Hand 37

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
Getting a break on this hand since I get to analyze pretty tight ranges.

We open 3x UTG and the SB calls and the BB squeezes for 3.25x (seems smallish for a squeeze OOP imo). We call.

BB has stats of 17/13 on 808 hands. He has a 3-bet % of 5.4% so he's a bit of a nit. He's also squeezing OOP vs an UTG open. He's 3-betting very linear here. The fact that SB called might make him want to squeeze ever so slightly more than normal but not much.

Mine
JJ-77,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs for 7% form and 94 combos

Theirs
AA-JJ,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs for 4.2% form and 56 combos

The flop comes
:AS::7H::5C:

My ranges equity: 25.12%
Theirs: 74.87%

The A coming on the flop is huge for him. That hurts me a lot since he has many more A's in his range than I do. His range is significantly stronger than mine at this point since I failed to 4-bet pre.

Definitely somewhat of a dry flop otherwise. He checks and we go for a float and bet 50% and tbh I think this size is a bit weird too. Because it's a 3-bet flop and it's dry AND the A is way more likely to have hit him than me I like betting smaller with my whole range here - something like 1/3-40% pot I think would be more appropriate for a couple reasons.

I'd be betting here with my TP+ as well as BDFD's (what are my bluffs on this flop?)

Anyway, he calls us and we're likely in deep shiz at this point.

I think he calls us with TP+. I think he'd even check-call with top set here since I would likely have almost nothing. He'd be wise to check when he crushes the flop hoping I try to bluff.

Mine
77,AQo-AJo,AQs-ATs,KhQh,KcQc,KsQs,KhJh,KcJc,KsJs,QhJh,QcJc,QsJs,JhTh,JcTc,JsTs for 51.2% of previous range or 42 combos

Theirs
AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs for 60% of previous range or 27 combos

The turn comes
:AS::7H::5C::9S:

Because I have some bluffs in my range whereas he doesn't (he squeezed pre, check-called the flop and he's a nit OOP), his range is much stronger right now. However, the 9s is great for me because I picked up some equity with my bluffs. I now continue barreling with my double spade hands.

We again bet half pot which he check-calls. He seems to be in call down mode. I don't think he'd let go of any hands here.

My ranges equity: 19.48%
Theirs: 80%

Mine
77,AQo-AJo,AQs-ATs,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,JsTs for 81% of previous range or 34 combos

Theirs
AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs for 100% of previous range or 27 combos

The river comes
:AS::7H::5C::9S::6S:

My ranges equity: 24.79%
Theirs: 75.2%

Praise the Lord Hallelujah my spade semi-bluffs got there! Unfortunately that isn't a ton of combos and I think that's reflective in the very small bump I got in equity advantage. His range is still stronger up until this point because it consists of entirely made hands whereas mine didn't. He can also easily outkick me if I get to this point with something like AQ.

We shove all-in which is only about 66-75% pot and he calls. I think we both do this with our whole range at this point because we're both very pot committed.

You could argue that the flush getting in would scare a nit but because it's a backdoor draw I doubt he'd be that concerned about it. I think this would scare a fish more than a competent nit.

Mine
77,AQo-AJo,AQs-ATs,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,JsTs for 100% of previous range or 34 combos

Theirs
AA,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs for 100% of previous range or 27 combos

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