Hand 8 Final tables workbook

Grant TGrant T Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
Hello fellow red chippers
I am fairly new and looking forward to chatting to you all.
I am slowly going through the final tables workbook and am currently up to hand 8. When I really started to struggle with the EV question, I can do the EV math for simple situations in heads up pots but I found it real tricky to estimate fold frequencies and my own equity when 3,4 or even 5 players are in the pot. I just found the formula go out of hand very quickly trying to solve for every situation; did I miss the point of this part of the question?
Thanks

Comments

  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Not yet at that part in the book.

    You can, however, estimate fold frequencies by estimating how often every individual villain's range is folding and multiplying it together to see how often you can expect a bet to successfully take down a pot.

    The best way to understand your equity away from the table is to plug your hand in something like holdem resources calculator or ICMer and plug your hand up against the ranges of the other opponents.

    BTW, Welcome.
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    Hi @Grant T I will post my text for this hand - I also struggled applying the idea of EV during final table play - doesn't ICM become our EV? I'm not sure! But this is my work thru of this hand... I hope it makes sense. It made sense to me when I did it a couple weeks ago!

    We are in the BB and have 20BB and there are 4 limps ahead of us and everyone covers us by at least 50%-150%. Likely one of these limpers will call us, considering the affect on their stack and their read that we could be pushing here wider into perceived weakness.

    Exclude the fact that EP3 might be limping AA — I see this more and more — but let’s assume this is truly a capped limping range for all Vs.

    Villains ranges, assume various flavours of this: TT-22, ATs-A2s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o - 21%/285 combos.

    They could all be a little stronger and a little weaker, but let’s average it out to this range for all 4 of them.

    So my equity of any 2 here is 16% just to the start, assuming all Vs call.
    If one calls my push, I’m 43% with 100% of my range against his limping range.

    According to ICMizer, if EP2 calls my push (the most likely, assuming ranges are similar, since he’s got the most chips), and he only calls my push with: TT-66,AT,KJs+,KQo,QJs,JTs - then I’m +EV to push basically my whole range, except for some of the worse unsuited hands (95% of my range). But the edge is thin - the overall push EV is 36%. This is too thin for me and my tournament life, IMO. IS THIS RIGHT? Or should I be taking every edge I can get?

    5% EV range would be: 77+, A2s+, A7o+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs

    1% and better EV range: 99+, AJs+, AQo+

    This is assuming 1 caller. If I’m on the button with the same stack and I assume the same EP2 open limp range, and then set the SB and BB to call very tight, I could push (21.1%) 55+,A2s+,A6o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTs+,QJo,JTs. Basically the same range that is strong EV from the BB.

    I don’t know how to use software to set up 2 or more limpers before my BB push decision point...

    87s is not an all-in, nor is A4o, assuming I want a good edge. It’s an edge but is it worth it for tournament edge?

    Now if we are just doing straight EV calcs, we can use James’ formula:

    EV = F($Pot) + C(%W*$W) – C(%L*$L)

    One note that I’m not sure of: in a tournament at the final table, is chip EV really the right thing to calculate? How is ICM worked in using this formula.

    In any case, what are the assumptions? Our V’s ranges are the same: TT-22, ATs-A2s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o - 21%/285 combos.

    We have 87s. We are going to get one caller with no fold equity, so we are 42%.

    EV= 0(5.8BB) + 100(.42*24.8BB)-100(.58*19BB) = 11.92-11.02 = .9BB

    Against 2 callers we are 28.4%

    EV= 0(5.8BB) + 100(.28*24.8BB) - 100(.72*19BB) = 6.94 - 13.68 = -6.74BB

    So clearly the more callers the less we win…






  • Ben HaylesBen Hayles RCP Coach Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Hi everyone, it's good that you're starting a discussion on this and actively working through EV calculations. Let me answer a few of the problems here.

    @Grant T estimating fold frequencies is hard, especially for different villain types. Do your best and don't be afraid of simplifying the calculation to get a rough percentage by using the advice from Jonas S. You need to consider the limping ranges for each villain and work out how many of their hands they can call with. ICM software is really helpful for showing you the GTO solutions. Often villains will fold too frequently, though, so you can get away with pushing quite wide ranges when the villains are limp/folding too much.

    @zampana1970 - in my first video for Red Chip I go through some theory, which clarifies how to do chip EV (cEV) calculations and how to modify the same formula for prize money equity EV ($EV) calculations. It's tricky. You use the same formula, but instead of measuring chips won/lost, you measure the amount your equity in the prize money goes up and down for each of the 3 outcomes. You'll need to use ICM software to help by following each of the 3 outcomes to the next hand and seeing how your equity in the prize pool has changed.

    If you use HRC, you'll find all of this a bit easier. I'd encourage you to discuss the results of your optimal shoving ranges with the various stack sizes that we posed, so you can see how your fold equity / showdown equity changes for the different depths.
  • Grant TGrant T Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Brilliant, thank you guys. I think was over complicating it a little. Great advice gives me a good place to start with this hand. I look forward to hearing from you all on further hands and trying my best to help where I can too. Thanks for having me in the this community
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 549 ✭✭✭
    Ok thanks @Ben Hayles I will definitely check out the video. This is a huge hole in my knowledge base - I only recently started to really grok how to practically make ICM decisions, and much is thanks to this workbook, so money well spent! I will go back over these hands in a second pass and do some experimenting with stack sizes and such.
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Preflop: Opening all-in for 19BB has the advantage of seeing all the loose passive players fold and puts the OOP Weak TAg under pressure. Except for Weak TAg, these player types are looking to just see more cards and hope for the best. My all-in forces them to decide. But because of Weak TAg I am not opening all-in from early position without a significate holding and A7o and 87s ain't significant.

    So I'm on 7% (94) 88+,ATs+,AJo+ (in Equilab)

    I put Loose Pass at EP3 on a capped range of 7% (94) JJ-77, AQs-A9s, KJs+, QJs, AQo-AJo, KQo

    The Weak Tag in SB is capped at 21% (282) TT-22,AQs-A2s,AQo-A9o,K4s+,K8o+,Q9s+,QTo+,JTs

    I put Loose Pass at MP2 on a capped range of 10% (134) TT-66, AQs-A8s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+

    Super Spewy on the BU limps with 35% (462) TT-22, ATs-A2s, KTs-K2s, QTs-Q4s, J6s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, ATo-A2o, KTo-K6o, QTo-Q8o, J8o+, T8o+

    The Weak Tag in SB is capped at 21% (282) TT-22,AQs-A2s,AQo-A9o,K4s+,K8o+,Q9s+,QTo+,JTs

    A simple EV calculation for each gives me a positive EV, so I'd shove on all players.

    As the % of folds increases, my EV Increases and my range widens

    Using ICMizer with 19BB my profitable range becomes (5.4%) 99+,AJs+,AQo+ and 87s, A4o, 94s are –EV so I check with them if I had them.

    Using ICMizer with 10BB my profitable range becomes 8.7% (116) 77+,AT+,KQs and KJ, A2o and 95s are –EV so I check.

    Using ICMizer with 15BB my range becomes 6.2% (86) 88+,ATs+,AQo+ and KJ, A2o and 95s are still –EV so I check.

    Using ICMizer with 25BB my profitable range becomes (4.2%) 99+,AQs+,AKo and KJ, A2o and 95s are still –EV so I check.

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