KK in BB - 1/2 NL Hand

OMG HeOMG He Red Chipper Posts: 52 ✭✭
I have been at this Table for about 3 hours now. I have not Limped once. Raising to 12/15/20 anytime I have entered a pot. Asian twentyish year old Villain is fairly new to the table, less than 45 minutes. He has played AK once, nothing out of the ordinary. He seems like he is playing scared money. He just keeps counting his chips he sat with $200, he has close to that.
Anywho:
I'm in the BB ($430) and hold :KS::KC: , there are 2 limps to Villain LP2 who raises to $15 folds to me, I make it $40
1 Limper folds, another SS ($65) calls $40 , Villain ($210) calls $40
(My thoughts here: SS could have any pair, not AA ,KK, QQ though any broadway, Big suited Ace possibly, Villain could have maybe AA,KK but If he had AA,KK, I would expect a 4bet, Maybe AK, Broadways, QQ through lower pair to 77? 88?)
POT = $120
SPR-Villain is >2
SPR-Hero is 3.5
SPR-Limper 0
Flop :TC::3S::5H:
(My thought here while at the table playing was, not worried about the SS. If Villain has an overpair, I should certainly be ahead, If he has Broadways, or AK I am still ahead. I do not expect Villain to have a set of 3's or a set of 5's. I'm losing t to TT, or AA and thats it)
So, my questions:
Would you bet here? If yes, How much?
If not, Disregarding the SS, if Villain shoves All in, do you call?


If anyone wants results, I can post later.

Comments

  • JoeOffsuitJoeOffsuit Red Chipper Posts: 408 ✭✭✭
    SPR for hero is meaningless. The effective SPR for each villain is what matters.

    Against an unknown, we are definitely getting it in with overcards with an SPR of 2. It doesn't sound like we have enough info to establish villain as a set-miner.

    As first to act against 3 players with such low SPR, IMHO betting, checking with intent to raise, or even check/calling the flop with intent to check/raise the turn all seem reasonable. On this board with this SPR, I want to get it all in and I am really not scared of free cards. If we bet, about half pot should be reasonable bet size on this dry board.

    If we check (or bet small) and get shoved, I think we we have to call with the information we have so far on this villain. Worst case he set mined us, and we still have 2 outs.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Flop (120) T53
    bb Hero covers
    Mp (25)
    HJ (170)

    Stack sizes right? Im just betting another 40 here (1\3) setting up a turn shove. Stacks are shallow and board is dry, only worry about A turn, maybe T turn.
  • pvhawkeyepvhawkeye Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    Agree with Austin, let's get a little money in (1/3 pot) but wouldn't want them to see a free one even if the board is about as dry as it can get. Make the SS shrug and give you the rest of his stack with his small pp's or top pair before a Broadway comes out.

    Against the larger stack I think we are ahead here against his entire range except a set of tens. Keeping it small allows him the chance to try bluffing us or value shipping if he thinks QQ-JJ, AT is ahead.
  • Adam WheelerAdam Wheeler Red Chipper Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭✭
    Practically any realistic bet size on flop is commiting Asian V. We ain't going anywhere when he calls the flop.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    edited December 2017
    99-77 and AK are the hands we don't want to lose with a big bet on flop.

    He's likely folding all other unpaired broadway to any size bet.

    He's likely calling or shoving over any size bet with QQ-JJ, and10x... so a small bet here with the intent to get it in on turn.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Scenario A) You cbet $40, short stack calls $25, V calls. Pot = $225, and V has $120 behind.

    Turn bricks, you shove. From V's perspective, you just went from a $40 to a $120 bet -- that means, from V's perspective, that you were suckering V in on the flop to try to force V to call on the turn. V folds most pocket pairs lower than a Q that didn't hit a set.


    Scenario B) You cbet $60, short stack calls $25, V calls. Pot = $265, and V has $100 behind.

    Turn bricks, you shove. From V's perspective, he "only" has $100 left, and you're shoving with all your range, hit or miss. V calls with 99 and reaches into his wallet while the dealer turns and burns.


    Yes, in Scenario B, you do make it a bit easier for V to fold on the cbet. But, MOST hands that V will call $40 with, V will call $60 with. And, by then, it is nearly impossible for V to fold the turn.

    (Feel free to play around with betting $50 or $55 or $65 -- the exact $60 is less important than the message.) Final benefit: When you brick this flop two orbits later but bet $80 to get folds, that looks pretty obvious if you bet $40 this hand when you were way ahead... But, you can bet the same $60 and keep them unsure.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Scenario A) You cbet $40, short stack calls $25, V calls. Pot = $225, and V has $120 behind.

    Turn bricks, you shove. From V's perspective, you just went from a $40 to a $120 bet -- that means, from V's perspective, that you were suckering V in on the flop to try to force V to call on the turn. V folds most pocket pairs lower than a Q that didn't hit a set.


    Scenario B) You cbet $60, short stack calls $25, V calls. Pot = $265, and V has $100 behind.

    Turn bricks, you shove. From V's perspective, he "only" has $100 left, and you're shoving with all your range, hit or miss. V calls with 99 and reaches into his wallet while the dealer turns and burns.


    Yes, in Scenario B, you do make it a bit easier for V to fold on the cbet. But, MOST hands that V will call $40 with, V will call $60 with. And, by then, it is nearly impossible for V to fold the turn.

    (Feel free to play around with betting $50 or $55 or $65 -- the exact $60 is less important than the message.) Final benefit: When you brick this flop two orbits later but bet $80 to get folds, that looks pretty obvious if you bet $40 this hand when you were way ahead... But, you can bet the same $60 and keep them unsure.

    Lay out the combos of AQ and AK compared to JJ and QQ. 77-99 may not continue to a decent size cbet. This is why 1\3 or small cbets in 3 bet pots are growing In popularity. Keeps ranges wide and gain extra value while not allowing villain to play perfect. Just bet AK here for 40 as well. Leaves them guessing.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Scenario A) You cbet $40, short stack calls $25, V calls. Pot = $225, and V has $120 behind.

    Turn bricks, you shove. From V's perspective, you just went from a $40 to a $120 bet -- that means, from V's perspective, that you were suckering V in on the flop to try to force V to call on the turn. V folds most pocket pairs lower than a Q that didn't hit a set.


    Scenario B) You cbet $60, short stack calls $25, V calls. Pot = $265, and V has $100 behind.

    Turn bricks, you shove. From V's perspective, he "only" has $100 left, and you're shoving with all your range, hit or miss. V calls with 99 and reaches into his wallet while the dealer turns and burns.


    Yes, in Scenario B, you do make it a bit easier for V to fold on the cbet. But, MOST hands that V will call $40 with, V will call $60 with. And, by then, it is nearly impossible for V to fold the turn.

    (Feel free to play around with betting $50 or $55 or $65 -- the exact $60 is less important than the message.) Final benefit: When you brick this flop two orbits later but bet $80 to get folds, that looks pretty obvious if you bet $40 this hand when you were way ahead... But, you can bet the same $60 and keep them unsure.

    Lay out the combos of AQ and AK compared to JJ and QQ. 77-99 may not continue to a decent size cbet. This is why 1\3 or small cbets in 3 bet pots are growing In popularity. Keeps ranges wide and gain extra value while not allowing villain to play perfect. Just bet AK here for 40 as well. Leaves them guessing.

    True.

    And... It's essentially risking the greater likelihood of V calling $40 than $60 to get a greater likelihood of V calling on the turn. IMO, I think that's a gamble well worth considering.

    Note that I didn't say that it's the absolute preferred play. But, if you think that V is very likely to call $40 but probably going to fold to the turn shove but it's closer to 50-50 that V calls the $60 and then almost calls the turn shove, then the $60 would be better as a default. That's the math point.

    If that applies in this specific scenario or not, I'm not sure. Again, I think that it's, at a minimum, worth factoring into your decision.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    OMG H wrote: »
    I'm in the BB ($430) and hold :KS::KC: , there are 2 limps to Villain LP2 who raises to $15 folds to me, I make it $40
    1 Limper folds, another SS ($65) calls $40 , Villain ($210) calls $40
    (My thoughts here: SS could have any pair, not AA ,KK, QQ though any broadway, Big suited Ace possibly, Villain could have maybe AA,KK but If he had AA,KK, I would expect a 4bet, Maybe AK, Broadways, QQ through lower pair to 77? 88?)
    POT = $120
    SPR-Villain is >2
    SPR-Hero is 3.5
    SPR-Limper 0

    Maybe if we get this cleaned up, things will be more clear.

    Your stack and SPR are irrelevant because it's effective stacks we're interested in.

    Limper SPR not 0 yet, but with pot at $120 and him with $25 left it's best to think of a side pot between you and villain and hand basically done with Limper.

    Your SPR and villain SPR are the same at about 1.4. In other words, this hand is basically over with villain as well. Get the money in with whatever way you determine best. You ask if you should call if villain shoves. Any scenario where villain even has the chance to shove and you folded is silly. You should be betting the flop, and that would leave a ridiculously small amount of money left to be played.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Octavian I wrote: »
    I will bet 1/3 pot OTF and check/raise shove OTT. If he shoves the turn after my failed attempt to c/r, well,.. I may fold if he's kind of player that bluffs infrequently.

    OMG
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Octavian I wrote: »
    It depends how big the SPR is

    Well we already know that. SPR is a flop metric.
    Octavian I wrote: »
    This is very situational and hard game. Even if I would be in the hand I don't claim perfection.

    Really? Even you? Wow, this must be a very hard game!

    Why are you even talking about folding to anything here? It's nonsense. Even if he flopped a set and we pay him off, we still beat him at this game.

    We'll play with $210 stacks. I'll take KK, you take TT. We put in $40 preflop and play it out. I promise to shove into you every flop even if you flop a set+, and you can call if you flop a T and fold if you don't. You want to play that game all night long?

    .12( (.91)($210) - (.09)($210) ) - .88($40) = -$15 for you

    (Even if you flop a set+ of tens, I still have 9% equity in the runout.)

    And that assumes that the only hand villain ever puts money in with is a set+. Of course he will also put his money in with JJ, QQ, AT, and various other things he decides is worth a shove or call depending on god only knows what. So our absolute worst case scenario here is +$15, and of course we're making more than that in the long run. We're never folding.

    This hand is over. The only thing that could have stopped it was an A on the flop and someone shoving into me that I believed (and I don't mean Limper).
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Octavian I wrote: »
    It depends how big the SPR is

    Well we already know that. SPR is a flop metric.
    Octavian I wrote: »
    This is very situational and hard game. Even if I would be in the hand I don't claim perfection.

    Really? Even you? Wow, this must be a very hard game!

    Why are you even talking about folding to anything here? It's nonsense. Even if he flopped a set and we pay him off, we still beat him at this game.

    We'll play with $210 stacks. I'll take KK, you take TT. We put in $40 preflop and play it out. I promise to shove into you every flop even if you flop a set+, and you can call if you flop a T and fold if you don't. You want to play that game all night long?

    .12( (.91)($210) - (.09)($210) ) - .88($40) = -$15 for you

    (Even if you flop a set+ of tens, I still have 9% equity in the runout.)

    And that assumes that the only hand villain ever puts money in with is a set+. Of course he will also put his money in with JJ, QQ, AT, and various other things he decides is worth a shove or call depending on god only knows what. So our absolute worst case scenario here is +$15, and of course we're making more than that in the long run. We're never folding.

    This hand is over. The only thing that could have stopped it was an A on the flop and someone shoving into me that I believed (and I don't mean Limper).

    I feel the love :)


    I played a similar hand tonight, but flop was 838 and I checked it through. Turn came a 4 putting a bdfd on the board and villain bet and I flatted again. River was a 9 and he checked, so I made a polarizing, close to pot bet because it looks like a missed flush draw and he made the hero call.

    With your hand I could see a small bet or a check raise. Some frequency of both or a bigger bet as moist pointed out depending on how sticky villain is.

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