Turn play vs. tourney player

persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited April 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Big tournament starts in next 24 hrs, room is packed for the first time in a while and there is good Saturday night energy.

3/5, $500 Cap game

Villain, loose player, but using small sizings probably related to tournaments; enjoying the game and playing with a buddy at the table, but losing. I can't be sure, as I just was moved to this table a few orbits before.

Significantly, I observed him call a large three bet pre with KQdd for half his stack.

Hero has (probably) a tight and winning image but was observed folding to a raise after x/ring a low flop, which might seem strange. On the whole, no one can know much about how I play after a short time here and not more than four hands played.

Folds all the way around to Villain ($400), who opens the button to 15.

Hero ($2500) three bets :As:Kd to 50 from SB. BB folds.

Villain snap calls, no thought.

Pot 100, flop :Kc:4h:6s

Hero continues for $60, Villain quickly calls.

Pot $220, turn :Ah

Villain has about $290 left, and I range him on nearly all pocket pairs, as he is definitely a floater, and that KQ from earlier, which just hit the nut worst card vs. my range- with the exception of KQhh. Very small chance of sets on the flop based on timing, and I don't think he ever slowplays AA.

What's the move?

Comments

  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 356 ✭✭
    We want to get stacks in regardless. The question is how to break up the remaining $290.

    Villain probably won't call a turn shove. How about betting small on the turn, about $90. This leaves us $200 for a 1/2 pot bet in to the $400 pot on the river.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    The only hands that aren't currently beating you that have significant equity are :Kh:Xh and :6h:Xh or the very unlikely :7h:5h. It's hard for any hand worse than yours to call any bet given how your range crushes this board.

    But for the same reason it's a hard board for him to bluff. If you check he might try to bluff you off qq or jj but it seems more likely he will take a free card.

    At the same time your hand is too strong to fold should he bet or raise the river. So you are giving him reverse implied odds should you check. I would either shove or bet something ridiculously small like $25 and hope he spazzes out with a raise
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Interesting thoughts so far.

    If I have QQ and equivalent underpairs, Clubber, isn't this my spot to bet again and pummel Kx into a fold? Is continuing to rep my range the only non-fancy play? If I bet $25 aren't I giving those unlikely heart hands a freeroll since I am not folding?

    What hands does he mistakenly let me x/rai with?

    @art, what hands can he call with on the river with if I bet $90 and leave most of his stack at no risk in position? Can a lone K call three barrels? If he's folding his whole non-heart range on the turn, should I check to let him improve to an unlikely two pair, Sklansky style? If I don't have many bluffs here, should I be betting, to put it into the Galfond formulation?
  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 356 ✭✭
    My feel is that truthfully he has hardly any hands he can call the turn OR river. But he is loose, and we've got to try to get a least some money while we can. That's why I feel it is imperative that we bet the turn; the question is one of sizing. We hope he has something like KQ or medium strength pair and he thinks you are barreling, representing the ace. I don't think he will call a turn shove, so I choose a value that was perhaps at the high end of what he might call with a king, and also offers him improper odds to call if he somehow ran in to a backdoor draw.

    Again, this leaves a 1/2 pot bet available on the river. He might feel that 3:1 is too good of odds to fold and might make a crying call.

    I don't like having less than 1/2 pot ever for a river bet, as it will appear that I fubar'ed my bet sizing, looking relatively amateur.

    If he somehow is playing a set, so be it. I'm not smart enough to lay down this hand at this point.

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