Hand 33

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
OK back at it after the holidays.

Hand starts with Hero opening it up in the HJ for 3x and Villain cold calling us on the BU. Everyone else folds. V is running 17/13 on 263 hands. Seems somewhat nitty with a 3-bet % of only 1.1%. He's just 3-betting me with AA-KK and AK basically.

Mine
AA-44,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s for 17% form or 26 combos

Theirs
QQ-55,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s for 11.2% form or 148 combos

The flop comes
:Ac:6d:2c

Equity of my range: 54.3%
Their equity: 45.6%

I guess I'd call this flop semi-dry. It's got a flush draw and an A but there aren't a ton of combos in either of our ranges that really nailed this flop. We could both be drawing tho. We bet 66% pot and he calls. Of note is that V has a FvCBet of 14%! That's really low and even tho we don't have a huge sample size, it seems he likes to float IP. It's kind of weird because his VPIP/PFR makes me think I have some FE but his postflop stats make me think otherwise. Because of that I want to be betting here with a pretty balanced range. I think he calls me with basically everything given he's IP and the texture. I think in reality he folds a few of his non-made hands but for simplicity I had him continuing with 100%.

Mine
AA-66,AKo-AJo,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c,6c5c for 58.8% of previous range or 117 combos

Theirs
QQ-55,AQo-AJo,KQo,QJo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s for 100% of his previous range or 148 combos

The Turn comes

:Ac:6d:2c:5h

My equity: 67.4%
Their equity: 31.7%

I think our equity went up a good bit because he floats too much.

We again bet about 2/3 pot and he calls us. Because I think he probably floats the flop too much, in this spot, I think I would fire a second barrel at the micros pretty much always. If his VPIP/PFR tell me he's a little nitty and his stats say he pretty much always calls the flop, I like a second barrel every time. The CvTCB just can't be accurate. I refuse to believe it haha. It's not likely to have a big sample size. I have him folding out a lot of his non made hands here but when I did the analysis it still had him continuing with 69.9% of his previous range. When he calls us again we're likely in trouble. He's more than likely got something strongish.

Mine
AA-66,AKo-AJo,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c,6c5c for 100% of my previous range or 114 combos

Theirs
QQ-55,AQo-AJo,AQs-ATs,87s,76s,Tc9c,9c8c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc for 69.9% of his previous range or 82 combos

The river comes

:Ac:6d:2c:5h:6C:

Our equity: 93.7%
Theirs: 6.2%

Interesting that the flush getting in is so good for us equity-wise. I almost feel like that isn't right.

This is where things get a little funky. We check, he bets about 2/3 pot and we call. Now I do think that I would do this with very strong hand OTR hoping to induce a float from him. I'd probably check with quads, boats and strong flushes hoping he takes a stab at the pot. However, if he did I would likely raise him after that. So I don't think I take this line with the tippy top of my range.

I'd probably take this line with TP and some more middling pairs like KK-77 but that seems pretty marginal given the board. Not sure how much bluff catching would be worth it here. Very tough to come up with what hands I would do that with because I think if I had some of these middling pairs that had a flush blocker I would continue to barrel. Same goes for the TP hands.

I think he value bets his sets+ and stabs with his air. Takes showdown with everything in between.

Mine
KK-77,AKo-AJo,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s for 87.5% of my previous range or 100 combos

Theirs
66-55,87s,76s,Tc9c,9c8c,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc for 20.5% of his previous range or 16 combos

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