AK in the SB Squeeze play

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
villain 27/20/9
I think villain's range preflop is 22-99, SCs 65s+ and 1 gappers down to 75s

25NL 5 handed

UTG opens .75
CO Villain ($55.15) calls .75
BTN folds
SB hero ($25.42) :Ad:Kh raises to $3.25
BB folds
UTG folds
CO calls $2.50

Flop ($7.50) :6h:Js:5s
Here I don't have much equity, but given his preflop range I think we can bet here profitably and expect a lot of folds. Although his fold to cbet in a 3 bet pot is only 25% (2/8).

SB hero ($22.27) bets $3.75
CO villain ($51.90) calls $3.75

Turn ($15) :6h:Js:5s:Qd
Hero bets $6.75
Villian ?

Here I thought this was a good card for my range as I can have AQ, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, all for value, then my bluffs .... can't think of many maybe AJs and AK thats about it given this texture. Not really squeezing any small SCs like 87s. I think my bet despite being less than half pot looks really strong with just $11 behind. I wanted to bet this sizing which looks like value and get 77-99 to fold maybe some random J10s hand.

Comments

  • CubanBCubanB Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    This isn't a great flop for your specific hand I don't think it's bad for your overall preflop 3bet range, so I don't hate the c-bet in a vacuum assuming you're ranging Villain properly. You've set a price where you should be able to generate some autoprofit against an ABC opponent, but this sizing could look a bit suspect to an observant opponent unless you'd also <half-pot your sets and overpairs here, so just something to be mindful of.

    8 spots isn't a big sample size, but this specific Villain's 3bet pot stickyness might impact how often we want to c-bet here, though. Do we have any idea what he has been calling 3bet pot c-bets with? How does he react to turn barrels? Assuming we can get him to ditch at least his weak pairs on the turn, I like the aggression but we need to be honest in assessing whether or not we have any fold equity. If we don't have any, we lack the pot equity to be aggressive.

    Final note would be that I'm not sure about Villain's preflop calling ranges you've assigned. I think if he's calling with 65s/75s, he's there is a very good chance he is also calling with his suited broadways, suited aces....and perhaps even TT-QQ.



  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    CubanB wrote: »
    This isn't a great flop for your specific hand I don't think it's bad for your overall preflop 3bet range, so I don't hate the c-bet in a vacuum assuming you're ranging Villain properly. You've set a price where you should be able to generate some autoprofit against an ABC opponent, but this sizing could look a bit suspect to an observant opponent unless you'd also <half-pot your sets and overpairs here, so just something to be mindful of.

    8 spots isn't a big sample size, but this specific Villain's 3bet pot stickyness might impact how often we want to c-bet here, though. Do we have any idea what he has been calling 3bet pot c-bets with? How does he react to turn barrels? Assuming we can get him to ditch at least his weak pairs on the turn, I like the aggression but we need to be honest in assessing whether or not we have any fold equity. If we don't have any, we lack the pot equity to be aggressive.

    Final note would be that I'm not sure about Villain's preflop calling ranges you've assigned. I think if he's calling with 65s/75s, he's there is a very good chance he is also calling with his suited broadways, suited aces....and perhaps even TT-QQ.



    For his ranges I was using pt4 auto notes. Vs rfi his range is pretty wide compared to a normal tag.

    TT is possible but he appeared to 3 bet JJ+ A10s+, AQ+, and some A10o and AJo quite often. Maybe he could flat those being utg raised. My final hand against this player which got to showddown was i raised utg and he 3bet K9s. He is usually a lot of Axs Kxs for blocker and equity potential in 3 bet pots.

    I struggle to find a good strategy vs him as he seems to bluff a lot and does not appear to be bluffed very easily calling down as wide as 3rd pair. Which means I basically need to make hands vs him and play them aggressively.

    I can also flat some stronger hands preflop instead of 3 betting but if he is only folding to 53% of 3bets I want to get as much value in early as possible.
  • SliverOverlordSliverOverlord Red Chipper Posts: 323 ✭✭✭
    I'm just going to focus on your turn decision to continue bluffing. It seems like from villains line he likely with be weighed toward a one pair hand, but is kind of a station, so you should be toning down your bluff frequency somewhat. If your looking for some kind of balance, you have about 30 combos of value and 16 of bluffs, if you only bluff AK, and Check back with your pairs. ATs give you another 4, but still you're already under bluffing in this spot, and your bluff range is very easy to play against since the you don't really have much play ability unless the river is Paint or a spade. If you want to tone down the bluffs because of his ability to be a station, then I like slowing down with the AK without a spade. Depending on how polarized you think he bets, you can potentially actualize your 20%ish equity vs his 77-TT and Jx when they play this turn card honestly, and potentially call a sizable turn bet by him, assuming you have about 20% equity vs his made range and trust your ability to bluff catch correctly on blank rivers.
  • Fernando TFernando T Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    The bord is very good for villain range.... don't think he will fold to any river bet. If you are looking for food equity perhaps should jam in the turn
  • Matthew RMatthew R Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    When you c-bet the flop what is your plan to continue?

    My prior is not to Cbet.

    1. This flop is much better for his range
    2. Its very wet with flush, common straight and 2 pairs all transparent. All of which are way less probable for you than him.
    3. Some of your value redraws, leave you dead.
    4. It is going to be hard to get a fold without a triple barrel combined with a miss on his end.

    I’m open to the idea that I’m wrong but this seems like a spot I’d rather check, fold or maybe occasionally check call. Since they could check behind on the turn and you can reevaluate on the river.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    Good with whole thing up to turn.

    Normally I would bet 2/3 pot to pot on this card but because that will leave you with an awkward river size, bet all in on turn. Good card for your range plus you are still uncapped.

    I doubt he's really ready to call 3rd pair in a 3bet pot vs an uncapped opponent for 100bb. Jacks will fold sometimes, draws will fold sometimes, AK will win at showdown sometimes

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fernando T wrote: »
    The bord is very good for villain range.... don't think he will fold to any river bet. If you are looking for food equity perhaps should jam in the turn
    Matthew R wrote: »
    When you c-bet the flop what is your plan to continue?

    My prior is not to Cbet.

    1. This flop is much better for his range
    2. Its very wet with flush, common straight and 2 pairs all transparent. All of which are way less probable for you than him.
    3. Some of your value redraws, leave you dead.
    4. It is going to be hard to get a fold without a triple barrel combined with a miss on his end.

    I’m open to the idea that I’m wrong but this seems like a spot I’d rather check, fold or maybe occasionally check call. Since they could check behind on the turn and you can reevaluate on the river.

    @Mathew R & @Fernando T

    Can you please explain how this board is better for him? Keep in mind this is a squeezed pot for 13bb, not a 2-bet call situation.

    2) Straight draws and flush draws are possible, but they are not made hands. Also there is only 2 combos of 2 pairs which is unlikely in a squeezed pot.

    3) What redraws leave me dead?

    4) What is your continue range here when I squeeze preflop and barrel on 65JQss? You can't still love AJ, JT, FD, 77-99, etc right? Are you willing to stack off with 2nd pair?

    I really dont see how this board is better for him than me. Besides obvious 55 or 66 for lower sets, there are not many hands that he can have that are made.

    Lets look at villains best hands
    AsQs, KsQs, QJs, 55, 66,
    Other hands
    87suited, J10s, KJs, AJs, 77,88,99,

    Hero's range
    JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQs, AKs, ATs,

    I could also expand this range to a couple combos of AKo and some other suited broadways, but in general the above range would be consistent with squeeze play hands. AJ- im more likely to check call than go for thin value on the turn.
  • Fernando TFernando T Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    Well, you said: " I think villain's range preflop is 22-99, SCs 65s+ and 1 gappers down to 75s" By the priciple that hand reading is linear, you can´t put another hands in his hand just becous is a 3-bet pot. But whats hands would he called flat and then call again when you sqeezed. In this scenario i think the bord (flp and turn ) is great for him... and by the stas of him that you have he really like to calll a lit bit loose 3-bet... So, he may have tons of flushdraws, wich he will not fold as well two pairs ( :Qc:JC: / :QH::JH: ) gun shoots and oesd
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fernando T wrote: »
    Well, you said: " I think villain's range preflop is 22-99, SCs 65s+ and 1 gappers down to 75s" By the priciple that hand reading is linear, you can´t put another hands in his hand just becous is a 3-bet pot. But whats hands would he called flat and then call again when you sqeezed. In this scenario i think the bord (flp and turn ) is great for him... and by the stas of him that you have he really like to calll a lit bit loose 3-bet... So, he may have tons of flushdraws, wich he will not fold as well two pairs ( :Qc:JC: / :QH::JH: ) gun shoots and oesd

    Great for villains draws, some draws but there are not a ton. I would have to assume he is folding the lower portion of his range including the 1 gappers. There are more combos he will fold on the turn then call or shove. Most naked flush draws should call or fold. Really shouldn't jam with low FE im leaving in my stack.
  • Fernando TFernando T Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Great for villains draws, some draws but there are not a ton. I would have to assume he is folding the lower portion of his range including the 1 gappers. There are more combos he will fold on the turn then call or shove. Most naked flush draws should call or fold. Really shouldn't jam with low FE im leaving in my stack.

    That I have to agree

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