Raise,Fold, or Call the River

Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
$1/$2 w/ $4 Straddle


EP calls $4, Hero iso in MP $16 with :Ks:Js folds to straddle who calls $12 and limper gets out of the way. Villain is a TAG 2/5 reg.

Flop ($39) :As:Td:9d
Villain checks and with a ton of good turn cards out there Hero bets $20. Villain calls.

Turn ($79) :6h
Check. Check. One of the biggest things i feel myself struggling with is when to double barrel in heads up pots. I always know the good cards to barrel but seem to get confused on the bad cards. Is this a good check back?

River($79) :Kc
Villain leads $35. Ace or missed diamonds right? Feel like 78 would bet somewhat larger and I have a blocker to the nuts. All options go through my head and call seems like the worst play but idk. What do you guys think the move is?
I tank for about 20 seconds and decide to make a move I don't make too often and raise to $100. Villain folds after about ten seconds and didn't even bother looking at the King I showed which makes me think he didn't have much.

Comments

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    What were the stack sizes?
  • Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    I had about $375 and he had me covered
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,492 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't like your turn check. I think it turns your hand way to much face up.
    - What do you rep for value by stabbing the flop? AX, 2P (AT/T9). If so, why would such holding check the turn? :6H: is rather a brick - it completes only 78, out of many combos Villain could check-float the flop with. But TP/2P have to face many bad cards, to complete either straight draws or FD. We want to charge them before the river, before they either complete (we are dead) or brick (they won't pay us).
    So we want rather bet with them.

    - And same with draws: if an obvious draw card comes, Villain may not pay us anymore. And we still like folds a lot.
    So we want rather bet with them as well.

    For that, I don't like your turn line...

    **
    I don't like the call on river. I think this time you got lucky and Villain had busted :DIAMOND: draw who bet into your weak turn check, but otherwise, I think there are too many combos who beat us now.
    In fact, you hold the worst KX - Villain could hold many better K (depends on his preflop passivity: he has KQo too?). In fact KJ could be the worst K possible, as KQ, KT and K9 are beating us now. And there are still some bad AX who could follow this line. Plus now QJ completed.
    I think you need a "kinky" Villain, who would bet a lot of busted FD and MP (QTo or for ex.) for a call to be profitable. Which doesn't sound like him with an EP limp ?

    I encourage you to do some homework and present us:
    - how many and which combos does Villain hold on River ?
    - out of them: how many and which combos does he bet for value ? (=beating at least KJ)
    - out of them: how many and which combos does he bet for bluff ? (=always lose to KJ)
    - out of them: how many and which combos does he checks ?

    Compare the ratio bet-value/bet-bluff (~ = win %) to your pot odds. Now @Ryan U : Is it a +EV call ?
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    I wouldn't say that there are a ton of good turn cards for you. Any K, Q, J, 8, 7, 6, and any diamond complete either a draw or a natural two pair combination. So, we're really hoping to see a 5 or below. However, the 6 is probably one of the better cards for as it only helps a few combos of 87s and A6s. So, I'd be looking to barrel here and probably follow through on some rivers.

    On the river, I think raising is a fine play depending on V's betting range. If they are the type of player to bet with a K or an A here, then raising will put some pressure on those hands. We aren't going to let them get an easy showdown with A5 or KQ!

    Regarding V's bet sizing on the river--I wouldn't say that a small bet here necessarily relates to a weaker hand. When you check the turn, your range is pretty capped and therefore V doesn't need to bet very large on the river when going for value. However, some players will use a sizing that corresponds to their hand strength, so perhaps this is one of those players.






  • Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    @Red I did not end up calling the river and instead turned my pair into a bluff which might change your advice a little bit. Definitely agree that a call is no good here.
  • Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    @bigburge10 Well that makes sense. Knowing when to barrel is definitely a soft spot in my game. In the moment I was looking to bet any turn that gave me a flush or straight draw but I should also be barreling on blanks.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,492 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ryan U wrote: »
    @Red I did not end up calling the river and instead turned my pair into a bluff which might change your advice a little bit. Definitely agree that a call is no good here.

    @Ryan U My exercise proposition still holds and is a good way to improve :)

    You can then extend it to "from the combos V bets, how many / which ones does he call a raise? How many / which ones does he fold?".
    Because actually you're turning your bluff catcher into a bluff. You need to know - to make an educated guess - with what Villain is betting on River, and out of them, how often he is folding.
    You need him to fold enough to beat your BE bluff %. Does he fold enough of the times for your to bluff +EV ?
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    I think your turn line is fine, there are merits in both betting and checking behind. The V called from the straddle, his range is extremely wide pre. On the flop when he called, he could have numerous hands including a lot of draws and single pair hands. Checking the turn keeps his range wide so you can call river on missed draws, KJ also has SDV here. Betting have merits too, where it would charge his draws and maybe fold out some second pair type of hands, and you can give up on the river if he calls. Both lines are okay, just make sure you are doing it for the right reason and have the correct river plan.

    Now your river line was terrible, this spot was a clear call, as calling is by far the best option out of the 3. You are getting 3:1 on a call, which only needs to be good 25% of the time. Whenever you raise or bet, you wanna ask yourself, are better hands folding, or are worse hands calling? I think in this case your answer is no for both questions. Your raise might get some weak Ax to fold, but I doubt the V is betting weak Ax for value. He is either betting a small pair or busted draws as a bluff, which will fold to your raise, or betting 2p+ for value, which will not fold to your raise and may reraise you. What you have here is a game theory disaster, where no better hands are folding, and no worse hands are calling. If you didn’t hit the K on the river and ended up with K high, then the raise was more justifiable because it’ll fold out his bluffs that are beating you, such as small Pocket pairs.

    Whenever you turn your hand into a bluff, ask yourself, what better hands are likely to fold? When you raised the river here, what hands are you hoping to get folds from?
  • Fernando TFernando T Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    I don´t like the turn check, I think you should double barrel. When you don´t bet in the river you alowd villain to bluff. Lead preflop, c-bet flop and check the turn alweys seens the kind of play of those who play fit and fold. Like the raise on the river. If i just have FD missed I would fold if check the turn
  • Ryan URyan U Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    @Yanming Z I guess I might've put myself in the villain's shoes when I decided to raise as I would bet-fold any ace for thin value given the dynamic at these stakes. I never see players in these games raise the river as a bluff. That being said, do you think my hand is too strong to turn into a bluff? Also this was the only player at the table I would take this line against as I know he's a thinking player.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 342 ✭✭✭
    As others have said, I support a barrel on the turn as well. You may get him off Ax or Tx, and if you don't bet here your line looks super weak.

    As played, I'm not sure I'm crazy about the raise on the end. You're only really repping KK and QJ. If you're really certain he has some weak Ax and will fold to a raise, I guess it's okay, but otherwise I would just make this a call.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Honestly, this looks like a damn solid line to me: It reps a strong-as-all-hell hand. OP could have flopped a set and not wanted to chase out V or might want to induce V to bet into him on the river. Or OP himself could have, say, QJ, and made the standard c-bet to try to generate a fold or to get two free cards -- and then hit the river.

    We aren't told much about V. If V is the type of player to hand-read, then V could easily have the thought process above. If V is the type of player to put money in loosely betting on aggression and fold equity, then V would snap-fold.

    Standing back, this looks like a VERY strong hand that OP is repping, whether he flopped it or got there on the river.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    One more thing: I would NEVER have shown the king. Never. That only puts KK in your repped hand (AK probably would have double-barreled), and why would anyone with KK show one? That kills the image of strength that you are trying to rep here.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Ryan U - I think your instincts were correct in this hand... and like most of what you did.

    I'm going to disagree with @Red here and agree with @Yanming Z - but much of it is going to depend on our V...

    here's why:
    we raised pre and got called by the straddle
    I agree that he's most likely wide here... a player who's straddle from oop is typically looking to "gamble" (unless it's a mandatory straddle) - so when he calls, he's probably defending his straddle with most of his holding. (so I'm going to assume that V is calling light and only raising big his strongest holdings)

    okay, so we raised pre - showing strength and then c-bet an Ace-high flop.
    we've got range advantage here - meaning we should have more big aces in our range than V would. So I like a c-bet.
    Being that this is a wet board - I would have preferred a larger c-bet size.. something in the neighborhood of 30-35.
    As played, we don't look very strong with our c-bet.

    Red asks:
    - What do you rep for value by stabbing the flop?

    And I would say we've got a lot of hands here that we could easily bet the flop in order to deny equity. We could have KK-JJ, QJ, :Kd:Xd, :Qd:Xd, wheel Aces as well as KQ & KJ. Many of these I would put in my "one & done" column because if V calls, he should be doing so with a good Ace the majority of the time.

    What other hands should V have if not an A?
    Probably drawing hands... most likely flush draws.... although he could have J8 & QJ in his range as well. And maybe med-to-small pps.

    So we bet and V calls.
    Since our c-bet was so small, he's probably continuing with a large portion of his range.
    Which is why I don't like the sizing. (Your bet sizing doesn't force V to fold much so we get little information about what he's holding or how committed he is to his holdings.)

    On the turn - we don't improve. And essentially nothing changes.
    It's not a "scare card" nor a card that should improve our range.
    this is why I like the check/back.

    this is the "power of position"
    We've c-bet to narrow our opponents' range and when V responds with a call... we're able to shift into realizing our equity. (it's not much but it's still there... and because it's not much - I wouldn't be too "worried" about protecting such paltry equity)
    Making a bet on the turn is mostly spew imo. Since the board hasn't changed, V's response shouldn't change either. A turn bet should be met with a turn call 95% of the time. What would a turn bet accomplish? IMO, nothing.

    Our c-bet with position allowed us to get 2 streets for the price of one!
    We should take it.
    That's good poker.

    On the river, V makes a small river bet.
    Yeah, QJ gets there, KT & K9 get there... but I'm not sure we really need to be worried about these hands. V is just as likely to have JT, J9, 98, T8, QT and Q9 as he is to have the stronger holdings.
    Which is why I don't care for your "bluff" raise.
    What are we expecting to fold here (that we lose to)?
    Most Aces will call, all 2-pair+ will call, all straights will raise.

    I like your river sizing for value & bluff... but think it's unnecessary.
    We've improved but still don't beat an Ace...
    We should make a crying call but expect to be good more than 50% of the time.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Ryan U wrote: »
    @Yanming Z I guess I might've put myself in the villain's shoes when I decided to raise as I would bet-fold any ace for thin value given the dynamic at these stakes. I never see players in these games raise the river as a bluff. That being said, do you think my hand is too strong to turn into a bluff? Also this was the only player at the table I would take this line against as I know he's a thinking player.

    If you put yourself in the V's shoes, and the V is a thinking player, he would not have bet a weak Ax here for value. Because he showed no strength the whole way, so he's opponent could easily do exactly what you did to put him in a tough spot with weak Ax. If he bets what worse is he hoping to get called by? Maybe specifically a K that hit on the river and that was it. Check call with Ax is standard here, unless the V has seen you call light.

    Other than there are only very thin range of better hands that's gonna fold to the raise as I mention in previous post, your other problem is the sizing. Your opponent is calling $65 to win $200, even Ax here, your only target, might cry call it off with this price.

    One merit of raising here that I can think of is to balance if your river raising range, work some mediocre hands into the range to protect your strong hands.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    I like your river sizing for value & bluff... but think it's unnecessary.
    We've improved but still don't beat an Ace...
    I expected some more fight from you Kagey:) Who says we have to beat an Ace? We probably make a lot of those fold, along with some K's that we lose to or chop with. All of this will depend on V, but how many hands are they betting on this river that we will beat at showdown?




  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »

    Now your river line was terrible, this spot was a clear call,
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    If you put yourself in the V's shoes, and the V is a thinking player, he would not have bet a weak Ax here for value.

    The one-two punch of absolute opinions and the assumption of what constitutes a good player is not a winning one.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    bigburge10 wrote: »
    I expected some more fight from you Kagey:) Who says we have to beat an Ace? We probably make a lot of those fold, along with some K's that we lose to or chop with. All of this will depend on V, but how many hands are they betting on this river that we will beat at showdown?
    I'm not saying we have to beat an Ace. I'm just saying that V has a lot of middling Aces in his range that would most likely be betting river.

    I don't think we become very profitable as players when we try to force Villains to fold the top of their range. Siedman talks about the concept of "very best fold."
    Here, I don't think Ax would be a VBF to a river raise - esp. not to the size we made.
    And we're definitely not getting two-pair or better to fold.

    what hands are we beating that V is betting on the river?
    a lot, imo!
    we played our hand weakly (weak c-bet and check on the turn) which would give V reasons to think his TX, 9X and even 6X hands were good. He might also bet 77 or 88 here thinking we totally whiffed the board. And then, he's got :Qd:Xd and :Jd:Xd hands that missed the flush or even crappy :Kd:Xd hands that we beat.
    Unfortunately, none of those holdings can tolerate a river raise.

    So IMO our river raise guarantees us that we'll only get called by hands that beat us.... (way ahead/way behind) so that's why I see it as less than optimal. But calling here is fine... and standard.

    there are times to "fight" for pots... but when the flop brings us a top pair that won't change... battling for the pot (without top pair) often becomes counter-productive. We'd have to be very deep stacked to get an Ace to fold by the river... and we'd be taking all the risks...
    In low limit games where most opponents are value-heavy, trying to rep a hand that they can't imagine us having typically becomes spew.
    I don't think AX and KX hands fold to our river bet. But I might be wrong.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Yanming Z wrote: »

    Now your river line was terrible, this spot was a clear call,
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    If you put yourself in the V's shoes, and the V is a thinking player, he would not have bet a weak Ax here for value.

    The one-two punch of absolute opinions and the assumption of what constitutes a good player is not a winning one.

    GTO speaking, calling is the best option, but it doesn’t mean you should call every time, just mean you so do it the majority of the time. It’s never optimal to do some thing 100% of the time in poker. If you always fold, you’ll be too easily bluffed, if you always call, your opponents has no incentive to bluff you, if you only raise the nuts, your opponent can fold against you optimally.

    That being said, it’s important to understand “why” you are doing something. The reason for raising here is not to blow opponent off a better hand, because it just won’t happen over 50% of the time for betting 100 into a pot of 105 profitable. The correct reason is to protect your nuts range, so your opponent can’t fold against you optimally, so that even if your bet is called by a better more than 50% of the time, it can still be a profitable play in the long run. But before you can identify the correct reason to go against GTO, it’s correct to call 100% of the time here.

    Same with making assumptions about your opponents, if your opponent takes a line majority of the time, it’s correct to simplify and assume he does it 100% of the time and react accordingly. A simple example is if your opponent goes all in with the nuts 80% of the time and with air 20% of the time, your correct action according to GTO is to fold 100% of the time unless you are getting better than 4:1 pot odds. If you are to deviate from this, again, make sure you are doing it for the correct reason.


  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    kagey wrote: »
    what hands are we beating that V is betting on the river?
    a lot, imo!
    we played our hand weakly (weak c-bet and check on the turn) which would give V reasons to think his TX, 9X and even 6X hands were good. He might also bet 77 or 88 here thinking we totally whiffed the board. And then, he's got :Qd:Xd and :Jd:Xd hands that missed the flush or even crappy :Kd:Xd hands that we beat.
    Unfortunately, none of those holdings can tolerate a river raise.
    Fair enough. Although, given that OP played the hand weakly, should this give V a reason to bet Tx or 9x? Surely, worse hands aren't calling, and not many better hands are folding--maybe JJ or QQ? However, if V does have hands like 6x, 77, or 88, those can certainly bet and get hands like 9, T, JJ, or QQ to fold out.

    You did point out something, and I must admit, I lost sight of, is OP's river raise sizing and the odds it offers V. V can defend more often, but at these stakes, most river raises look super strong. So, maybe even though the sizing may not be ideal in terms of the odds it offers V, it may be a very good sizing in terms of the amount of aggressive dead money spent when combined with how strong a river raise typically is at 1/2. Who knows?

    One action that seems to help OP is his turn check and the river card. Certainly, he's capped once he checks the turn. However, this particular river card allows him to become uncapped if he chooses. I'm not sure if he raises all combos of QJ preflop, but he can quickly be able to represent 15 combos of strong hands on this river card (QJ and KK). (Not sure if he would barrel QJ on the turn or not)

    Pretty interesting spot! I'm still in the raise camp--I just love finding places to turn up the heat a little bit, even when I may have some showdown value. Then again, I just don't like showing down:)


  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    I get @kagey's argument, and I can't entirely disagree with him; they make a lot of sense. I do ALSO see the merit in the raise, and I'd like to flesh out more of that.

    IMO, V isn't betting here with, say, QQ or K5d. V is much more likely to check-call with those. Also, given V's bet-sizing, I'm partially discounting nutted hands. That leaves V's most likely reasons to bet as (1) missed and trying to steal the pot; or (2) trying to get some value from a hand like Ax which is likely ahead.

    If (1), then V absolutely folds to a river raise (duh). If (2), then V probably folds, as well. Many Vs would bet small here precisely because they DON'T want to face a river bet and precisely because the river raise is so improbable. Thus, they would get value from the Ax hand and also set the river price -- a bet from OP were V to check would likely be higher than what V led out for.

    So, V underbets the pot for the reasons above and then faces the dreaded raise. Then, V is likely becoming more and more sure that his Ax isn't good -- and convincing himself that he was wise to bet-fold rather than check-call because it cost him less money.

    Again and as always, this is V dependent. And, yeah, V will find a call some of the time and/or show up with a huge hand some of the time. But, I think that there is a VERY small range of hands with which V leads out that OP beats. So, a raise here is the only way to beat those Ax hands that comprise a lot of V's river leads. Given the relatively small raise and the amount in the pot, I see it is an unexpected and, therefore, profitable play -- used sporadically.
  • Yanming ZYanming Z Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    I get @kagey's argument, and I can't entirely disagree with him; they make a lot of sense. I do ALSO see the merit in the raise, and I'd like to flesh out more of that.

    IMO, V isn't betting here with, say, QQ or K5d. V is much more likely to check-call with those. Also, given V's bet-sizing, I'm partially discounting nutted hands. That leaves V's most likely reasons to bet as (1) missed and trying to steal the pot; or (2) trying to get some value from a hand like Ax which is likely ahead.

    If (1), then V absolutely folds to a river raise (duh). If (2), then V probably folds, as well. Many Vs would bet small here precisely because they DON'T want to face a river bet and precisely because the river raise is so improbable. Thus, they would get value from the Ax hand and also set the river price -- a bet from OP were V to check would likely be higher than what V led out for.

    So, V underbets the pot for the reasons above and then faces the dreaded raise. Then, V is likely becoming more and more sure that his Ax isn't good -- and convincing himself that he was wise to bet-fold rather than check-call because it cost him less money.

    Again and as always, this is V dependent. And, yeah, V will find a call some of the time and/or show up with a huge hand some of the time. But, I think that there is a VERY small range of hands with which V leads out that OP beats. So, a raise here is the only way to beat those Ax hands that comprise a lot of V's river leads. Given the relatively small raise and the amount in the pot, I see it is an unexpected and, therefore, profitable play -- used sporadically.

    When you were analyzing V’s value range, why did you assume he is only betting Ax? Smaller bet size doesn’t mean weakness, if anything bigger sizes are more likely to represent weakness than smaller sizes. Hero checked the turn, so from the V’s POV it’s hard for H to have an Ace, so any large bet might blow H off his hand.

    Now let’s look at the raise size. Let’s assume V turned up his hand and showed you Ax so you don’t have to worry about 2p, sets, straights. H is betting 100 into 105, so he needs V to fold 50% of the time to be profitable. From V’s POV, he’s calling 65 to win 205, so the call only needs to be right 24% of the time. Now ask yourself, even if you are sure V has Ax, does he fold enough for this raise to be profitable? My gut feeling is telling me no. If we add all the other value hands that V could have that definitely won’t fold to this raise, then we are looking at a massively negative EV play.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Yanming Z wrote: »
    When you were analyzing V’s value range, why did you assume he is only betting Ax?

    I think that you misread my post. I never assumed that V is only betting Ax. I wrote that I consider V's most likely holdings to be a missed draw or Ax. I did not discount the hands that you mentioned, but I consider them less likely than the two that I noted. Here's what I wrote:

    "IMO, V isn't betting here with, say, QQ or K5d. V is much more likely to check-call with those. Also, given V's bet-sizing, I'm partially discounting nutted hands. That leaves V's most likely reasons to bet as (1) missed and trying to steal the pot; or (2) trying to get some value from a hand like Ax which is likely ahead."
  • Jónas SJónas S Red Chipper Posts: 202 ✭✭✭
    You should be value betting and betting your range vs. their range until someone gives you a reason not to.

    It's possible that villain has a strong holding but they should be denying you equity so he's going to be raising the flop for protection, the majority of the time so when the turn improves your hand and misses villain's range (we assume he's drawing the majority of the times here..) we charge him another barrel so he doesn't get to see the river for free. If the board is static there's no need to bloat the pot without a decent holding when there are so few draw hands in his range but that's different on this dynamic board.

    Villain acts weak pre-flop, on the flop and on the turn -- he probably doesn't have much on the river. I'd say you should either call or make a raise that his range can call. He either has a slow-played monster, a missed draw or a weak pair. The monster is always going to re-raise your raise so you can usually just fold when that happens. The majority of the time villain has a missed draw or a weak pair in this case that can call a half-2/3 pot bet. It's okay to bluff if you're trying to bluff your opponent off an ace if you think he is capable of making that lay-down but you don't want him to fold out all the weaker holdings that you beat and could call a smaller bet.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Jónas S wrote: »
    It's okay to bluff if you're trying to bluff your opponent off an ace if you think he is capable of making that lay-down but you don't want him to fold out all the weaker holdings that you beat and could call a smaller bet.
    Help me clarify this a little bit, I'm probably just confusing myself:)

    If we're choosing to raise in hopes of V folding out an Ace, wouldn't all of V's weaker holdings that we beat, also fold? I'm probably just interpreting your statement incorrectly, but it seems to imply that we can have it both ways: we can make A's fold and still find calls from hands we beat.

    For me, if I decide to raise this river, it definitely isn't for value. I'm not exactly interested in being called by worse, I'm just trying to make a better or equal hand fold and build some image.

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