Fish's Hand of the Week[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
Hey guys, I'd love some analysis on this:

Middle stage of a pub tournament. Blinds are 1/2k and I'm second chip leader with 57k, but the differences in stack size are pretty low. I wake up with :Qh:Qc UTG. I raise to 6k and everyone folds except BB.

Flop is :4c:6c:9c . BB checks. I C-bet 6k. BB snap shoves over me for an extra 19k.

What would you do? Is there anything I should have done differently?

Extra info: In pub tournaments in Australia, most players are total pre-flop calling stations and can be found to be holding anything. As they're also less skilled players, plays like 3-bets and check raises are under-utilised.


  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2017
    The 2nd chip leader has 28.5BB? Yikes. Yeah that’s short. For sure.
    Thanks for the extra meta-info, because in my games I would be opening to 5k here with a bunch of hands here including this one, hopefully someone will shove over me with JJ-77/AK or worse and I like postflop play at that deeper SPR for C-betting, and it’s a good price to steal at.
    But yeah, if your opponents won’t adjust to your unbalanced play, get more money in pre with big pairs(if they stack-off with worse—otherwise you will be in akward spots regularly at an SPR setup by the bigger preflop bet). If they fold to C-bets broadways are good. If both happen then playing both is great.

    If the field knows how to shove the lone :AC:, then this flop bet of yours(with sizing)is magic.
    If this board scares a player like this, I don’t mind checking-back and watching a weak opponent act on the turn.

    If you know nothing about him, how bad can it be? Get it in. You’re ahead of JJ/TT/A9/xAc, and you have outs to beat non-club KK/AA, some made flushes, sets, and you have counterfeit outs and flush outs against two-pairs.
  •[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Yeah some players in these games will shove with the xAc, but I've never seen a check-shove in that spot. And from your feedback, I've realised that the player would likely have shoved pre with 88+.

    As played, my suspicion was that his most likely holding was a made flush. In that case, I had to figure out if he was holding the A or K. If not, I had outs. Other hands I put him on were a set, two pair, over-pair and top pair and TT+ (at the time). So most of what he had was beating me. What difference does our relative stack sizes make?
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2017
    I’ve anachronistically taken-out hands preflop that won’t be relevant later. I have included some offsuit hands a loose preflop caller might call with, PRE.

    If he has all his top pairs, not leading with them, you have 54% equity.

    If all of his top pairs led, instead of check-raising, you have 22.4%. This is a bug fuctuation.

    Let’s check his TP combos:
    His 38 combos of TP make up 53.5%(more than half his hands) of the proposed check-shoving range.

    So what if we think he folded his offsuit hands half the time PRE, and led out with his weakest offsuit hands?
    We have 42.4% equity against his check-shoving range when we remove these hands.

    The same with no offsuit combos is 35.7%.

    You were also wondering how many A/K-high flushes he had:
    29.6% of his check-shoving hands are flushes.
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2017
    So what equity do we need to call it off?
    We are calling 19K to win 44 (13k PRE+our 6 OTF+his 25[19 on top of the 6].
    —19 to 44, or rather 19 out of 63(we are providing 19k out of a 63k final pot with our call).
    We need 30.2% equity to call.

    32.6% equity


    He needs to play a small number of top pairs for this to be a profitable call. If we can add some A-high flush draws(ATo) that will also help.
  • MidnightFoxMidnightFox Red Chipper Posts: 321 ✭✭✭
    So what if we think he folded his offsuit hands half the time PRE, and led out with his weakest offsuit hands?
    *led-out with his weakest suited hands

  •[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    My goodness, I didn't know you'd written back. Thanks for all this effort! It's certainly very helpful and it helps me understand equity calculations. What app are you using there? I've tried to find a good equity calculator on the Play Store, but couldn't.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Flop (13,000) 964ccc
    Bb checks
    Hero bets 6k
    Bb shoves 25k

    Hero 19k to win 44k

    Does he have king high or ace high flush here more than 30%? If not than its a call and hope for the best.

    You can eliminate some of the higher flushes AcJc, AcKc that would jam preflop or possibly slow play the flop.

    Also think of his raise size as it's basically all in or fold... Can't really raise to like 15k with 10k behind.

    Ac9x, Kx9x, 44,66,99, 7c7x, 8c8x, TcTx, and flushes.

    I tank call here cause its a tourney... Don't see a fold here happening. Flushes small part of their range.
  •[email protected] Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Yeah you're right, and that's what happened. I decided in the end that I had to call. The hand was a long time ago, but from memory I think he had Tc9s. The runout bricked.

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