Hand 26

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
Hand starts with UTG opening for 3.5x. He's running 38/27 but only on 27 hands. So we essentially have no stats on him. I'm sitting OTB with

:8c :9c

His EP RFI and RFI in general are way too high. I constructed his range as

AA-22,AKo-A8o,A5o-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s for 40.3% form or 494 combos

Workbook questions: Are they the kind of player to have a static or dynamic range here?

Given his RFI's are about the same I'd lean towards more of a static range that he's raising.

We call OTB, which seems reasonable and everyone else folds. Flop comes

:5h :Qc :7h

And he bets out $3 which is about 70% pot. This doesn't seem like a great flop for his range. I constructed it as

AA-QQ,AKs-AQs,AJh-A8h,A6h,A4h-A2h,KQs,KJh-K8h,QJs-Q8s,JTh-J8h,T9h-T8h,98h,96h,86s-64s,77,55,43h,32h,AKo-AQo,KQo,QJo-Q8o for 30% of his previous range or 134 combos

Workbook quesitons: Would he ever check with...
QQ - yeah sometimes
TT- yeah
7x- yeah

We call and the turn comes

:5h :Qc :7h :3s

I'm not sure I love the call on the flop. I think given the texture we'd have much better hands to continue with in our range and definitely much better draws. With just a gutshot+BDFD I'd like a raise there instead. If we get reraised it would be easy to get away from. I'd probably just call with more mediocre draws like normal FD's or OESD's.

Anyway, we called, the Turn came and he bets out......$3 into $10.25. Huh.

Here is where things get interesting in this hand because you have to think that such an obviously weird sizing has to mean something BUT without any reads/stats on V it's hard to say exactly what it means. Could he be milking us with a monster hand like top set? Could he be trying to induce a raise with a monster hand? Could he be doing this with a more marginal holding like a draw or middle pair just....hoping to maintain the initiative? It's hard to say and I haven't faced a line like this very much at all so I'd be interested to hear opinions about it. I think given the situation a call would be best here.

AA-QQ,77,55,AKh,AQs,AJh-A8h,A6h,A4h-A2h,KQs,KJh-K8h,QJS-Q8s,JTh-J8h,T9h-T8h,98h,96h,86h,64h,43h-32h,AQo,KQo,QJo-Q8o for 84.3% of his previous range or 113 combos

Workbook questions: Would they bet like this with...
77 - maybe
QJ -maybe
AK - maybe (lol)

We do call and the river comes

:5h :Qc :7h :3S: :8h

He then bets out $6 into $16.25 which is yet another weird sizing. Again, it's very hard for me to assume to know what these weird sizings mean. To me, if he is trying to milk me for value, I'd think he's not such a great player because he's likely going to miss out on a lot of value that way in the long run. I have him betting OTR with basically TP+

AA-QQ,77,55,AKh-A9h,A6h,A4h-A2h,KQh-K9h,QJh-Q9h,Q8s,JTh-J9h,T9h,96h,64h,43h,32h,Q8o for 48.1% of his previous range or 54 combos

Workbook quesitons: Do you think they would use this sizing with...
KQ - Probably not
TT - yeah maybe
A flush - probably not

This hand aint' over! We decide to raise OTR to $31 which is about a 2x pot overbet. While we played the hand in such a way that makes it seem as if we COULD have the nuts, I'm not convinced we have a range advantage unless we're sure that his odd/small bet sizes indicate weakness. So I'm not sure I love this river overbet either but I'd love to hear thoughts on this too. I think he calls us with basically just sets+

That comes out to 33 combos or 61% of his previous range.

Comments

  • fatking lfatking l Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    Turn bet size indicates that he wants to get to SD or that he is drawing. Clearly not strong here, so
    No set
    No overpair
    TP is only with a weak kicker here like QT, KQ
    Even the nut FD would be betting large, so let's take it out

    I have villain OTR with:
    7hoou7l7l9qb.png

    bet size is slightly larger than on the turn, so we could read into it that V has improved.

    I do not have him holding the nut FD, so I like raising the river ....
    ...... in a vacuum. What about versus this opponent. Will he fold a flush?
    Villain has 10X a flush
    24 x top pair
    and 3 x A high

    I we assume taht we get looked up by the flushes and all others fold, then we have 73% fold equity

    so 2x overbet is fine..... if he has a fold button


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