Good bluff but unlucky, or spew-tastic?

theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
edited May 2015 in Live Poker Hands
1/2 at Flamingo, Effective stacks about $180 lots of generally loose passive tourists

Pre-flop 5 people limp I complete SB with :4s:3s . BB raises to 7, everyone calls so I call as well.

Flop (42) :8s:7s:7h BB bets 15. cutoff calls. I call.

Turn (87) :4h I check BB bets 20. cutoff calls 20. Hero raises to 85

Here's my thinking
- It's very unlikely BB has a 7. His bet sizing is weak and he's unlikely to call since either I or the cutoff could have a 7. He might call with a flush draw, but I'm actually ahead of that part of his range right now.
- Cutoff might have a 7, but he had two chances to raise the flop vs small bets and didn't. People with trips raise pretty often for protection when the board has so many draws.
- If a villain has trips but not a boat, I still have 8 outs.
- I'm betting 85 to win 125 so my bluff needs to work about 40% of the time.

Good bluff or spew?
Even if it's a good bluff, is it better to take the direct odds to draw to the flush?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
    I don't expect both players to fold often enough. Even if BB has a lot of AK/AQ type hands, the CO is going to have a fair chunk of single pairs that won't fold, or bigger flush draws that won't fold, or even T9 which won't fold. Or maybe BB has those hands.

    I'm not sure which one has the hand that won't fold, but between the two of them, I don't expect this play to work out well. Take the fantastic price and call to draw...
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  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    Although I'm currently ahead of T9 and other flush draws, so I don't mind if those hands call.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
    theClubber wrote:
    Although I'm currently ahead of T9 and other flush draws, so I don't mind if those hands call.

    My bad, totally missed that we hit a pair on the turn. Still don't think it's going to be best though =)
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think Bob Ciaffone wrote that a similar situation is one of his favorite places to bluff. However he was talking about on the flop, and on a dryer flop. He would check/raise big on a board with a raggy pair if he was in the blinds.

    But for 2 reasons I think this is more risky in this situation. First the board is too wet. And second you have 2 loose players that have already shown interest in the pot. They might not have much, but such players can get very stubborn in this situation.

    Having said all that, your play is borderline a good play just for value. Almost :) I think you have less fold equity than you think, but perhaps more real equity. I'd just take the next card and hope it bricks for a cheap showdown, or hits for you. Bluff catching on a brick gets a little interesting. A 4 is an interesting river card as well, which brings bluff catching back into it, because you certainly can't go crazy with a 4. (You will find nasty slowplayers with a 7 here, and obviously 65 just pulled into the station.) A 3 also doesn't help you, but is basically a brick card.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think it is a fine play, but some questions spring to mind:

    I know this may not matter in this game, but what are you trying to represent? Only 56 really plays like this.

    If you had a seven or better, would you let it go unraised on the wet flop?

    Why are you getting involved with a hand that dominates no draws from the worst position in poker with less than 100 bbs effective?

    Who are you bluffing? Can they even let go of a better draw? (you are only marginally ahead of these) Is the field caller a slowplayer? (you are in Vegas)

    Note that you have no room for an effective river bomb.

    @SS: BB never has dry ak or aq after continuing twice for a bet with no fold equity into two players on this board.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    theClubber wrote:
    Even if it's a good bluff, is it better to take the direct odds to draw to the flush?

    We haven't addressed this question - I suppose because no one so far thinks it's a very good time to bluff. But to answer this question, I think it's a no. A good bluff is a good bluff for a reason - because it's profitable. You'd have to do a complicated equity calculation, but for the bluff not to be better, you'd probably have to have a much deeper stack, and also feel for some reason that you'd have high implied odds if you hit. How can you possibly? If anything, if you hit you are in serious danger of reverse implied odds. You can't bet much on the river, and you sure as heck are going to hate getting raised. I don't see how it could possibly be that the bluff is "good", but you are still better to take the odds to draw.
  • starling81starling81 Red Chipper Posts: 88
    I personally don't think there is anything wrong with completing with 43s from SB, or seeing the flop at sick price in general. Just have to be careful post-flop and not make mistakes.

    I'm with majority on this one, not a good spot to bluff on that turn given that you check called the flop. I mean when you check call there, your range is very capped and you cannot try to represent a strong hand on later street as a bluff. Neither i think you should try to "fill your draw" no matter how sick the price is. In 3 way ("almost" limped pot) pot, you might just get over-flushed when you get there you might just end-up with difficult decision on the river.

    What you think about leading this flop? Most will open up on me for asking this, like I'm committing suicide with a lead there. But i could see myself leading there. You will force the original raiser to reveal his hand facing a donk bet and action that villain #2 performs after OR faced a donk bet and acted will define his range more.

    Just a thought....


    P.S. Split said "Take the fantastic price and call to draw...", and since i said "i wouldn't" i must add the disclaimer here: "SplitSuit is a poker Jedi and I'm a tuna, dolphin safe tuna..."
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Donk bluffing the flop is better than bluffing the turn.

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