Hand 20

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
Yet another super wide range to type out....dammit

We are in the big blind holding

:3c :Tc

The hand starts with middle position who is running 57/16 on 106 who limps in. His stats definitely suggest a loose passive player so I constructed his range to be pretty wide

JJ-22, AJs-A2s,KQs,QJs-Q6s,JTs-J8s,T9-54s,J9s-64s,J8s-74s,AJo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q7o,JTo-J7o,T9o-T7o,98o-97o,87o for 43.2% and 573 combos

Workbook questions: would they limp or raise with...
AA - raise
22- limp
98s - limp

Everyone folds we check and the flop comes

:5c :Jc :9c

We bet pot which I think is a pretty standard size and he calls. Even to a loose passive player this flop is pretty scary. I think he calls with pretty much any piece of the flop including pairs of fives, pairs of nines and pairs of Jack's but I think he's folding almost any non-made hand except for maybe an OESD.

A8c-A6c,A4c,A2c,KQc,K8c-K6c,K4c,K2c,Q7c-Q6c,87c-86c,76c,74c,64c,JJ-77,55,A5o,A5o,AJo,KJo,K9o,QJo,Q9o,J9o,T9o,T8o,98o,97o for 145 combos which is 25.3% of his previous range

Workbook questions: does he raise or call with...
A made flush - call
AcXh - maybe call
JT - call
55 - call

The turn comes

:5c :Jc :9c :3h

Again we bet pot and he calls. At this point I'd start to remove some of the middling pairsthat he might've called the flop with and possibly draws such as OESD's. His F TBet stat is high at 67% which, iftrue, would make a pot sized bet auto-profit but the sample size is too small.

KQc,A8c-A6c,A4c,A2c,K8c-K6c,K4c,K2c,Q8c-Q6c,87c-86c,76c,74c,64c,JJ,99,55,AJo,A9o,KJo,K9o,QJo,Q9o,J9o,T9o,98o for 103 combos or 71% of his previous range

Workbook questions: would he call or raise with…
A made flush - call
QT (no club) - he would've folded
Jx- call
Ac9h - call

The river comes

:5c :Jc :9c :3h :8d

We bet $7.50 into $11.25 which seems reasonable given he's called us down to this point. He then shoves all in which is an over bet for him. At this point I would tend to have a loose passive player on pretty much just the nuts and that's it - especially because this is the micros and he's called us down to the river and is showing big time aggression. I think he takes this line with pretty much just flushes. Possibly sometimes with sets but I really really doubt it. This hand is interesting because we don't have any good blockers to the flush. The 10 is a decent blocker but he can have so many suited A's or suited K's. I do think he would shove with weak flushes too tho. I'd have to call $15.81 to win $42.06 which gives me a pot odds of about 37.5%. That would be a tough decision but it would probably end up being a crying call.

His river range only comes out to 14 combos for 13.5% of his previous range. It would be 23 combos for 22.3% of his previous range if you include sets.

Workbook questions: Do you think they would go all in with…
QJ - no
A non nut flush - yes
98 - no


Comments

  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Thanks for the post Brendan... without posting all my ranges etc. I'd probably leave in AQs in his limp calling PF range and, since villian is so passive, I'd probably leave in QT thru the flop and turn. How many times have we seen these player types just call down with 2-way straight draws, especially if he's hold Qc. He might shove the riv with 98 too. I know the hand sample is small but at least we get a decent picture of the VPIP/PFR. He may well think we have an overpair and shoves because he just made his straight. Also I believe our pot odds are 28(ish)% *rounded* {pot after our bet +shove} $42... so call $16/($42+$16) = .275etc. % It's a very close call for us. 75% of his flushes beat us but remember that fishy players do strange things. It's always a head shaker and we might like to know what he turns over. Worth the price to me
  • fatking lfatking l Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    I am totally along Brendan's line. Including the pot odds calculation.
    With my ranges I ended up beating only 2 out of 13 flushes on the river --> clear fold.

    Not that I would be able to fold here :)
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Thanks for correction... You guys 100% right.... Little diff mindset 5 months ago... FOLD FOLD FOLD

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file