Re-Evaluating Pre-Flop Plan After Interesting Turn Card

Steve MSteve M Red Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
First Post All... Be Gentle...

Game = $1/$2 / 8 Players

Villain - Poker room regular who I've played with before though we haven't tangled much or have much history. Probably has a similar opinion on me. Plays a very active game which leads to a roller coaster stack. Has been very active the last hour. Good at applying pressure in a smart way & very good at bullying weaker players at the table. Likes to see flops & has no issue limp, calling bigger raises. Good, solid player.

Hero - Been at the table for a little over 2 hours. No big showdowns. Raised big pre-flop out of the SB twice & BB once after a couple of limps and took 2 pots down pre-flop & 1 with a continuation bet on the flop. Only showdown was all-in pre-flop against a short stack for ~$100 when I 3-bet a $10 raise to $35 with K,K and got it in & held against A,J. Have been pretty card dead in the last hour and should have a tighter image at this point.

Effective Stack = ~$350 (We were both pretty close to this stack though I'm not 100% sure on either of our stacks.

Hero: :Ad:Td

UTG = Folds
UTG+1 (Villain) = Raises $12

I put him on a pretty basic raising range with little value to it being an early position range. Something like 4,4+ , A9s+ , A10o+. I had seen him raise to $8 & $10 before first-in so his size lead me to slightly discount premium hands. It just didn't feel like a monster.

UTG+2 = Folds
UTG+3 = Calls $12

CO (Hero) = Raise $40

I had been looking for a spot to squeeze against a couple of players on my right who were calling light including UTG+3. Normally ATs is not in my 3-bet squeeze range but I had been card dead for a while & thought I would get credit for a big hand more than a squeeze. My plan was to barrel any dangerous looking board on all 3 streets if needed.

Button = Folds
SB = Folds
BB = Folds
Villain = Calls $40

He called rather quickly and without much thought which lead me to narrow his range to a small pocket pair. Something like 4,4 - 9,9 maybe 10,10 and a discounted AKo.

UTG+3 = Folds

Heads up to the flop / Pot = $95

:2d:3s:8c

Villain: Checks
Hero: Bets $50

Hindsight, my sizing on this bet was poor and I think should have been closer to 2/3. I had 2 green chips in my stack and wanted to look nonchalant when I threw them in hoping to show strength. He's perfectly capable of floating this flop with the range I assigned him & I knew I would have to fire 2 bullets to get him off of a naked pair.

Villain: Calls $50

Turn / Pot = $195

:4d

Villain: Checks

Hero: ???

My original plan was to fire at any turn card & shut-down to resistance because he would have to have a set at that point based on the range I assigned him but I picked up so much equity on this turn, I didn't want to get check-raised (in his arsenal) & end up getting it in poor against a set. Thoughts?

I'll respond with what happened after a couple of comments.

Thanks,

Comments

  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Steve M wrote: »

    I put him on a pretty basic raising range with little value to it being an early position range. Something like 4,4+ , A9s+ , A10o+. I had seen him raise to $8 & $10 before first-in so his size lead me to slightly discount premium hands. It just didn't feel like a monster.

    Those 2 sentences seems counter intuitive in logic.

    Also you said you normally don't squeeze with ATs which lead me to belive that you won't have Ax for the wheel. Given your low natural bluff combos numbers in your range on flop I'm kind of ok with the sizing because you'll probably fire all your narrow squeezing range.

    On Turn if you bet, I think you should go for a big size and given stack size Turn the only real option for you is overbet shove. This hand is certainly in your bluffing range Turn coupled with all your value.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    I forgot but I would probably squeeze bigger preflop.
  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 272 ✭✭✭
    Steve M wrote: »

    My original plan was to fire at any turn card & shut-down to resistance because he would have to have a set at that point based on the range I assigned him but I picked up so much equity on this turn, I didn't want to get check-raised (in his arsenal) & end up getting it in poor against a set. Thoughts?

    Lets say you bet around half pot $100, not saying that's a good size but its consistent with your flop sizing, and V shoves. The pot is now $555 and you have to call $160. So you're getting 3.5:1 and need 22.5% equity too call and against a set you have about 23% equity. This means as long as you bet half pot or bigger you'll be getting the right price to call no matter what he has.

    I agree with @Adam Wheeler and go for the overbet shove. He's probably going to have to fold AK, AQ, 77, 66 that floated the flop which means he will be folding about 50% of the time(based on the range you assigned him) and we only need him to fold 20% of the time for this to be profitable.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 333 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Welcome to the forums @Steve M .

    Your description of V is loose. He limp calls a lot... so he's not the type that's normally gonna raise EP and fold to a small squeeze.

    So, in that regard I'm not a big fan of the squeeze here. The answer why is in your own range analysis. He folds his weak hands and calls with the stronger part of his range that is not only ahead but is also likely to have you downright dominated (AJ+). And it would be brutal to have to fold this nice hand to a 4-bet without getting to see the flop! I'm all for 3-betting light. But this hand just isn't light enough... or strong enough.

    Your read on his pre bet sizing is observant, but I think this read is best used post flop, once you see the board texture. And you have position... if V and MP go crazy, you can get away easy on a bricked flop. But now here you are in a tough spot...

    Flop sizing is good vs an inelastic player, no need to bet bigger. Adam and Zero have your turn play nailed down.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Steve M wrote: »
    Game = $1/$2 / 8 Players

    Villain - Poker room regular ...blah, blah, blah... Good, solid player.

    Hero - Only showdown was all-in pre-flop against a short stack for ~$100 when I 3-bet a $10 raise to $35 with K,K and got it in & held against A,J.

    Effective Stack = ~$350

    UTG = Folds
    UTG+1 (Villain) = Raises $12

    I had seen him raise to $8 & $10 before first-in so his size lead me to slightly discount premium hands. It just didn't feel like a monster.

    UTG+3 = Calls $12

    Hero: :Ad:Td
    CO (Hero) = Raise $40

    I had been looking for a spot to squeeze against a couple of players on my right who were calling light including UTG+3. Normally ATs is not in my 3-bet squeeze range but I had been card dead for a while & thought I would get credit for a big hand more than a squeeze.

    My plan was to barrel any dangerous looking board on all 3 streets if needed.

    Villain = Calls $40... rather quickly and without much thought which lead me to narrow his range to a small pocket pair. Something like 4,4 - 9,9 maybe 10,10 and a discounted AKo.

    Heads up to the flop / Pot = $95

    :2d:3s:8c

    Villain: Checks
    Hero: Bets $50

    Hindsight, my sizing on this bet was poor and I think should have been closer to 2/3. I had 2 green chips in my stack and wanted to look nonchalant when I threw them in hoping to show strength.

    a lot of what I'm reading from your thought process is... um, how do I say it gently?... amateurish?

    I don't care for your 3-bet sizings.
    why?
    because they're so small, they encourage other players to call.
    in your AT hand, pot is already 25... so V & limper have to call 28 to win 65. or anyone behind you has to call 40 to win 65.
    i'd recommend looking at pot equity odds and hot/cold equities to truly understand how you're basically asking folks at your table to stack you.
    Also, this poor sizing makes it more difficult for you to bluff with lesser hands.
    it just didn't feel like a monster
    avoid posting such analysis.
    you don't know what V has.
    if you can accurately correlate his bet-sizing to his holdings, then fine.
    but poker is a game of logic and math... feelings is a song by Alber Morris
    ATs is not in my 3-bet squeeze range
    poker is about discipline.
    if you've pre-constructed a range, there's a reason you have it built as such
    abandoning your range construction because you're card dead is NOT a reason to do so
    his range (should be) a small pocket pair.
    My plan was to barrel any dangerous looking board...
    FLOP :2d:3s:8c
    Hero: Bets $50

    if V has mostly small pocket pairs, and the board is small cards... how is this ever a "dangerous looking board"???
    this is the second time you abandoned a plan
    wanted to look nonchalant when I threw them in hoping to show strength.
    sorry Mike McDermott, hollywooding only works... well, in Hollywood.
    acting nonchalant doesn't win you a pot when you've got zip & pip.
    poker is about range vs. range.
    in this hand, V is winning this race.
    your flop bet size is fine if it's for value.
    but since you're bluffing, it won't push V off his hand.
    and once he calls - he's got a stack-to-pot ratio of basically 1... so your shove on the turn (unless you strike a miracle Ace) will probably get called

    you sound sharp enough to make plans (although you should consider thinking ahead more)... once you make them, stick to them
    don't be embarrassed to give up a hand
    you could easily had AK there and you only hit a flop 1 out of 3 times with that hand
    don't expect your table image (tight) to do all the work for you
    AJ shoved on you because your 3-bet probably felt weak
    V called your 3-bet because it was too small
    and...
    don't buy into the Hollywooding of what chips you toss in, how you toss them or what you say as you toss them... most "room regs" are making decisions based on their holdings... not your acting skillz

    GL

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file