Hand #14

Grant TGrant T Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
Hi Guys,

Here is my detailed analysis of hand 14 just looking for some feedback on how I tackled this hand and would be interested to see how my ranges compared to others. I look forward to your input thanks

HAND 14
Final table of a $11 online event, we are one of the big stacks. Loose passive player is on the button and has been regularly calling too wide, weak tight players are in the bb and blinds are due to go up soon. There is also a $600 pay jump to consider.

Preflop
Position: 7 handed MP1; Open to 3bb with Ad,Ks
Standard open with A,ko I am going to be opening somewhat tightish but given my position but knowing I have weak players in the blinds might allow me to add a few other hands in my range than I otherwise normally would play; A,Ko however will always be in my opening range here. After I open the loose passive player calls which is totally expected given he has been calling a lot all day wide and has the button. I think 3 betting with A,Q and 99 are right on the edge of his 3 betting range and I think this type of player would be more apt to call then raise these hands.

Flop: Kh,8h,4s Pot: 8.2bb I bet 6bb
I am happy with this flop I will definitely be looking to Cbet for value on this board given my opponent is loose and passive meaning he will be unlikely to raise me much and when he does it will allow me to get away fairly cheaply; I expect all draws and 1 pair hands to call and 2 pair hands or better to raise so getting a lot of value.

Turn: 9c Pot: 20.2bb I bet 16bb
A fairly blank card and an easy one for me to keep betting for value in this situation again to price out his drawings and get him to make a mistake I want to size it bigger than normal and 16bb seems good as we giving him about 2.25 to 1 meaning he needs about ~30 Equity to continue and a flush alone only has about ~20. I think my opponent will call a lot on this card and doesn’t really have many sets or pairs as I would expected these to be raised on the flop so the only 2 pairs or sets are the ones he turn which is only a small amount of combos. So I don’t expect him to fold or raise much on this turn but may fold a lot of rivers when bricks come so my plan here is to barrel 3 barrel any 2,3,5,A,K,J,Q that are not hearts and any heart 10,8,7,6 I will be looking to bluff catch or fold depending on bet size etc.

River: 4s Pot: 52.2bb Shove for 40BB
On the surface this is a horrible shove, as he has a ton of flush draws in his range that will just snap off however we may be able to get enough combos that we beat in order to justify it. We are risking 30bb to win 82BB so we are betting about ¾ pot meaning we need to win the pot about 43% of time as a bluff. Assuming he calls all top pairs and better he ends up calling with 81 combos out of 214 which means he is folding ~38 of his combos on the river to this shove this is less than the 43% we need however now we factor in those 81 combos 55 are beating me and 26 I am beating

So my EV will be (.38 x 52.2bb) folds + (.68 x -82.2bb) Call and lose + (.32 x 82.2bb) = 19.8 – 55.9 +26.3 = -9.8BB. This is a bad shove versus my opponents range. I feel I could make this move on a lot of the rivers but ones that have a heart would be bad to shove.

Comments

  • Ben HaylesBen Hayles RCP Coach Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Hi Grant T, I came to similar conclusions in this hand and I think overall you've done a good job here. I was a bit confused by how many combinations you had for your opponent's range at each street. I had 368 preflop, 200 at the flop, 81 at the turn and 65 combinations calling the river bet. Does that make sense to you?
  • Grant TGrant T Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Hi Ben,

    Thank you for the feedback, very much appreciated.
    I added a few more A,x offsuit hands into his preflop range as it was noted he was often calling too wide and probably that typical player in my game tends to just play an A,x either suited or unsuited just cause its an ace. So I ended up with a few more combos.
  • QuadzillaQuadzilla Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Hi Grant, I agree with your assessment in regards to shoving the river; I don't like this shove, either; however, if the hero is going to call an all-in, anyway, he may as well shove. It's a tough spot. I think I'd check fold, here.
  • bogata XLbogata XL Red Chipper Posts: 29 ✭✭
    I think a passive callstation will 3bet QQ and AQ+ preflop
    Callrange PRF
    22-JJ 60cb
    A8-AJ 48 cb
    BrBr 84 cb
    65s-T9s 20cb
    K9s Q9s J9s 11 cb
    T8s 4cb

    227 cb
    18,5%

    My equity vs this range 61,73%

    FLOP I hit TPTK
    I think even a passive player will raise his sets 44 and 88

    His callrange
    TP 6cb
    PP below TP with JJ TT 99 18cb
    lower PP 22 33 55 66 77 30cb
    MP A8 T8s 98s 87s 18cb
    FD are only 11 cb 5,5% of his range
    Gs 76s 65s 8cb
    bdFD 15cb

    118cb
    58%
    My equity with TPTK is 84,55% vs this range

    TURN
    He will raise set 99
    He will fold small PP 22 33 55 66

    His callrange to my 2ndbarrel
    2P with K9s and 98s 3cb
    TP 24cb
    PP below TP JJ and TT 12cb
    MP A9s Q9s J9s and T9s 8cb
    WP with 8x and PP 77 21cb
    FD 11cb
    OESD JTs and 76s 6cb

    79cb 70%
    My equity is 86,91 versus this range

    RIVER
    4h and the flush arrives.
    As I thought that he would always raise his sets, he has no quad or FH in his range.
    But with a passive player you can never be sure of this.
    I have TPTK on a paired 3suited board. I would never go all-in here.
    What worse hands will call me?
    Even a passive player will not risk his TNlife with a weak pair. He will not pay me off with a worse pair in my opinion.

    I would check and hope that he will check behind with his 1P-hands. If he goes all-in I give him credit for 2P or a flush.

    If you x/f this hand you still have 40bb and still have a good stack. If you loose this hand you will only have 10bb left.

    1st callrange
    His callrange when you go all-in
    Good 2P with K9s 1cb
    Bad 2P with 98s 2cb, only these 2 cb I will beat
    Flush 11cb

    14cb 17,7%

    My equity 14%

    2nd Callrange with also TP
    His callrange when you go all-in
    Good 2P with K9s 1cb
    Bad 2P with 98s 2cb, only these 2 cb I will beat
    Flush 11cb

    TP 24cb

    38cb 48%

    My equity vs this range 68,42%

    In a cashgame this all-in is maybe correct, but in a TN I wouldn't do it. I don't have HRM to check the best line.

    ICMizer says that Nash Equilibrium is to push AKo UTG+1 preflop.

  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Preflop: I’m OOP and heads up against a Loose Pass calling station on the BU, who's’ been calling too wide, a lot, and without regard to position. There is very little he will 3B. For instance, he would 3B AQs but not AQo. His calling range is 25% (308) JJ-22,AQo-A6o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AJs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s.

    His range equity vs. my hand has me advantaged 63/37.

    Flop :Kh:8h:4s

    I remove from his range any small PPs that don’t make sets and the weak pairs that aren't FDs. His Ax combos continue only if they are hearts. Only A8o continues. His SCs continue only if they are suited to hearts with the exception of those containing an 8. The only Q to continue is KQo. His calling range becomes JJ-77,44,A8o,KQo-KTo,A8s,KQs-K7s,J8s,T8s,98s,87s-86s,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,9h7h,7h6h,7h5h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h. There is nothing here that Loose Pass would raise with, even the sets would be played passively.

    My hand equity is strong against his range, 75/25

    Turn :9c

    The Loose Pass calling station continues to call with everything including nut flush draws, 44, 2P, KJ and JsTs. His range remains 100% (101) of previous JJ-77,44,A8o,KQo-KTo,A8s,KQs-K7s,J8s,T8s,98s,87s-86s,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,9h7h,7h6h,7h5h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h.

    River :4h

    I shove and Loose pass calls. He would do this with a flush for sure and likely with KT but not A8. He calls with 51% (55) of previous 99-88,44,KQo-KTo,KQs-K7s,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,9h7h,7h6h,7h5h,6h5h. We win only if he calls with Kx

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