Call river with second pair?

MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 85 ✭✭
edited January 3 in Live Poker Hands
Action is from a live $1/2 NLHE private game. The table is loose, passive mostly. Preflop raises keep getting 3-4 callers, regardless of whether they are 10 or 15 dollars. Not many preflop three-bets. I've played with many of these players before and a few are consistently loose-aggressive.

:AC: :Tc on Button.

Two limpers. I raise to $12. One caller, a relatively loose player, often a calling station, but sometimes makes aggressive moves with draws. He's not particularly good and I've won pots from him in the past when he stuck around with weak pairs or draws with poor odds. I have about $250 and have villain covered.

Pot is $27.
Flop :Kc :6d :2S:
We both check.

Turn :8C:
So now I have a nut flush draw. I bet $15. Villain raises to $30. With 9 flush outs and three ace outs, I suspect I’ve got at least 24% equity here; plus there’s a chance he’s just chasing a weaker draw. I call, thinking an ace or a club could give me a winner.

Pot is now $87.
River: :Th

Villain bets $65. He's all in.

I tank. I review the hand in my mind, and remind myself of those Red Chip articles about folding less on the river. Trying not to be so nitty on the river. I’m only losing to a King here, and it seems like with a king he should have bet the flop. His betting suggests he might not be very strong. Maybe he was raising with a missed club draw and this is an attempt to push me off the hand? Maybe my ten is good? According to the breakeven poker math, his 3/4 pot river bet is worth a call if it might be good 30% of the time. Am I good at least 3 out of 10 times here? Or would this just be a dumb hero call?

What's your play here?

In case you're curious, here's my decision & the outcome:
I call. He yawns and show KQ.

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    So a few questions to ask yourself about this player. Is he really going to be betting top pair OOP against the pre flop raiser? What hands are you betting the flop with here. Should A10cc be one of them? Also when developing a river calling range you have to look at what hands and draws you are blocking. I think river is a fold against this player type while holding key club blockers.
  • Fernando TFernando T Red Chipper Posts: 81 ✭✭
    Although you played heads up, I thought you should raise at least to $20 considered the kind of player you played against.

    Seems to me he just didn’t dunk bet the flop (if a I had top pair I wouldn’t). After that he demonstrated a strong hand (check raise the turn and bet the river).

    I would call the turn raise.

    Easy fold in the river
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
    What range do you give him for a check min raise on the turn? K628cc. Thinking some Kx that is kinda weird line. 22, 66,88, 86s, 9c7c, 7c5c, 5c4c and i think thats about it. I don't think T on the river is good cause its unlikely that he raises 8x on the turn. You really only beat two combos.

    If you had AK would you bet this flop? You have plenty of back doors to barrel on, any high card or club can be a double barrel. Remember your betting your range as pfr not your hand.
  • MattPMattP Red Chipper Posts: 85 ✭✭
    So as played, sounds like the consensus is that the turn call was justified, but the river call... not so much...
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bluffs diminish, thin value rises in this sequence of actions - the natural laws of betting.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 676 ✭✭✭
    1/2 pot Cbet would have solved all your problems
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
    Sully wrote: »
    1/2 pot Cbet would have solved all your problems

    Not exactly, bases off short stack sizes. Cbet would of helped but if he cbets and checks back then after being called and then villain donk bets river its a tough decision. I wouldn't mind cbet and jam turn to put kx in a tough spot. Gain fold equity from all other pairs
  • RoblivionRoblivion Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    Anyone else like a check, check, call line here?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    Anyone else like a check, check, call line here?

    Why do you want them to realize their equity for free and cap your range?
  • RoblivionRoblivion Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    V only has $95 left after the flop. Against this villain with this stack, I'm nore interested in realizing my ace high equity and not getting shut out when he decides to get squirrelly and jam over the top of my c-bet than I am in shutting out the little bit of equity he has with hands he actually folds.

    With this stack size, an uncapped range just doesn't provide as much leverage for taking down the pot on later streets.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 676 ✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Sully wrote: »
    1/2 pot Cbet would have solved all your problems

    Not exactly, bases off short stack sizes. Cbet would of helped but if he cbets and checks back then after being called and then villain donk bets river its a tough decision. I wouldn't mind cbet and jam turn to put kx in a tough spot. Gain fold equity from all other pairs

    Completely disagree. Once cbet called I would not put another penny in unless I make a pair of Aces or better. Short stack villain is committed on flop call. Betting or jamming the turn looks like suicide to me. Villain will call, villain would have no real money left

    If turn checks thru after called cbet and face river donk, easy fold. You're beat, move on to the next hand.

    Facing a short stack caller with your iso range was a bad event to begin with, let's not make it worse by doubling the fool up

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