Hand 32

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
Very interesting hand. Lots of cool spots to think about in this one.

Hand begins with UTG opening for 3.5x running 55/13 on 42 hands. Now we don't have a good sample size on this player but no reg is going to have 55/13 after 42 hands. He has a 100% Fv3bet and an RFI of 100%. He seems like a typical new player. Not positionally aware and thus playing the same range from every position. Not aware of the gap concept and thus calling way too wide.

We call and tbh I'm not a big fan of just calling with a lot of my range here. I see the value of getting involved with a fishy player IP but considering we're in the HJ and so many players can wake up behind us with a big hand I'm not a big fan. I would be 3-betting the hands that are at the bottom of my range. Suited A's, double blockers and some suited connectors would be 3-bet as well. In retrospect, I kinda wish I broadened my 3-bet range on this one to include hands like small pairs and mediocre A's too but I didn't when I first analyzed the hand. I ended up calling with my smaller pairs.

I probably would flat AA hoping to induce a squeeze. I'd think about it with KK too.

AA,TT-22,AJo-A9o,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AJs-A9s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,J9s,T8s,97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s for 19.3% form or 256 combos

AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s for 45.7% form or 606 combos

The flop comes

:Jh :6h :5s

Equity my range: 67% Theirs: 32.8%

V c-bets into us and we raise. The c-bet on a dynamic flop that favors the PFC from OOP further makes me think he's a newer player. He has a C-bet stat of 100% which is surely not super reliable given the sample but he is likely C-betting too wide if he C-bets here.

I think with a lot of my value hands I'd be inclined to just call and let him keep betting into me. I'd be mainly raising with draws to add some FE since I don't have much SDV and I don't mind taking it down now. I'd balance this with raising value hands that need protection on this flop such as TP and two pair. I'd be inclined to just call with sets.

AA,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s,87s,65s,43s,AhTh,Ah9h,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,Qh9h,Th8h,5h4h,5h3h,3h2h for 33.6% of previous range or 76 combos

AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,98o,87o,AKs-A2s,KQs-KJs,K6s-K5s,QJs,JTs-J8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,32s,KhTh,KsTs,Kh9h,Ks9s,Kh8h,Ks8s,Ks7s,Kh4h,Ks4s,Kh3h,Ks3s,Kh2h,Ks2s,QhTh,QsTs,Qh9h,Qs9s,Qh8h,Qs8s,Th9h,Ts9s,Th8h,Ts8s,Ts7s for 75.9% of his previous range or 421 combos

The turn comes

:Jh :6h :5s :7h

Equity my range: 68.7% Theirs: 31.2%

He checks and we put in a 66% pot bet which he calls. This is a great card to bluff on because it completes the straights and flushes. Against this player, I'm doing this with 100% of my range

V has a WTSD stat of 18% and a W$SD of 75% but I don't think these are reliable or sustainable stats because of the sample size.

I think V would begin to fold out some of his weaker holdings like middle and bottom pair but I think he chases with pretty much all of his FD's.

AA,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s,87s,65s,43s,AhTh,Ah9h,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,Qh9h,Th8h,5h4h,5h3h,3h2h for 100% of my previous range or 76 combos

AA-JJ,88-44,AJo,A8o,A4o,KJo,QJo,JTo-J8o,98o,87o,AJs,A8s,A4s,KJs,QJs,JTs-J8s,98s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AcKh,AdKh,AsKh,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Ks8s,Kh5h,Kh4h,Ks4s,Kh3h,Kh2h,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,KcQh,KdQh,KsQh,KhQc,KhQd,KhQs,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qs8s,AcTh,AdTh,AsTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,TcTh,TdTh,TsTh,Th9h,Th8h,Ts8s,Ac9h,Ad9h,As9h,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,9c9h,9d9h,9s9h,Ah7c,Ah7d,Ah7s,Ah6c,Ah6d,Ah6s,Ac5h,Ad5h,As5h,Ah5c,Ah5d,5h3h,Ac3h,Ad3h,As3h,Ah3c,Ah3d,Ah3s,3c3h,3d3h,3s3h,3h2h,Ac2h,Ad2h,As2h,Ah2c,Ah2d,Ah2s,2c2h,2d2h,2s2h for 70.2% of his previous range or 296 combos

The river comes

:Jh :6h :5s :7h :3H:

Equity my range: 37.32% Theirs: 62.7%

Damn that is a bad card for us. If he was chasing with a FD he got there. He jams. I think he only does this with a flush on this board. I was contemplating whether he would do this with a straight but I don't think he does when the board is 4 to a flush. I have him jamming with all flushes tho

His jam is only a 68% pot bet so we only need to be good about 29% of the time. However, I really think V only has flushes so I actually have to fold out most of my range. I'd be calling down to the 3rd nut flush, which means I have the :QH:

AcAh,AdAh,AsAh,AhTh,Ah9h,KhTh,Kh9h,QhTh,Qh9h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,KhJc,KhJd,KhJs,QhJc,QhJd,QhJs,5h4h for 27.1% of my previous range or 21 combos

AcAh,AdAh,AsAh,AhKh,AhQh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah2h,AcKh,AdKh,AsKh,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,KcKh,KdKh,KsKh,KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh2h,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,KcQh,KdQh,KsQh,KhQc,KhQd,KhQs,QcQh,QdQh,QsQh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,KhJc,KhJd,KhJs,QhJc,QhJd,QhJs,AcTh,AdTh,AsTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,JcTh,JdTh,JsTh,TcTh,TdTh,TsTh,Th9h,Th8h,Ac9h,Ad9h,As9h,Ah9c,Ah9d,Ah9s,Jc9h,Jd9h,Js9h,9c9h,9d9h,9s9h,9h8h,Ac8h,Ad8h,As8h,Ah8c,Ah8d,Ah8s,Jc8h,Jd8h,Js8h,9c8h,9d8h,9s8h,9h8c,9h8d,9h8s,8c8h,8d8h,8s8h,Ah7c,Ah7d,Ah7s,8h7c,8h7d,8h7s,Ah6c,Ah6d,Ah6s,Ac5h,Ad5h,As5h,Ah5c,Ah5d,5c5h,5d5h,5h4h,Ac4h,Ad4h,As4h,Ah4c,Ah4d,Ah4s,4c4h,4d4h,4s4h,Ah3c,Ah3d,Ah3s,Ac2h,Ad2h,As2h,Ah2c,Ah2d,Ah2s,2c2h,2d2h,2s2h for 50% of his previous range or 148 combos

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