small set against tight range

Aleksandr ZAleksandr Z Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Hi there!
I’ll appreciate your thoughts.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.30 (103 bb)
MP: $11.10 (111 bb)
CO: $9.17 (91.7 bb)
BTN: $14.66 (146.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4spade4.gif 4diamond4.gif
MP raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 4heart4.gif Kheart4.gif 7diamond4.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.31, Hero raises to $0.80, MP calls $0.49

Turn: ($2.25) 6spade4.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, MP calls $1.45

River: ($5.15) 8heart4.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.85, MP raises to $8.55, Hero folds

Results: $10.85 pot ($0.49 rake)
Final Board: 4heart4.gif Kheart4.gif 7diamond4.gif 6spade4.gif 8heart4.gif
Hero mucked 4spade4.gif 4diamond4.gif and lost (-$5.40 net)
MP mucked and won $10.36 ($4.96 net)

Villain is 17/14 AG 35% (1.2k hands). We’ve played together for a while (1.2k). He must’ve noticed I’m calling OOP relatively tight.

preflop
Villain has MP RFI 14%, I expect it to be something like 22+, AJ+, KQ+ and all suited broadways.

flop
To be honest I’ve got distracted and I’m not particularly happy with my flop line. Closer look shows that villain has 68% flop cbet IP and 89% turn cbet (30% raise and 40% call vs donk). I expect him to bet here with majority of his hands (22+,Kx, flush draws).

I made a small raise, so he could bet/call with 77+, Kx and flush draws.

turn
Usually I’m ahead, it makes sense to value bet against AA, Kx, flushdraws. At this point I expect to get raise by all of his sets.

river
Obviously, its the worst possible river. Though, I think I’m still ahead of his range (AA, AK and flushes). As played, would you bet this river for value?

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