Hand #17
Just looking at the bonus question at the end of this hand in the workbook and I was wondering how we calculate $EV in a spot where we still have chips left if we call and lose. It would be much simpler if we either won the hand or busted. Thanks
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Post flop :Qc :9h :3c
Like Sweeney says, the BU’s range connects with the flop and he CBs 80% of the time, so he would CB with QTs, KT and As5c. The BU CBs, 4BB and I check call. His range narrows to 45% of previous (101) AA-QQ,33,AQo,KQo,QJo-Q8o,JTo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q8s,JTs,AcKc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac2c,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Jc9c,Jc8c,Tc9c,Tc8c,Tc7c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,7c5c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c.
My hand is best 49% of the time against his range and he is offering pot odds of 37%. Nonetheless I call.
Turn :Kd
The LAg/TAg on the BU is barreling on this scare card with a bet of 8BB. I’ve already taken him off 66 but not Qx; he is on 69% of previous (61) AA-QQ,33,KQo,Q9o,JTo,KQs,Q9s,JTs,AcKc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac2c,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Jc9c,Jc8c,Tc9c,Tc8c,Tc7c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,7c5c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c.
I check-call, figuring this is the time stand up to aggression. My hand is best 34% of the time against his range and he is offering 35% pot odds.
River :7d
I check and the BU barrels with 22BB. He is on a range of 68% previous (47) AA-QQ,33,KQo,Q9o,JTo,KQs,Q9s,JTs,AcKc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,9c7c He would have checked behind with Qj, Kc6C and AJ.
25 of his combos beat me, he loses with 22 combos. He wins 53% of the time and loses 47%. Knowing his pattern of aggression, I shove my remaining stack of 47BB. ICMizer gives me a +6908$Push.