Hand #17

Grant T

Just looking at the bonus question at the end of this hand in the workbook and I was wondering how we calculate $EV in a spot where we still have chips left if we call and lose. It would be much simpler if we either won the hand or busted. Thanks

Ben Hayles

If you look at my very first video for Red Chip, $EV calculation is broken down (it's challenging). When you call and lose, you need to work out how far your equity in the prize money drops. It won't drop to zero when you don't bust (or you cash a prize), but it will drop by an amount that you can calculate.

Grant T

Thanks Ben much appreciated will go have a look at the video

Mark Fleming

Preflop: The description of the BU is LAg but the illustration labels him a solid TAg, regardless he is likely to try stealing with a wide range that does not include 94s, 72o or 75o; 45% (552) AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. BU opens with 3BB and SB folds and I call from the BB with QTs.

Post flop

Like Sweeney says, the BU’s range connects with the flop and he CBs 80% of the time, so he would CB with QTs, KT and As5c. The BU CBs, 4BB and I check call. His range narrows to 45% of previous (101) AA-QQ,33,AQo,KQo,QJo-Q8o,JTo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q8s,JTs,AcKc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac2c,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Jc9c,Jc8c,Tc9c,Tc8c,Tc7c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,7c5c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c.
My hand is best 49% of the time against his range and he is offering pot odds of 37%. Nonetheless I call.

Turn

The LAg/TAg on the BU is barreling on this scare card with a bet of 8BB. I’ve already taken him off 66 but not Qx; he is on 69% of previous (61) AA-QQ,33,KQo,Q9o,JTo,KQs,Q9s,JTs,AcKc,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac2c,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Jc9c,Jc8c,Tc9c,Tc8c,Tc7c,9c8c,9c7c,8c7c,8c6c,7c6c,7c5c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c.

I check-call, figuring this is the time stand up to aggression. My hand is best 34% of the time against his range and he is offering 35% pot odds.

River

I check and the BU barrels with 22BB. He is on a range of 68% previous (47) AA-QQ,33,KQo,Q9o,JTo,KQs,Q9s,JTs,AcKc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,9c7c He would have checked behind with Qj, Kc6C and AJ.

25 of his combos beat me, he loses with 22 combos. He wins 53% of the time and loses 47%. Knowing his pattern of aggression, I shove my remaining stack of 47BB. ICMizer gives me a +6908$Push.