What is the best move in this situation?

Ben WBen W Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
edited November 2017 in Live Poker Hands
Originally buy-in for 300 at a 1/3 NL table. Play my way to 600. Playstyle is nitty TAG.

I am on the button with :As:Ks

EP is calling station LAG, cutoff is TAG. EP has 600, cutoff has 425 in stack size.

EP limps, cutoff raises to 15. I reraise to 40. Everyone else folds. Is this the right play and bet amount?

EP calls, cutoff calls.

Flop comes :JH::8d:3S:

EP checks, cutoff checks, I check. Is checking here fine? I check because I knew EP was a calling station and I was not secure with a big bet right there with nothing. Is this the wrong thinking?

Turn is :Ts

EP checks, cutoff bets 50. I raise cutoff to 150. I have a gutshot and nut flush draw. Is the raise to 150 here good play as far as bet sizing or should I have shoved my 550 in right then and there?

EP calls the 150, cutoff shoves 250 more on top of the 150. By this time I am surprised EP flatted my raise. I know I am behind the shove from the cutoff. Is anyone here able to do the math or pot odds properly to calculate this situation?? Anyway I end up calling.

EP shoves for total 550, I auto call.

River is :9s

EP shows :Qs:5s

Cutoff shows :Js:Jd

I show :As:Ks

I win the pot for over 1600 at the 1/3 table. I am just wondering if my lines of play and bet sizing were fine.

Thanks.



Comments

  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    For what it's worth, our EP calling station LAG fish is the reason this game isn't dead!
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    Player profiles are incorrect...like @bigburge10 said. $15 open, $40 is giving them really good odds to call, and this could become a calling waterfall, especially at stack sizes. What is the "goal" or "point" of your bet. Are you hoping for folds? Are you trying to get calls and go MW? How does AK play heads up? MW? What is your objective for this hand? Think about "how do I want to play this hand, with my position, vs these stack sizes. River backwards. Not "I have AKs lol 3-bet!".

    Onto the flop, check is fine. Turn cards can only stand to improve you. I'd rather not barrel relentless MW with overs, as so many 3-bets include cards like AK AQ and KQ, and if you barrel all your overs in this situation, you end up with way too many bluffs on a board that favors your opponents calling and flatting range.


    The turn...I'd actually just call here. Listen, the money starting piling in, and you could be in trouble. Yeah, you picked up a ton of equity, but not enough equity vs hands that want to start smashing money in the center. Look at your equity vs like hands that V's want to lead this board on, or that money can start pilling in on. Your not in great shape, and your FE isn't there. On the river, your still gonna get value for the sets (maybe you don't stack him, OK), your probably gonna stack MP, and may even stack EP.

    So all-in-all, you need to think about what your purpose and sizing on the PFR is, flop is fine, turn questionable, neato river. It's nice to run good.

  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    The best move is 3bet bigger on flop and just flat the turn. In addition to the sets bigburger10 mentioned, also j10, KQ , QQ, other spade draws... so on the surface it seems you have 18outs at best. But need to discount some as your A might or K would complete other straights. J or 8 of spades makes full houses that can beat your flush. If one of them has a Q that's fewer straight outs, and if either on flush draw that's fewer flush outs. So I am not counting A or K as outs. Now down to 12. Discounting at least 2 more maybe 3 for spades and reverse odds on if they make a boat over my flush. Now 10 outs.
    Calling the turn bet now is breakevenish. Raising turn is suicidal against their ranges.
    As the hand played you got lucky and hit one of your 7 actual clean outs
  • Ben WBen W Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    edited November 2017
    Thanks guys, I am reading all of your comments and learning. I am new here obviously lol. While I win at 1/3 games, I shy away from edgy spots that may have high variance. I definitely do not think at your guy's level. I hope to learn that way of thinking. Just calling the turn bet makes a lot of sense.

    Octavian I, if I c-bet flop and get raised... most likely by the JJ, what would you do? Personally I would fold, but would you call and see the turn?
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    So watch @SplitSuit 's video on AK, or do some equity simulations with flopzilla or equilab and you'll see that this hand A. Performs great pre-flop, as well as when there are 5 cards but B. Doesn't do so hot on a lot of flops because it misses pretty often. This is why many bad players at the tables say "I hate AK! It always misses! And I just raise so big pre-flop and this miss!". This hand plays best in isolation, and the reason for that is because not on when it does hit the flop does it rate to often have 3 streets of value, but for the fact that when you are heads up, it's very hard for you opponent to hit a hand. This is why people like to size 3-bets with AK larger, your OK with taking down the pot right now, but it also doesn't mind seeing flops.


    When this flop comes, I say DONT C-bet. This is a MW pot, and BD FD's and over cards potentially to come are a real thing, but you 3-bet and missed this board MW. It's too likely someone has a piece of this board, and not only is it tragic if you bet, get raised and then have to forfeit your equity, but a lot of times your gonna get a bricked turn, and then feel like you've handcuffed yourself to running a triple barrel. Can you get the folds you need MW with this triple barrel? In my experience of trying to brute force triple barrels sometimes and burning a lot of money in the process...no sir, you'll get them sometimes, not enough to be profitable. Take the free card. Or run the math on what % of of folds you need, and inverse sizing you think will do the job, and make the choice for yourself. Another good exercise here is think: If you don't wanna c-bet with this hand, which of your 3-bet hands would you C-bet with? What hands should you check? And why.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    Let’s talk about 3betting ranges, which are usually tight on a 1-3 table. If you 3bet with QQ-AA, you would Cbet this board for value. By checking, you kind of tell the world you have AK or maybe JJ.

    One other point - if player is a truly fishy calling station, the CBet might actually be for value (meaning his overall calling range is worse than AK).
  • Ben WBen W Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Hey guys, I am still in the midst of learning the terms and abbreviations. What does MW mean?

    @
    taglius wrote: »
    Let’s talk about 3betting ranges, which are usually tight on a 1-3 table. If you 3bet with QQ-AA, you would Cbet this board for value. By checking, you kind of tell the world you have AK or maybe JJ.

    One other point - if player is a truly fishy calling station, the CBet might actually be for value (meaning his overall calling range is worse than AK).
    taglius wrote: »
    Let’s talk about 3betting ranges, which are usually tight on a 1-3 table. If you 3bet with QQ-AA, you would Cbet this board for value. By checking, you kind of tell the world you have AK or maybe JJ.

    One other point - if player is a truly fishy calling station, the CBet might actually be for value (meaning his overall calling range is worse than AK).

    If i had QQ-AA I would definitely C-bet. In my mind, I also checked because I did not neccesarily want to get involved in a huge pot. I was OKAY with checking through at the moment in time. I can only call this gut feeling, instinct, or cowardice, however, do you guys think that this gut feeling and giving up should never happen?

    If the re-raise to 40 was small, would 50 be a better 3-bet? Higher? Thanks for all the theoretical influences guys. It helps get my mind churning at this level.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    MW is multi-way, a pot with more than 2 players.

    So here’s the problem - in a 3bet pot, many players will assume your range is roughly JJ+ and AK. Once you fail to CBet this flop, they can safely assume you have AK. It’s never good when people can guess your hand exactly.

    We need to fire one more bet to continue to pretend we might have QQ+. We don’t have to worry about getting involved in a huge pot because we’re going to fold if we’re raised, or if called and we don’t improve.
  • westwdwestwd Red Chipper Posts: 38 ✭✭
    Raise larger pre - I know its been mentioned already but no one has given a size suggestion. Generally in position I would make it 3x the original raise + a little bit for each limper - so $50 in this case. Dude called $40 with Q5. Punish his fishiness and make him call more with terrible hands - if I already on this read on him I may raise a little bit more even.

    I think checking is fine here on the flop. If it was heads up, then yes, continue to rep the big overpairs and barrel a good card for you on the turn. But with 3 players you will just get called too often. The reason we bluff the flop in a heads up pot is to get folds. If you can't get folds often enough then you are just giving money away.

    I get the point about looking like you have AK when you check. I don't think that is necessarily true though. On this board you can elect to check JJ, 88, 9T, AJ. I love it when people put me on AK because people do it way too often. If they assume you have AK every time you check flop, then start checking flop with the above mentioned hands and get max value (except 9T on a blank obviously) on turn and river when they say "I put you on AK". Just because you actually have AK in this spot doesn't mean that is what you have every time.

    I don't think you accomplish anything with the turn raise. You give him a good price to call if he has anything and if he just decided to bluff into 2 opponents with air then he just folds and moves on. If he does have air, AK is likely ahead. If the other player folds it allows him to keep bluffing on the river so you can make the occasional hero call on the river when one of your outs doesn't hit. Also, I completely agree jfarrow - if he does re-raise you, you are crushed and can't really fold.

    Nice river!!!!! Gotta get lucky sometimes.

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