we do have something of a stack. I think we can call any 3x raise with a good merged range, fold all but premiums to any push. We can reraise our premiums and some of the higher suited connectors to a reraise. Those Axo would be the only cards I’d be hesitant about playing here.

    22 is the lowest PP - we can still make our odds to set mining, so we can call a 3bet
    76s would be my lowest open. I think I would be tending toward a fold with the medium suiteds, reraise with the higher suiteds
    A2s can open and call A2-A5, probably fold out the A6-A9 and reraise AT-AK

    I see BB being very wide here with his 3bets.

    Flop: Qc 7d 2h

    This is a bad flop for us and a good one for V. Caution here.

    So the question is what do we cbet and what do we check and what value do we check to balance the rest of our checking range?

    So what if we check this: QQ+, AKs, AJs-A8s, KJs-K9s, Jh9h+, Jc9c+, Jd9d+, Th8h+, Tc8c+, Td8d+, 9h8h, 9c8c, 9d8d, ATo+, A5o-A3o, KJo — 13.5%/155

    And bet this: JJ-22, AQs, A7s-A2s, KQs, QTs+, Js9s+, Ts8s+, 9s8s, 87s, 76s, A2o, KQo, JTo, T9o, 98o - 13%/153 - so basically we check half our range and bet half our range and we include some monsters on each side, some draws and some value. Might want to move one or two Qx combos from betting into checking, though.

    And of our betting range, what do we do when we are raised? Fold the lower PPs, call some of the sets and some of the Qx and some of the FDs.

    Do we have a 3bet range? Maybe the 77, the AQ and balancing a few FDs?

    QJ I’m going to bet, but it could easily be a check here too to balance
    JJ is a bet
    AKo is a check

    Turn: Qc 7d 2h 9h

    Not a terrible card for us - JT now is good, our 99s got good, all our heart draws. KJ have gutshots.

    V bets 4 into 7, so just over 1/2 pot. We are getting 2.6 or so to 1 to call. A little over 25%, so let’s keep going with 70% of the range we ended up checking with (which makes me think maybe we would have bet less/checked more on that flop? Or visa versa?)

    Gonna keep going with 105 combos, and some of those we will raise here. So what do we raise? QQ, A8-AJhh, T8, JT…
    Call with KK+, AKs, Jh9h, Jc9c, Jd9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Td9d, 9h8h, 9c8c, 9d8d, AQo+, KJo - 5%/55 combos. This is probably a good range of value and drawing hands. What I haven’t included here will make up the other half of the raising hands: QQ, AhJh-Ah8h, KJs-KTs, Kh9h, JhTh, JcTc, JdTd, Th8h, AJo-ATo - 3.7%/42 combos. Probably want to find a few more hands for each range…

    River is Qc 7d 2h 9h Qs

    V overbets 21BB, which is half my stack. I need 21 to win 37, so 1.7 or so. 42%? My equity calc says I have 62% against his full range. If I cut it way down to something more reasonable: about 51/49 with lots of busted FDs and middle and bottom pairs. He doesn’t have to have a Q here but he has way more than I have at this point. Basically all I can call here are my AA and KK. I can’t see calling with 9x.

    Q8 isn’t here but if it was I think I’d have to call.
    TT isn’t here and I think I’m folding if it was, although against this reduced range I am 70% so maybe I should be calling...
    AK are folds.

    If he was a much smaller bet - say giving me a 20% cost to call, then the Q8, the TT - almost any PP really - become callable… But this is a crippling amount to me, which V must know, which probably loosens his range and so maybe we should call with everything but those A high hands?? Half my stack... The other part of this is — what’s my read on V. Does he know to overbet this pot with bluffs, because I’ll give it up to fight another day??
  • Laurence CLaurence C Red Chipper Posts: 28 ✭✭
    Here's my analysis.
    CO Open Range: AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s [23.4% or 310 Combos]

    Flop:
    :Qc :7d :2h

    Value Betting Hands: AA-77,44-22,AKo-AQo,KQo,QJo-QTo,AKs-A3s,KQs,QJs,97s,87s,76s,Ac2c,Ad2d,KhJh,KcJc,KdJd,KhTh,KcTc,KdTd,Kh9h,Kc9c,Kd9d,QhTh,QdTd,Qh9h,Qd9d,JhTh,JcTc,JdTd,Jh9h,Jc9c,Jd9d,Th9h,Tc9c,Td9d,Th8h,Tc8c,Td8d,9h8h,9c8c,9d8d,8h6h,8c6c,8d6d [70% or 195 Combos]

    Checking/Folding Hands: AJo, ATo, KJo, KTo, JTo, 66, 55.

    Turn:
    :Qc :7d :2h :9h
    On the turn, raise for value with sets (QQ, 99,77,22) and 2 pairs (Q9s and 97s).
    Everything else is a call.
    Turn Range: AA-99,77,22,AKo-AQo,KQo,QJo-QTo,AKs-AQs,A9s,KQs,97s,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,KhJh,KcJc,KdJd,KhTh,KcTc,KdTd,Kc9c,Kd9d,QhJh,QhTh,Qd9d,JhTh,JcTc,JdTd,Jc9c,Jd9d,Tc9c,Td9d,Th8h,Tc8c,Td8d,8h7h,8h6h,8c6c,8d6d,7h6h [71.9% or 133 Combos]

    River:
    :Qc :7d :2h :9h :Qs

    Raising with Quads (QQ), Full House (Q9s, 99, 77, 22), 3 of a Kind (AQ, KQ, QJ, QT).
    Calling Range: AA-99,77,22,AQo,KQo,QJo-QTo,AKs-AQs,A9s,KQs,Q9s,97s,AhJh,AhTh,Kc9c,Kd9d,QhJh,QhTh,Jc9c,Jd9d,Tc9c,Td9d [70.1% or 82 Combos]

    BB bet puts a lot of pressure on CO to make a decision to call or fold. Even if the stakes are high, one has to decide whether BB is capable of bluffing here. The bet size is an over bet of pot size. This can either indicate monster or air in his range. So the decision is to whether to do a Hero call and make a bluff catching call.
    I would make the bluff catching call if necessary because it is very deep in the tournament and it is important to accumulate as much chips as possible, therefore, CO should take a gamble here.

  • QuadzillaQuadzilla Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Laurence C
    I agree with your river assessment that the villain's hand is polarized and he either has a monster or air; however, I disagree with your calling range, especially TT-JJ.

    While it's true that it's important to accumulate chips late in a tournament, in this case, it's really late, it's on-the-money-bubble late; in other words, as the authors' introductory prompt suggests, "Given the ICM dynamics and the position of the chip leader," and that the chip leader is "a very skilled player," holding 41% of the chips in play, and that there are three shorter stacks than the hero's, very tight play is the way to go, here.
  • QuadzillaQuadzilla Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Hi zampana1970
    Besides playing tighter preflop, I agree with most of your analysis, except I'd error on the safe side and check / call all my draws, even monster draws such as, JhTh.

    I'm not sure about the relevance of your final query: We already have a "read" on the villain--in this case, we're given the "read" by the narrator: he's a "SOLID TAG, he's "a very skilled player," and he's "applying pressure at all the right times."

    In these workbook scenarios, I think it's essential to follow the given reads, as if they're your own. Given that premise, why would the hero change/question his preflop read on the villain at the river?

    The villain is a solid player so we expect him to be bluffing this river a decent percentage of the time; unfortunately, given the current tournament dynamics, there's not a lot hero can do about it, unless he's holding the nuts, or close to it--trip queens or better. Hero's hands are tied.

    Also, keep in mind, the hero only has 7 BB invested in this pot, by the river.
  • bogata XLbogata XL Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    It is the bubble and you are 3rd stack on CO.

    I have put the stacksizes in ICMizer en the openraise range CO to 3bb is:
    66+
    A9s+
    ATo+

    So no suited BrBr and no suited connectors.
    9%

    BB is chipleader and will have a very wide callrange.

    FLOP
    The flop Q72R is very dry and you check behind.
    BB has a wide quite weak range, because with a strong hand he would have 3betted prf, because he can use ICMpressure with his big stack.

    With sets and OP I would cbet for value and protection. So QQ+, 77
    I eliminate of our range.

    TP sometimes cbet sometimes check behind, filter 50%
    PP below TP I give filter 50% (JJ, TT, 99)
    WP I eliminate
    NutFD with Axs I have in the checkbackrange, because you want to keep the pot small to avoid that you have to play for your whole stack.

    TURN
    The range of BB is wide. When he leads out turn, you can expect that he will bet river as well.
    Betsize is 55%. We call with NutFD and the 50%filter PP below TP

    RIVER
    FD bust so we fold our FDs.
    Our range is capped to busted FDs and trips.
    BB overbets pot 1.33*. Stack to potratio is about 3.
    If we loose we still have 27bb.

    I have to put it again in Equilab to see what our equity is.
    How many bluffs can BB have in his range?
    I would call trips and JJ and half of the time also TT.

    The question is if the competent BB realizes that we have mostly trips and busted FD in our range. If so, is he going to bluff?
    Maybe if he has f.e. a weak hand like 68s or 7x he will overbet to get us of PP below Trips.

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