8s7s EV

Jaymes BJaymes B Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
Hello,

I still don't have my head wrapped around 'EV' yet. Can someone please let me know if this was a good call or not according to EV.

$1/$2 game. Hero is in the big blind.

UG+2 raises to 4.

BUT calls.

SB raises $14 and is all in.

Hero calls $14 with 8s7s.

UG+2 raises ti $36.

BUT folds.

Pot is now $68 and is $22 more for the Hero to call. Should the Hero call?

Comments

  • AkashicAkashic Red Chipper Posts: 54 ✭✭
    edited January 2
    Need information on stack sizes. Calling from the BB with 87s is usually not going to be profitable in this raised pot scenario. You are looking at a smaller raise size of $14 that is certainly going to get called behind you and that hand plays way better in position. If stack sizes are on the smaller side, high card hands tend to be favorable because of the big pair strengths they bring. So medium connectors, even though suited, are not great here. The stack sizes would have to be very high to even consider a call.

    The re-raise shove happened right before you, so you have to now think about the people behind you. Will they call $10 more or fold? The answer is... they will call it! The min-raise to $4 is commonly used in live play as a ploy to get some sort of raise so they can re-pop it with AA. This also happens with limps. The fact that it did happen, gives you information on his hand. You can assume he has KK-AA here. So that range vs your 87s means you have 22% equity here. If you plan on chasing for $36 a pop with bluffing hands that are out of position, you will lose your bankroll quickly.
  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2
    I think you are thinking of implied odds and as @Akashic mentioned we need to know how much players have left but in general calling 4bets when you and your opponents are not super deep like 250bb+ with 78 is not a +EV play. In fact calling any raises hoping to just hit with 78s without a plan for when you miss is not +EV. EV in simple terms is the (% chance of winning x the amount you can win) - (%chance of losing × the amount you can lose). Implied odds means you are calling the bet not to win the amount of the bet but your opponents entire stack so....
    The odds of flopping a straight or flush is less than 1%. The odds of flopping 2pair or trips is 2% and 1.35% respectively so let's give you for examples sake 5% chance of hitting 2pair or better. 95% you lose $22 and 5% of the time you win $68 (.05 x $68) - (.95x $22)=-17.5 meaning you can expect to lose $17.50 in the long run each time you make this play however with implied odds if you are calling $22 with the intention of winning a stack of greater than ~$420 meaning you are getting 19 to 1 in implied odds than it becomes a better situation.

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