2/5 new villain with big stack

ColepietschColepietsch Red Chipper Posts: 33
edited May 2015 in Live Poker Hands
It's 2/5 500$ max casino I buy in for 500 I played 3 hands in the first orbit. Won all three. I only showed down one hand which was a 10 high flush. My stack ballooned to 1000$ then I didn't catch a good situation or hand for over an hour until this:
One 30yr old who I have no history with seems to be a good player. He limps (1500$) UTG+1 hero in MP makes it 25$ with :Qd:Qs and only he calls. Pot: 57$
Flop: :6d:9d:8h he donks for 25$ I raise to 60$ he furrows his brow and calls. Pot: 177$
Turn: :5d he checks I check back.
river: :4h he bets 150$
I think he thinks that I think it looks like a bluff and would call. what's a conclusion you can come up with. Thanks for all the feedback.

Comments

  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    With no history this is a fold for me. It's a nearly pot-sized bet at $2-$5 on the river, which means it has to be a bluff about >30% of the time for you to call. You can only beat a bluff, and he bet-called the flop with something, which probably benefited from that turn card. If you call you're hoping he's got like J-T, and hands like that I don't think make up a third of his range.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    I would have bet the turn
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Snap fold.

    That's the first thought in my brain. However in real life, my body refuses to accept the command, and instead my brain begins the 5 Steps of Loss. First Denial, then Anger. Next comes Negotiating, but I usually skip that step. (Some people try to make a deal - like "I fold you show?", or "take back half and I call?"). Next, Depression, and finally Acceptance. After about 60 seconds I make the fold that really should have been a snap fold if it weren't for my dang brain.
  • ColepietschColepietsch Red Chipper Posts: 33
    haha nice five step process u got. I talked to him to see if he'd talk back or squirm but he was solid and I folded. Betting the turn makes sense but it filled so many draws and I'm in position. If he checks the river I get my wish of a cheap showdown.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He can be betting larger for value because he missed the turn value. This just isn't a profitable call even if he has some bluffs. The board has hit his range harder than yours and all you can do is guess/fold.
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    A couple things:

    I'd def raise bigger on flop. You're giving him 4 to 1 on a call on a very dynamic flop, and you're tipping off your hand, while gaining no information about his, as anything he donks this flop with is calling a near-min raise. He donked for only 1/2 pot - don't base your raise size on his bet, base it on the pot size and board texture and make it $100 here. His ep limp range is heavy with sc's and mid pairs, so charge those pair + draw hands.

    I'm not sure why we'd ever want to bet this turn, as this is one of the worst cards in the deck for us - it absolutely smashes his range. (Also, if he's calling flop with weaker made hands hoping you're raising a draw on flop, you just got there in his eyes, so you're not getting any more value out of a lot of those hands.) Check back turn cussing on the inside, angry fold river. :(
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    IMO, if you bet the turn a lot of good things can happen. You keep you hand uncapped. Villain might fold, where the value lies in buying his equity and/or not having to face a fold on the river with the best hand. Villain might reraise leading to a pretty easy fold. Villain might call, which might elicit another river check or a river bet that Hero knows a lot more about than if checked the turn

    Villain could have donked with a number of hands that the turn does not hit. I feel the best way to find that out starts with the turn bet. A turn check puts puts you immediately into bluff catcher mode without adding additional information that a turn bet provides.
  • HerocallerHerocaller Red Chipper Posts: 69
    Agree w ivandurst....
    Flop raise is way small....u need to give him the wrong price to draw so he can make the error...if we make it cheap hoping he hangs around-we make the error...
    I like the turn check in a 2/5 game cuz :
    1- if ur betting the flush ur taking the bluffs out of his range and putting them in Urs. We need to be able to be called by worse and/or get folds by better. Unless it's a loose/bad game that is not going to happen here.

    2- ur opening urself up to a raise which a creative solid player could do and could get u to fold ur showdown hand...regardless of his actual holding.

    I think hand plays differently if flop raise was higher.
  • Elgatonegro99Elgatonegro99 Red Chipper Posts: 30
    Easy giving up in this spot. If we don't give up with an overpair on this run out when are we giving up?

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