Is it "obvious" what I have here and if so why?

CononthepokerCononthepoker Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
This was an interesting hand that I played in a £100 tournament last night, the villain in this hand has just moved to our table 2 hands previous and I have never played against him before so I have zero info about his play or abilities and he has no info about me.

I am interested to find out what people think I have here and so will leave that information out for now...

The blinds are 500/1000 with 100ante and I am in UTG+2 and have the effective stack of 185k

I raise to 2.5k and it is folded round to the villain who is in the small blind, he calls and BB calls and it goes 3 ways to a flop.

The board is:
:Qd :Qh :9d

Villain donks for 4k, BB folds I call

The turn is:
:Jh

Villain Checks, I bet 5k, villain raises to 15.5k I call

The river is:
:As

Villain bets 25k I shove all in, villain tanks for a while and then says "You obviously have *names my hand* and then folds"

Now villain was correct in his read and what my question is, based on the action what do people think I had and if so why is it obvious? I don't believe that I give off any significant tells during play and make a lot of effort to avoid this so if we can rule out physical tells for now is there anything about the play here that would make reading my hand "obvious"

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭✭
    Got a boat AQ ?

    I'm a cash game player, so some of my analysis is biased.
    The big problem I see is: shoving 163k against a 25k river bet in a ~48k river pot (73k with river bet) on QQ9-J-A.
    -> It's a huuuuuuuge overbet
    -> There are really few bluffs (maybe only AJhh and AJdd ?). So to me it smells you're value overbetting. Being so polarized (sizing), it sounds only boat. You've no straight(*) and it's too polarized for trips (KQ) who could be against AQ/QJ/sometimes Q9.

    Also on turn, you're underbetting. Trying to get called by a wider range of hands who would have lightly semi-bluff donk the flop. Make sens with QJ (boat and nuts on T) or AQ (top trips). Once on river, QJ is no more the nuts, V could have AQ (but never the only AA combos).
    Looks like you're value betting nuts against 2nd or 3rd nuts when top trip rivered top boat and want too much from QJ or preflop loose Q9.


    (*) I don't believe you having KT (and V shouldn't have it either, except if he is aggro; and he might follow a different line and bet sizings)
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Every player acts like he can read your soul when he has some decent hand he has no intention of calling a big river shove with. He probably said, “so sick, you have 99.”
    He would have said that if you turned a draw into a bluff, or patiently played AQ.
    The idea is, he thinks you wouldn’t have been so patient with AQ because you would be worried about being drawn-out on, and maybe you would have 3-bet the turn with KT rather than calling followed by shoving on a paired board river(either you fear the paired board or you don’t and why not protect on the turn to the max if you aren’t afraid, so he thinks). He probably also thinks you would have raised the flop with QJ(but been patient on the turn with the bet-call). He probably thinks you would have bet larger preflop with AA; he probably also thinks you might have checked back the turn with AA.
    Maybe he had QT. Maybe a worse queen. Maybe a draw that paired its ace on the river. Maybe he got there with KT with a flush draw.
    Risking your tournament life in certain stages of a tournament with balanced river shoving might be prohibitively risky with a soft tournament field.
    His statement takes for granted things that may not be true. What is “obvious” to him may not be the case at all.
    :Jd :Tc
    Edit: Opps; oh yeah good point Red; that is a huge over-bet shove, i missed that. That’s hard to balance and prohibitively risky to balance.
    Nevermind. I take it all back. It looks like QQ and only QQ hahaha.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Edit: Opps; oh yeah good point Red; that is a huge over-bet shove, i missed that. That’s hard to balance and prohibitively risky to balance.
    Nevermind. I take it all back. It looks like QQ and only QQ hahaha.

    :)


    Note that I'd not expect Hero to have QQ. It's only 1 combos (against many more trips/boat combos), and if so, there is almost no value hands for V to flop donket and turn C-R with. I think QX v. QX is more probable

    Not knowing Villains cards hinders our guesses as well :)
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ok ok, here is the breakdown for Red:

    2% mangled aces
    3.5% Qx turned into a bluff
    8.2% QJ
    7.8% AQ
    871% quads
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Red wrote: »
    there is almost no value hands for V to flop donket and turn C-R with
    Right, except 99 or JJ(flop defensive donk for JJ) that he hero-folds to QQ. For bluffs, that are value on river, rivered pair of aces after semi-bluffing his flush draw which is only hollywooding his “tank”.
    :Jd :Tc
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,308 ✭✭✭✭
    This does smell like quads or maybe a rare AA. I'm hoping you held some trash and showed!
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Villain has k10s, c'mon. He donks large for a fold then checks his range card. He raises jacks and nines pre more than half of his combos. He's not folding houses with the availability of diamonds or merged KQ, which hero is mimicking.
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Villain has k10s, c'mon. He donks large for a fold then checks his range card. He raises jacks and nines pre more than half of his combos. He's not folding houses with the availability of diamonds or merged KQ, which hero is mimicking.

    Good point; the river bet-size makes more sense for broadway, also. But i think he is finding a fold with JJ and 99 as these are behind AJ/AQ
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    in some weekly tournament? No way, I don't believe it!
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    in some weekly tournament? No way, I don't believe it!
    Hahahahah! Touché!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
    Given your raise was from EP your range should be some what tight for opening, which rules out a lot of KT, JT, QJ type hands.

    Flop QQ9dd
    You face a half pot donk bet 3 ways vs the SB which doesn't really rep a lot of strength, something like weak Qx, A9s, KTs, T9s, etc so you decide to peel.

    Turn QdQh9dJh
    Sb checks
    Hero bets 1\3 pot 5k into about 15k
    SB check raises to 15.5k
    Hero calls 10.5k

    Here you are starting to give your hand strength away. What hands bet small on the turn on. Wet board? I am going to put you precisely on JJ here because boats will bet small on wet boards to give flush draws a good price or hands like T9s a good price which are drawing dead. Once he checks you are not targeting Qx any more on the turn with your small bet. Also a lot of AJs hands check back on this turn card for showdown value. Your turn bet should be larger for value.

    River As (48k)
    Sb bets 25k with 138k+ covers hero behind.
    Hero jams 163k.

    Psb would be 123,000 so Its not a huge over bet, more like 1.2x pot.

    Quads are possible but hard to get called by worse seeing how you block all boats. AA should check back a lot of turns or fold to a x\r on the turn but a. Stubborn AA makes sense a small % of the time. I think AQ would bet more on the turn given how wet the board is but that hand is more likely than AA. Idk your betting style. My read would be JJ but if you shove JJ you would only be snapped by AQ which villain isn't repping. Villain can't really call with anything worse than QJ.

    What did you have?
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭✭
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Probably more JJ-99 then everything else. Since it's live and I assume you limp 99 in EP you had JJ.
  • dnoyeBdnoyeB Red Chipper Posts: 143 ✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Villain has more info since she has 2 cards. Im guessing one of them is not a Q. That being said, such a small preflop raise doesn't look like a big pair to me. 99, TT, AJ-A9s, AQo-ATo, KQs, QJs, JTs.

    Calling a 1/2 pot donk bet from someone representing a hand is either very strong or weak but bluff catching. 99, TT, AQ, A9, KQs, QJs, JTs. Either way I'd say you are not on a draw here.

    The J hits which if you believe he is bluffing should still be in his range. and you smooth call a check raise. At this point you are very strong or very crazy. 99, AQ, KQs, QJs

    The A hits, you don't say villain's stack but he bets 25k and you shove. This strongly suggests you have exactly 99. If you had Q then you'd expect less for him to call a shove and more that he could have 99. So shoving doesn't make sense for anything other than 99 hoping for a Q to call. But he doesn't call which is odd. But he could have a precarious Qx.

    At first glance before I did this thought experiment I put you on a Q. I need to do more thinking. PS I think the shove is the only tell.
  • CononthepokerCononthepoker Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    Thanks for all the informative and insightful replies!

    Its interesting to me that you all put me on a very tight(ish) range for my 2.5x raise pre. I will use this raise size with a large proportion of my range especially in early position in these sorts of tournaments. You get folds out of the really tight players and calls from the donks who "want to see a flop" and you are not risking too much in the process. I also find that most "tight" players will always re-raise you with the top end of your range giving you an easy fold OOP or an easy re-raise when you do have the coconuts :)

    I had :AC: :QS: and villain said "you obviously have AQ" before folding. My shove was a little over-zealous perhaps but I wanted it to look like a missed flush-draw or any Ax hand. Villain made a good read I guess here but it really interested me as to how he can put me exactly on this hand. There are literally only 6 combos of this hand.

    I am hoping for a call from all the smaller boats, maybe a straight and KQ, interestingly we were having a smoke later on the break and got talking and he said he folded AJ, which if true reduces my range down to 4 combos of AQ.

    I did wonder after why he made folding two pair look like such a hero-fold, the best he can hope for is a split pot?
  • zampana1970zampana1970 Red Chipper Posts: 541 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    I skipped everyone else's guesses and I'm thinking ranges (maybe I'm learning, maybe I'm not), which isn't as fun but it likely smarter...

    QQ, 99, AhAs, AcAs, AcAh, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, AdTs, AdTh, AdTc, KQo, QJo

    So I figure you gotta have some bluff hands here(I included the ATo hands and even the KQ combos could be seen as bluffy?) but as I write this I wonder, do you have to have bluffs on this action? What hands does V fold at this point? In other words, is it a cooler for someone and that's just the way it is, so we won't be bluffing here pretty well ever cuz the board smashes ranges?

    Now I'll go back and read everyone else's ideas.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭✭
    Youhou I got it right :)))
    Its interesting to me that you all put me on a very tight(ish) range for my 2.5x raise pre. I will use this raise size with a large proportion of my range especially in early position in these sorts of tournaments.

    I think 2.5x preflop is standard. What gives you a tight-ish range is your position.

    Also, as I wrote it down in the first reply, the hand reading and my AQ guess are based on your postflop line and bet sizing.
  • CononthepokerCononthepoker Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Youhou I got it right :)))
    Its interesting to me that you all put me on a very tight(ish) range for my 2.5x raise pre. I will use this raise size with a large proportion of my range especially in early position in these sorts of tournaments.

    I think 2.5x preflop is standard. What gives you a tight-ish range is your position.

    Also, as I wrote it down in the first reply, the hand reading and my AQ guess are based on your postflop line and bet sizing.

    You got it in one, well done!

    What I am interested in is, is it obvious that I have this hand? The way I see it overbetting the river either smells of extreme strength or of extreme weakness, the bluffs I can have here are only really missed flush draws and if he puts me on this then his call with AJ should be very easy or is this too simplified?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭✭
    @Cononthepoker :
    - Underbet the turn scream it's not a bluff but scratching for value. Maybe a draw (FD?), but then you should have fold after C-R. Continuing after C-R shows a lot of strength (to me).
    - Then you monster overbetting... it should be very polarized, but I don't see any bluff here, as most of them have fold on turn against the C-R.
    - Even if you did continue with some draws, what else than AJdd and AJhh do you have? So you've very few bluffs, and many monster hands (QQ, AQ, QJ, JJ, 99, a weird AA). So you may be pole, but not balanced at all.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,537 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    - Then you monster overbetting... it should be very polarized, but I don't see any bluff here

    This sound weird to me.
  • CononthepokerCononthepoker Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    @Cononthepoker :
    - Underbet the turn scream it's not a bluff but scratching for value. Maybe a draw (FD?), but then you should have fold after C-R. Continuing after C-R shows a lot of strength (to me).
    - Then you monster overbetting... it should be very polarized, but I don't see any bluff here, as most of them have fold on turn against the C-R.
    - Even if you did continue with some draws, what else than AJdd and AJhh do you have? So you've very few bluffs, and many monster hands (QQ, AQ, QJ, JJ, 99, a weird AA). So you may be pole, but not balanced at all.

    Ok thats interesting, do you think if I bet more on the turn, say 2/3 pot around 10k that I still get check raised? If CR is the action I have a more tricky decision though as what check raises the turn to a larger bet size, a straight or QJ or air(probably not)?

    I will be behind a lot of his range and the CR on the turn did make me think the straight just got there but I am too strong to fold. Should I ever be considering a fold here do you think? Even if he has all the K10's that's 16 combos out of a lot of combos.

    I put his calling range pre-flop as:

    TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s which is 222 combos

    He donks the flop with something like:

    TT,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo,JTo,KJs-K9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,8d7d,8d6d,7d6d,7d5d,6d5d - 90 combos

    If he CR the turn with his entire range he has 20 combos of straights which means there are 70 combos that I crush on the turn. Could I ever consider a fold in this situation given the strength of my holding here?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
    Villain was only able to put you on AQ because of the shove and psychologically they always seem to name the nuts.

    For example every time i 3bet they ask if i had AA? Similar situation here only postflop. People start at the nuttiest part of the board and start guessing downward.

    I can basically figured out what he said just by river action and ignore everything else.

    However I didn't put you on AQ because of the turn bet given a wettish board. Thought you were more nutted on the turn.
  • 1337h4x0rlolz1337h4x0rlolz Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    well, i think villains hand is easier to read than yours, so i give villain Qx or PP, and if villain has Qx then you have JJ if villain has PP then you have AQ i think
  • dnoyeBdnoyeB Red Chipper Posts: 143 ✭✭
    ...I am hoping for a call from all the smaller boats, maybe a straight and KQ, interestingly we were having a smoke later on the break and got talking and he said he folded AJ, which if true reduces my range down to 4 combos of AQ.
    :Ad :Jd ?

  • CononthepokerCononthepoker Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    dnoyeB wrote: »
    ...I am hoping for a call from all the smaller boats, maybe a straight and KQ, interestingly we were having a smoke later on the break and got talking and he said he folded AJ, which if true reduces my range down to 4 combos of AQ.
    :Ad :Jd ?

    He didn't name the suits but I assume so yes...

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