Middle set on a draw heavy board

Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
edited October 2017 in Tournament Poker Hands
It's a $700 Live MTT with 1 hour levels and roughly 70 entries, starting stack of 30k. Blinds are 100/200. It's 7-handed at the moment.

Hero raises to 600 UTG with :9S::9C: and has roughly 44.000 chips.

Villain UTG+1 (aggro fish, ~39.500 chips) raises to 1600 (x2.7). Folds to hero who completes, putting villain on AKs, AKo, AQ, AQs, AJs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ.

Flop (3500): :AC::9D::7D:

Hero checks. Villain checks.

Turn (3500): :AC::9D::7D::4S:

Hero bets 3000 chips. Villain has shown tendency to over-value TPTK and has shown tendency to call down with second pairs and raising top pairs without top kicker and essentially slow-plays flops so he's likely to have a strong holding that can pay off despite having checked the flop and has not shown tendency to read into bet sizes.

Villain raises to 9000. leaving himself with roughly 28900 remaining.

Hero thinks that villain is over-valuing his holding often enough to go for max-value at this point and the the board is very draw-heavy and while Hero is not particularity worried about the possible draws it's less likely that villain will be willing to pay hero off on the river if a scare card peels off. Hero puts villain all in (x3.2).
Villain calls, rolling over the :AS::AH:

My main thoughts are: this is a very slow structured tournament. Should I have taken a lower variance play and simply called the turn, not having the nuts, and evaluated river or should I always be taking this line and go for max value with such a strong holding such as second top set on a draw-heavy board against a player that has a history of over-valuing his holdings? How concerned should I be that villain checked the flop, not attempting to protect his equity, and then re-raised the turn?

Can I ever get away from this against this villain type or was this perhaps too obvious? UTG+1 3bet, check on a dynamic flop and then re-raise the turn. I don't want to be result oriented and while I think this was played correctly in its core my main concern is if I played this way too fast given how slow structured the tournament is and there's no need to rush it to get the chips in or if I should be doing exactly that to get value while the board is not scaring villain.



  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Here's what's nagging at me. I haven't looked at the spoiler yet...

    If V tends to overvalue TPTK, etc., then V would almost assuredly cbet flop. So, what hands do not cbet? Perhaps bricks like KQs or perhaps even KK. But, given the 3bet range that you assigned to V, V should be cbetting almost his entire range.

    So, why is V checking? Again, maybe a total brick... but even that's unlikely. If V was playing two random cards to try to bet you off your raise, then V would again almost assuredly cbet. In other words, besides KK, QQ, maybe JJ or something KQs, there are very, very few hands with which V would 3bet pre-flop but not cbet the flop. Something seems amiss... either V missed entirely with no real equity-when-called or V flopped a monster.

    On the turn, V then raises your near-pot-lead. As I wrote before, I just don't see many/any draws or, say, AK or AQ that play out this way to this point. So, V still has either complete air or a monster. And I also don't really see enough hands that are complete air to make me think that it's likely enough to factor in.

    Thus, V must have a monster. 99 is theoretically possible given V's play but impossible given your holding. And 77 seems a hair too weak for the pre-flop action. My radar (likely predisposed given the fact that you're posting in the first place) would then narrow it down to one single holding -- AA.

    Of course, I could be wrong (again, I haven't looked at the spoiler). And, if I'm right, I don't get much credit: (a) I can sit here and pontificate, and (b) you're obviously posting this hand for a reason. But, if the goal is off-the-table analysis, then this would be my analysis if I had all the time in the world at the moment.

    Even if I came to this conclusion at the table, though, man -- it would be brutally hard to fold my hand...
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    The reason I'm asking this question is indeed because we're sharing similar thoughts about villain's range and the action that lead up the decision point in the hand. It's nagging me up to which extend I should have played according to these exact thoughts that we're sharing. I feel like I should have seen the hand coming as it makes perfect sense for the story from villain's point of view but of course it's easy to say once the cards are dealt to showdown.

    I must have tanked for 3 minutes on the turn before going all in, deciding what I thought the best decision was at that point, and eventually decided that we're ahead often enough to get it in on the turn vs. the times we miss value from worse hands on the river when a scare card comes off, also we deny equity when villain is actually drawing with let's say, suited Broadway cards or strong AXs.

    It's easy to say that I beat such a wide portion of his range BUT exactly how many hands are in his flop-check turn-raise range that's calling a shove and is actually worse, in such a deep stacked event? Maybe :AD::KD: / :AD::QD: ?

    This is obviously a cooler and you've checked the spoiler now for sure and I don't think I'd be asking this question had I won this hand because I think the story villain portrayed would have been different - When is villain ever not c-betting the flop with a strong Ace on a draw-heavy board? Maybe with the previously mentioned diamonds?

    Are you shoving the turn like I did, are you folding or are you calling the turn? I don't think folding is an option as we'd be over-folding there but maybe we should have saved our chips by not going HAM despite having the second nuts.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Honestly, in the moment, I'm not sure that I would have done anything but shove. Not sure if that's a massive leak. I'll say this, though: I would not have called. I would either shove or fold.

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