Hand 27

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
Hand starts with the CO running 34/13 on 109 hands opening for 3x. We're in the SB with

:Kh :Kc

V has a limping percentage of 23% and there's a TAGish player on the BB running 19/15 on 1000 hands. Not a ton of hands on V but those stats look a little loose-passive. Might be going for a steal. I constructed his range as

AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s,32s for 307 combos or 25.1% form

Workbook questions:
Is he raising here with a wide steal range? Probably but his stats don't give me a ton of confidence that he knows how/when to steal
Would he open-limp any hands here? Given that he has a limping range I would guess things like low suited one-gappers, some suited two gappers and maybe some suited Kings.

We then 3-bet to $5 which seems reasonablish. He just calls our 3-bet. I would think he 4-bets us with value hands so AA-QQ + AK and folds out a lot of the junkier hands he opened with. I'm not sure he has much of a 4-bet bluff range especially against a SB 3-bet.

TT-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s for 182 combos or 59% of his previous range

Workbook questions: Would he 4-bet call or fold with...
AA- 4-bet
TT- call
A8s - fold...maybe call

The flop comes

:8d :4h :6s

And we bet half pot which seems very standard. He calls. V's FvFCB stat is 75% (!!!). It's a small sample size but it still tells me he is likely overfolding to c-bets. He, however, calls us and this is where things get a bit tricky with his range because I don't think he's floating very often. I had him continuing with basically middle pair + plus gutshot+pair. I unchecked overcards in Flopzilla although I do think he continues with overs at least some percentage of the time especially if he has a BDFD with them. I have to think it's a small percentage of the time though. I think this is where V's range gets too narrow for me in this analysis.

TT-44,98s-76s for 42 combos or 24.9% of his previous range (which is in line with his 75% fold to flop C-bet lol....still too narrow tho in hindsight)

Workbook questions: Would he fold raise or call with hands like...
AJ - fold unless BDFD
KQ - fold unless BDFD
99 - call
77 - call

The turn comes

:8d :4h :6s :2h

We bet about 60% pot and he calls us again! Somewhat surprising imo. Then again there really isn't much of his previous range that I'd be folding out here.

TT-88,66-44,98s-76s for 37 combos or 85.7% of his previous range

Workbook questions: Would they call again with...
A high - Very unlikely
Overpairs - yes
66 - yes

The river comes

:8d :4h :6s :2h :AD:

We jam all-in and he calls us. Not good. I have him calling with sets and maybe pairs of 8's. Super narrow range at this point but I just really doubt this guy gets to the river with an A here.

88,66,44,98s-87s for 15 combos or 41% of his previous range.

I should've included some overcards after the flop bet. I definitely have V's range way tol narrow after not including that.

Comments

  • fatking lfatking l Red Chipper Posts: 32 ✭✭
    Ok, so I think this villain does not have a clue. Given limp and steal stats, we can assume that villain has a stronger range than an average CO steal.
    Lets be conservatvie and start with a ~15% range

    189 hands

    According to the small sample size stats fold 2 3bet, so we will play them all from here.

    Villain misses the flop completely.
    V plays fit or fold on the flop according to stats, so I assume that
    77+ are calls
    KQ, AJ are folds

    Just for the sake of the exercise I also put AK into the calling range
    The turn is basically = flop, no reason to fold anything, continue with 100% of the range
    w0jytmsfn7z4.png

    The river brings of course the A.
    On first glance, I do not know if I like the shove. Villain will call us 100% down.
    9 out of 33 hands beat us (AA and AK+), these are 27.2% and our KK has an equity of 28 versus the full range. So villain has just to fold a couple of hands to exploit us here.

    On the other hand I assumed that villain is floating OTF and OTT with AK. Also I assumed that we do not get 4bet by AA preflop or raised on later streets.

    Overall, I therefore think that the shove is cool and profitable

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file