Hand 35

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
Blind v blind is always fun. Usually pretty aggressive poker.

Hand starts with the SB opening for 3x into us and we call. He's running 31/21 on only 70 hands. With only 70 hands I can't do much with these stats except maybe consider him a little loose based on his VPIP/PFR.

He'd be opening pretty wide here with only one person his steal has to work against. Conversly I'll be 3-betting and calling pretty wide due to my better pot odds and position. His range is much stronger at this point because I'd 3-bet so many value and playable hands whereas his range contains all the nutted combos.

Mine
88-22,ATo-A2o,KTo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,KTs-K7s,QTs-Q7s,J9s-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,65s-63s,54s-53s,43s for 30.3% form or 402 combos

Theirs
AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s for 41.2% form or 546 combos

The flop comes

:Kd :Ts :8h

My ranges equity: 45.8%
Theirs: 54.5%

Semi-dry flop comes. K definitely favors him as he has more of them in his range. What's interesting tho is that he CR's me. Normally I'd expect a CR on a wetter flop than this.

I think many players CR with sets but personally I don't like that. I'd rather keep all their junk in with such as strong hand and use hands like two pair and overpairs that don't have many outs to improve as my value CR's. He could CR me on this flop with OESD's but there aren't many good semi-bluffs he could use here.

I'd be calling him with my OESD's and TP+. Being IP and getting the odds I am I think it's OK to call with OESD's in this spot.

Mine
88,KTo-K9o,QJo,J9o,KTs-K7s,J9s,T8s,97s for 17.9% of previous range or 63 combos

Theirs
AA,KTo,QJo,J9o,KTs,K8s,QJs,J9s,T8s,97s for 11.5% of previous range or 55 combos

The turn comes

:Kd :Ts :8h :QD:

My ranges equity: 51.2%
Theirs: 48.78%

A lot of straight draws complete on this flop and it appears the Q is better for me than it is for him given the equity calculation. At this point his range is still stronger tho imo as I'm the one doing all the calling.

He checks I bet and he calls. I think I'd do this with my OESD's, FD's and my TP+ hands. I think he calls me with basically value hands at this point. I have him folding out his draws now given that he's OOP and not getting the right odds. His calling OOP after so much action is definitely a sign of significant strength.

Mine
88,KTo-K9o,QJo,J9o,KTs-K7s,J9s,T8s,97s for 100% of previous range or 63 combos

Theirs
AA,KTo,J9o,KTs,K8s,J9s,T8s for 68.6% of his previous range or 38 combos

The river comes

:Kd :Ts :8h :QD: :6C:

My ranges equity: 35%
Theirs: 64%

River is a brick and the equity advantage flips majorly in his favor. Again, he checks I bet 2/3 pot and he calls. I think I bet with TP+ although I'd probably consider checking back with TP. He calls me with overpair and better.

Mine:
88,KTo-K9o,J9o,KTs-K7s,J9s,T8s,97s for 85% of previous range or 53 combos

Theirs:
AA,KTo,J9o,KTs,K8s,J9s,T8s for 100% of previous range or 38 combos

Comments

  • Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 100 ✭✭
    I realized shortly after I posted this that I screwed up the river. V would raise the river with his straights

    Basically:

    his range is stronger preflop because I didn't 3-bet

    His range is stronger flop because he CR'd

    His range is stronger turn because he continues after we float him

    But on the river our range is probably stronger because it still contains the nuts (straights)

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