Missed value on the river? 1/2 live

DubiousBetDubiousBet Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
Villain is Young agro, hoodie type, looks Latino maybe?
Villain (covers) raises to 15 after a couple limpers.
I ($300) raise on CO with :As:Ks to 45. V calls.
Flop ($90)
:5s:9d:Qh
Check, check.
This is an agro kid who is capable of bluff-check/raising. My hand still has value against his range I think, but I decide to check behind for pot control. Two other things factor in here; 1) this agro player just checked. Let's wait to the turn to see if that means anything. 2) I can't continue if I get check/raised.

Turn ($90)
:Kd
Villain bets $50, I call. I now have nice showdown value with TPTK, but I don't want to bloat the pot. I have a medium strength hand that will be good at showdown often, but if we get it all in, I'm unlikely to be good.
River ($190) :6s
Villain checks
Should hero bet for value here? If so, what size?

Comments

  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    I am confused here by V betting the turn and checking the river. Maybe he was setting his price on a JTdd type of hand or other draw maybe. I think you are good here a lot. I am leaning to b/f mostly. I am not sure though what hand bet the turn that calls the river. Maybe QT or QJdd. I would go with $100-125. I dont want to go too small which could induce a shove raise.
  • DubiousBetDubiousBet Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    If he's got JT, I don't think he's ever checking the river.
  • CubanBCubanB Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    edited November 2017
    I’d expect our aggressive opponent to bet his 2pair+ hands here since he is out of position and won’t want to risk having the river checked through. And if Villain is going to bluff at this river, I’d expect him to bet out rather than try a check-raise because there’s 1) no guarantee we bet and 2) his fold equity isn’t going to be all that great because there likely won’t be much money behind when he shoves.

    So, I’d make a half-pot sized bet here, hoping to get called by a worse King or a Queen and intending to call if check-raised (even though we’re likely beat when that happens - but given his aggro profile, we probably have to call it off).

    Edit: to be clear, I think our TPTK is usually the best hand and we can get called by worse, so I think we have a value bet here on the river.
  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    correct JT would bet - i got ahead of myself. i meant turn bet could be a flush draw among 1p+straight or flush draws as well. obv JT makes nut straight on the turn.
  • Million_Dolla_SpotMillion_Dolla_Spot Red Chipper Posts: 19 ✭✭
    I agree with cxy123 and would bet around $100-125. Possible villain has Ad Qx or Q J, Q 10. If shoved on after false, I would call off.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would go smaller sizing on the river as we are hoping he has KJ or KT. All other hands likely fold the river or they are trapping, KQ, 99, JT.

    Most of his range is weak on this river and were targeting the weak range for value, so we are unlikey to be called by worse.

    Pot is $190, im leaning towards $60-90 and hopefully he hero calls with worse.

    Effective stacks are 205 on the river, so if you bet $90 it doesn't look like he will have any FE after you put in 2\3 of your stack. Depending on your read the smaller I would go to induce.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is a particular reason for why you really need to bet: when you turn your hand into a float, you are incentivized to bet on the end with most of your range (and not at a merged sizing). So it's a pretty sweet spot for a value bet and protects your overall line. What more could one want?
  • Carlos CCarlos C Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    CubanB wrote: »
    I’d expect our aggressive opponent to bet his 2pair+ hands here since he is out of position and won’t want to risk having the river checked through. And if Villain is going to bluff at this river, I’d expect him to bet out rather than try a check-raise because there’s 1) no guarantee we bet and 2) his fold equity isn’t going to be all that great because there likely won’t be much money behind when he shoves.

    So, I’d make a half-pot sized bet here, hoping to get called by a worse King or a Queen and intending to call if check-raised (even though we’re likely beat when that happens - but given his aggro profile, we probably have to call it off).

    Edit: to be clear, I think our TPTK is usually the best hand and we can get called by worse, so I think we have a value bet here on the river.
    Thomas O wrote: »
    I agree with cxy123 and would bet around $100-125. Possible villain has Ad Qx or Q J, Q 10. If shoved on after false, I would call off.

    I agree with these assessments. I would bet between 1/2 and 2/3 of the pot. Villain could most likely have AQ, QJ, QT. Maybe even TT. Being OOP, he would not want to risk missing value by not betting 2pair+ hands on the river, and with stack sizes being what they are a check/raise bluff would probably get called.

    I don't think there's anything wrong with checking back if you are unsure. Your TPTK is probably good here, and you stand to win a good size pot without risking anymore than you already have. You gain information when Villain has to show his hand. However, by checking through here, you stand to lose value on future river bets when you have stronger holdings.

    BTW, how did the hand play out?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    There is a particular reason for why you really need to bet: when you turn your hand into a float, you are incentivized to bet on the end with most of your range (and not at a merged sizing). So it's a pretty sweet spot for a value bet and protects your overall line. What more could one want?

    Some times I know to value bet more thin, meaning 1 pair hands on the river, especially at the micros when they call wide. Glad you put the "WHY" into the betting.
  • Ben WBen W Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    How do I start a new thread???
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Gotta go for that value. Not too much, 1/2 to 3/4ths. He's never checking top 2 pair or a set of QQ here. Maybe he had AQ. Your hand is 100% good.
  • DubiousBetDubiousBet Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    Since someone asked: I checked behind and he showed AQ.

    I was thinking at the time that I should probably bet the river against his range - not entirely sure why I didn't other than sometimes aggro villains can throw me off my balance. After I saw his exact hand, I was kicking myself for not betting.

    My primary reason for posting was to get feedback on value betting vs. his range and wanted to make sure my post-hand analysis was on target. Thanks everyone for the replies!

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