Pocket 9s in the small blind.

Stu PidassoStu Pidasso Red Chipper Posts: 50
edited April 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Game is 4-20 spread limit....8 handed. A couple people limp. I have pocket 9s. I raise to $16. Big blind re-raises to $36. I call.

Flop is Jack high as dry as the Sahara. I check, Villain bets, I call. Turn brings a Queen. Still no flush and no made straights possible. I check, villain bets. Do I find the fold here?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
    Do you think he barrels AK? Or are you thinking this is only huge hands at this point?
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  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Yep, you is it gotta fold. Even if he has AK sometimes you are just caged here.
    The Turn crushes your range here.
  • Stu PidassoStu Pidasso Red Chipper Posts: 50
    SplitSuit wrote:
    Do you think he barrels AK? Or are you thinking this is only huge hands at this point?

    He is unknown to me. My impression is that he is a bit bluffy and my gut says he could be barreling with AK.
  • Stu PidassoStu Pidasso Red Chipper Posts: 50
    Yep, you is it gotta fold. Even if he has AK sometimes you are just caged here.
    The Turn crushes your range here.

    I got stupid and check raised him. He Hollywood contemplates for a couple of moments and 3 bets. I fold. He turns over pocket Queens for a turned set. I knew I completely butchered this hand.

    The reason I posted this is because when I sat down and did some off table work on the hand the analysis surprised me. If I give him a range of TT+,AKs,AKo I still have almost 33% equity when the board is J 7 2 Q rainbow according to equilab. I need about 18% to break even. When he bets the turn there is $92 in the pot. Break even is Bet/(bet + pot) or $20/($20 + $92) or ~18%.

    Now I wonder if the optimal play is to call the turn bet and then call a river bet unless a A, K, or T hit.

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