Good flop Cbet spot with air?

Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
edited December 2017 in Live Poker Hands
Live deep £1/1, 6 on table. Villain in sb has developed a very wide range of 3betting/big isos - making a large raise on ~50% of hands. My read is that he has overadjusted to the table meta (and is probably being dealt well too), but nobody has really tested that yet. Otherwise seems to be something of a thinking player. On to the hand:

---

I am the effective stack here at £300, the other two have £1000+. I am dealt A5ss in BU

CO limps, I raise to £4. SB repops to £12. CO folds, I opt to 4b to £30, SB flats.

I see villains flop range as all PPs J or smaller, all suited Broadways excluding AQs+, probably some unsuited Broadways, maybe some high SCs. Probably some small suited aces.

Pot is £63 otf. Cards come T84ccc. SB checks. I Cbet £40, with a plan to fire another barrel on brick turns then reassess river.

---

Questions I have about this hand

1) When reviewing this hand, both of my preflop sizings seem a touch too small. The table was opening small but should I be?

2) Is this a good spot to cbet with pure air?
- I ran through a fold equity calculator and got that I need villain to fold circa 40% of the time. I then plugged the hand into flopzilla and got the following:

03WUtRi.png

If I've set up the filters right it looks like villain should be folding about 58% of the time. Even throwing some leeway in for "maybe I didnt calculate his range quite right" it seems like this should be a profitable bet. What do you think?

3) Is firing a second barrel if I'm called really a good idea?
I took the flopzilla layout from the previous calculation and added a brick turn. results below.

YSYlH1E.png

It looks like betting turn is a terrible idea unless villain folds top pair to a second barrel, and even then its kinda marginal using the same %bet size as the flop. I can probably drop bet sizing to 50-55% pot and still get the same effect as far as fold equity goes (3 £25 chips is going to look serious and set up a potential easy river shove).

Do you think villain folds top pair there after calling flop? Or is a second zero equity barrel wishful thinking?

Thanks for reading, thanks for your help.

Comments

  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2017
    Ed Miller likes to do this play, but only when he overbet shoves the River nearly automatically(at least when no 4th club shows up).
    Here’s my take on this:
    This is opponent-dependent completely, and none of us can answer this for you.
    Is your opponent suspicous of you? Does he think you are a super-Nit? Does he even care? Or does he just love to call Turn bets? Does he think you will bet with the lone A of clubs? Or just any AK? My impression that players who can 3-bet allot can take it with a grain of salt that you could have flopped the nut flush, and you need a BIG statement to get it through their head and convince them.
    If you had $600 you could put this opponent under allot of pressure with a huge bet OTR; when he faces these bets and he has KT(TP2K) with $1000+ and he faces the $100 turn bet, he’s not going to think that is the biggest bet ever. This leaves you with, what, $130 on the River? I don’t like our ability to get a fold on Turn or River.

    Even our turn bet could get folds if he looked over and saw $900 left. And if you seem like a pretty tame guy, he will think twice before calling a $475 river bet. He might even fold a set or a smaller flush.

    At your $300 stack I would use this board to get an opponent like this(just from my guess) to value bet thinly against him with any overpair on all 3 streets. He might think we would be more cautious on a monochrome flop with an overpair and try to bluff catch us. He might be suspicous that am I just firing with a whiffed AK or the lone Ac. With only $130 left OTR I bet he would make a bad River call too.

    I would probably check-back the flop and delayed c-bet the Turn on this board with this holding(A5ss) at this stack depth, imitating an overpair that wants to make sure he’s not up against a flush. If we check and he leads-out on the Turn we could raise or fold.
    :Jd:Tc

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    First off, usually with a question like this, you want to ask if you should cbet your range rather than a specific hand.

    That being said, in general, you're going to want to cbet most of the flops here given your pre-flop range. This, however, is a situation where you really should consider your hand and the flop. Why? Because you tend to bet your range because of the fold equity that it creates and/or the equity-when-called. In this case, I don't think that you have much of either.

    This type of V would call widely with any club and would call widely with any pair, thinking that you might just be betting with a club. There goes your fold equity.

    In addition, A5s has almost no equity-when-called, and you are vulnerable to a check-raise.

    In short, I'd check back this flop and would fold to any likely turn bet by V on any card besides an A (and, if an A comes, then I'd evaluate the bet size before picking from my three options).
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    Interesting comments.

    I don't expect to be repping just the nut flush given the preflop action. This is the first 4b the table has seen since I sat down over an hour previously, despite villain in sb 3betting at a very high frequency (he's also not the only 3bettor, just the most frequent by a large margin). I've been playing my regular game (ie. Moderately tight, much tighter than field) and while I've been caught value betting thin against a stationy player I've not been caught when full of shit. I expect villain to believe my range to be TT+/AK or tighter because of these circumstances.

    I don't really see this as a spot for a delayed Cbet. If I have any of the value hands in my range I'm betting due to urgency of value, with the single possible exception of AKcc. Any club, J or 9 kills the action, possibly any ace too. Because of this I expect villain to attack on the turn if I check through.

    I agree now that I'm not deep enough to threaten a big river bet - normal max BI here is £200 but apparently there was some mad action before I turned up. This probably means I need to check turn. Maybe consider overbet shoving river if villain checks - I'll have to think about that one as I'm not a confident overbettor. Not sure if this is the right spot, although it does look like it.

    I don't mind being vulnerable to check raise as I'm not giving up any noticeable equity when I fold. If an ace arrives on the turn I am going to be very unhappy about betting or calling with my kicker. As you say I have near zero showdown equity, so it's either continue the preflop bluff or give up here and now.

    I'm not sure I agree with you that he continues with any club or pair. Top pair yes, Jc or better definitely. I've factored those into the flopzilla assessment you can see in the first post. If villain was a station I probably check fold here, but on the other hand a station never gets into this spot in the first place.

    Thanks for the replies, it's helping me think through this stuff.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭✭
    If you are right about his call 4B range you might want to just put A5s into your C3B range.

    I think you answered your own question with your first post:) In general I believe people way over fold these mono flop which means they get to the turn with stronger range - therefore we should over bluff flops and under bluff turns as our exploit.
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    edited December 2017
    @kenaces I'm not 4betting that for value, but as a 4bet bluff.

    I expect villains 3B range to be up to as wide as the below based on the frequency of his 3bs and isos and the general lack of defense against it on the table:

    OlUtnix.png

    I expect him to fold half his range approximately against a 4B, maybe a little more. Maybe I'm wrong there, but when theres fold equity available I should have a bluffing range.

    In a spot like this one I am heavily polarised. I'm expecting to be able to 4b AK/JJ+ for value, and to pick a similar number of bluff combos. Currently the ones I pick in this spot are A9/8/5/4s, AJo and either KQo or KTs depending on what I want the bluff value ratio to be. Flatting with Middling PPs, most suited broadways, high suited connectors.

    I'd love to have a chat about constructing 4b ranges on the fly. Maybe I should be flatting a bit wider in position. I've been talking to a guy who recommends putting some lower pocket pairs into 3/4b ranges but I'm not convinced yet.





  • eugeniusjreugeniusjr Red Chipper Posts: 427 ✭✭✭
    That is an insane 3B range. Has he ever flatted?
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭✭
    Martin D wrote: »
    @kenaces I'm not 4betting that for value, but as a 4bet bluff.

    I expect villains 3B range to be up to as wide as the below based on the frequency of his 3bs and isos and the general lack of defense against it on the table:

    OlUtnix.png

    I expect him to fold half his range approximately against a 4B, maybe a little more. Maybe I'm wrong there, but when theres fold equity available I should have a bluffing range.

    In a spot like this one I am heavily polarised. I'm expecting to be able to 4b AK/JJ+ for value, and to pick a similar number of bluff combos. Currently the ones I pick in this spot are A9/8/5/4s, AJo and either KQo or KTs depending on what I want the bluff value ratio to be. Flatting with Middling PPs, most suited broadways, high suited connectors.

    I'd love to have a chat about constructing 4b ranges on the fly. Maybe I should be flatting a bit wider in position. I've been talking to a guy who recommends putting some lower pocket pairs into 3/4b ranges but I'm not convinced yet.

    I get that you are "bluffing" with A5s

    Truth is I haven't given much thought in how to develop range vs guy who is 3Bing 31% linear range as I just about never see this, but for sure we should be calling and 4Bing a lot. My first inclination to to call with hands like A5s, and use some worse hands as 4B bluffs, but depending on how wide your ISO range is in this spot it may be hard to have many worse hands to "bluff" with.
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    edited December 2017
    @eugeniusjr I never saw him do so. Raise or fold. Before I joined the table floor told me that one of the 1k stacks had gotten lucky from the standard £200 max BI, and the other had bought to max stack, but I don't know which was which.

    I knew the other three players, and they likely knew me at least vaguely, but those two I hadn't seen before.

    @kenaces You're right. I've not done offtable work before on my iso-> 4b vs wide 3b ranges but its not like I'm swimming in suited 2 gappers or anything like that. Especially since I've automatically tightened up somewhat in reaction to the aggro metagame. Sorry if I oversimplified in the earlier post.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭✭
    Martin D wrote: »
    Sorry if I oversimplified in the earlier post.

    Post seemed good to me and there is no sorry in poker :)

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This thread both initial post and advice is a gold mine!

    I really like the way hero played the hand and sizing.
    Iso 4x great! Allows you to call or 4 bet vs an aggro 3 bettor behind you.
    Taking the initiative by 4 betting 2.5x (30bb \ 10%) of your stack. Also great!

    Now for postflop. As stated above
    kenaces wrote: »
    If you are right about his call 4B range you might want to just put A5s into your C3B range.

    I think you answered your own question with your first post:) In general I believe people way over fold these mono flop which means they get to the turn with stronger range - therefore we should over bluff flops and under bluff turns as our exploit.

    Going off this i think 2\3 pot cbet is fine. Maybe a little larger with 300bb effective if we are not planning to barrel any turns which as Ken pointed out is probably correct. A big cbet can either be a scared hand like KhKd on this CCC board or a hand playing for stacks like AcAs.

    I do think villains 3bet range is a bit too wide but you are at the table not us.i would probably drop a large portion of his off suite hands. Only do AJo+ KQo+ then your suited range is fine if he is really playing 50% of hands. Usually aggressive 3 bettors are around 20%.

    I also don't expect a lot of folds to your 4 bet given stack depth and sizing. He is callig $18 to win $45 so he should continue with most of his range. This doesn't mean your 4bet is too small. As you have a plan postflop. Sizing just determines when you want to shut down the action. Maybe if you make it $60 and end it preflop that is ok too just keep in mind your creating a low spr. 60 would be 30% of your stack. I wouldn't cbet unless you hit at that point.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Octavian I wrote: »
    As much as I like Flopzilla, I strongly believe that this game is a people game that can be beat even without Flopzilla or any other similar software.

    It can be beat, but can you become elite without it? Probably not. I have yet to see an online pro crush for 10bb+ without a hud unless its heads up which requires a feel for the game dynamics more than any other. I encourage all software as a learning step. Why limit yourself to 1 book instead of the whole library?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Octavian I wrote: »
    As much as I like Flopzilla, I strongly believe that this game is a people game that can be beat even without Flopzilla or any other similar software.

    It can be beat, but can you become elite without it? Probably not. I have yet to see an online pro crush for 10bb+ without a hud unless its heads up which requires a feel for the game dynamics more than any other. I encourage all software as a learning step. Why limit yourself to 1 book instead of the whole library?

    I'm with @Octavian I on this one. Flopzilla, HUDs, etc. are tools. For online games, a HUD might be an indispensable tool. But, for live poker, a HUD (duh) is useless except as a tool to get you in the mindset of tracking opponents' plays.

    Similarly, in live poker, I find that, even if you could pull out Flopzilla in the middle of a hand, it would only be a tool -- or even a crutch -- in the event of a difficult decision or a decision based purely on math. Live poker, though, relies more on other factors (i.e., opponent, image, table, etc.) than on pure math, and I consider things like Flopzilla helpful/essential tool in understanding the math but NOT in being an overall winning poker player in live games.
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    I agree you don't *need* flopzilla, especially when equilab is free, but if the goal is to get better quickly and make more money then it's useful.

    It's just a visualisation tool. You put shit in, you get shit out. You keep hammering away with it though, improve your thought process, arrive at at the table able to exploit fish better and leak less to stronger players. Maybe find edges on some of the stronger players, but as long as you are running even Vs them then the money you pull out of fish stays in your pocket. That's the goal.

    I'm not in Vegas, I'm in an industrial town on the UK. There's only typically 4-5 casino cash tables running across the city on a Friday night, and the ability to game select is therefore limited. Gotta get good if I don't want to be a fish.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,200 ✭✭✭✭
    Octavian I wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Octavian I wrote: »
    As much as I like Flopzilla, I strongly believe that this game is a people game that can be beat even without Flopzilla or any other similar software.

    It can be beat, but can you become elite without it? Probably not. I have yet to see an online pro crush for 10bb+ without a hud unless its heads up which requires a feel for the game dynamics more than any other. I encourage all software as a learning step. Why limit yourself to 1 book instead of the whole library?

    Probably I can't become elite, ..., but you know what?
    I don't need to be elite to make money playing NL. I play in pools of bad and weak players and I become an elite in an instant. We can make way way much more money by playing against weak and bad players then we can accomplish becoming an elite. I mean, an elite compared against a good player but not yet an elite himself?
    Well, thank you very much but I don't need diplomas and titles. What I need is what I have and what I'm going after.

    I will always be an elite among my bad and weak recreational opponents that flood Las Vegas day in and day out. ..,..., 24/7. The elite part is good and I do appreciate that but what I'm looking is how to make scores. I'm looking for weak spots. I'm looking to hustle the weak and get out of the way when I see here and there some elite player.
    I don't need to be an elite to play between other elites. I like to play against the most dumb, weak, idiots, monkeys and unsophisticated players. Las Vegas is the place where you fine all those specimens.

    I think it depends on what your goals are. Some people are fine winning at the lower limits against a weak pool. If you want to continue to move up, significant off the table work is a must.
  • bigburge10bigburge10 Red Chipper Posts: 1,311 ✭✭✭✭
    Octavian I wrote: »
    I don't need to be an elite to play between other elites. I like to play against the most dumb, weak, idiots, monkeys and unsophisticated players. Las Vegas is the place where you fine all those specimens.
    Does this become boring? Certainly you have a large pool of weak players landing every 30 minutes and therefore you aren't forced to evolve in order to survive. However, from a mental standpoint, I can't imagine remaining stagnant and simply becoming a monkey myself. Also, I'd say that if you attempt to become "elite", your win-rate would also improve against the lesser skilled competition. However, as @Austin correctly points out, it depends on our goals, and each of us has different goals in this game. But, then again, we're on a poker forum! Lets learn to beat everyone!
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭✭
    If your poker skill set and win rate only relies on the kindness of strangers spewing off stacks - at some point in the future the game will pass you by, and of course odds of moving up are slim.
  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
    Against a less skilled player I think 3 and 4 flushboards are great for double barreling and overbetting per the slim number of hands that can comfortabley face pressure and most players without a 2p, set or at least a naked higher club will give up. I would mix it up with a more skilled player as he will be very suspicious of you firing on 3 or 4 flush boards as he/she also knows that there are very few made hands you can be firing multiple barrells with...
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I once knew an elite player who played 20\18\7 full ring. Yes, he was in a game filled with fish at 25nl full ring back in 2009 or so but his win rate was around 10bb\100. That's a true elite player, not just someone who grinds out the nuts and waits for fish. He exploits not only the fish but the regs as well. That's when the game is more fun! When your not worried or avoiding anyone on the table.
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    I figure this one has run its course, time for the big reveal.

    I Cbet flop, villain folded, showing a T for top pair.

    I don't think that tells me anything I didn't know about his preflop ranges. Not without knowing the kicker anyway.

    I'm a bit worried if I think about it too much I'll get spewy while trying to exploit this knowledge postflop.
  • RCP Coach - Fausto ValdezRCP Coach - Fausto Valdez RCP Coach Posts: 859 ✭✭✭✭
    @Martin D the fact that you know you by in large have a 0 equity bluff on turn should tell you that any other bet coming from you should be done as an exploit. You will naturally show up with other parts of your range that are better suited to fight in this spot. This same process could be done on the flop as well.
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  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    That's true, this entire hand results from me exploiting an over wide 3bet range anyway. Attempting even wider exploitation based on the results of the hand would probably be silly.

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