Hand 38

Brendan RBrendan R Red Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
Hand starts with hero opening from the HJ for 3x and the BU cold calling us. BU is running 24/18 on 335 hands. He has a 3-bet stat of 9% and he has the bigger stack at the table. We're up against a solid reg and we're OOP. Great.

That said, his C2Bet stat is 23% from that position and he seems pretty loose. Might be a fun hand.

Mine
AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s for 16.% form or 218 combos

Theirs
JJ-22,AJo-A8o,KJo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,AJs-ATs,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s,32s for 21.2% form or 280 combos

The flop comes
:AC::7H::5H:

As of right now my range is stronger both because he didn't 3-bet pre and because he's a little too loose calling from that position.

My ranges equity: 60.6%
Theirs: 39.39%

We c-bet about 66% pot and he raises us a little less than 3x. I'm not sure I'm a big fan of the c-bet here with a lot of our range given that this board is somewhat dynamic. Lots of cards could come that complete both straights and flushes but no overcards can come, which is why I said somewhat dynamic. We call his raise.

I think he'd raise us on this board with strong draws like OESD's, FD's and better as well as TP+ (possibly for protection).

I debated for a while whether I would call here with FD's. I really don't like that fact that I'm OOP vs a competent opponent because that means I don't think I'd get much value when the flush actually gets in so my implied odds are a bit limited. Ultimately I decided I'd call for at least one street with the FD's. I'd also call with TP+.

Mine
AA,77,55,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,JhTh,Th9h,9h8h for 34.6% of previous range or 65 combos

Theirs
77,55,AJo-A8o,AJs-ATs,86s,75s,43s,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,JhTh,Jh9h,Jh8h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,3h2h for 28.9% of previous range or 73 combos

The turn comes
:AC::7H::5H::JD:

My ranges equity: 61.32%
Theirs: 38.67%

The J doesn't change much at all and my range is still stronger here because I've showed considerably strength calling a flop raise from OOP and he has more bluffs in his range.

We check, he bets and we call. At this point I'm folding out my FD's and continuing with everything else. I think he continues betting with his whole range.

Of note is that Villain has a W$SD of 79%. He must be running very good over the 335 hands I have on him.

Mine
AA,77,55,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s for 90.3% of previous range or 54 combos

Theirs
77,55,AJo-A8o,AJs-ATs,86s,75s,43s,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,JhTh,Jh9h,Jh8h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,3h2h for 100% of previous range or 67 combos

The river comes
:AC::7H::5H::JD::8H:

The flush completing is huge for him since he still has that in his range and you can see that from the huge gain in equity he got there. Of course I folded out my FD's on the last street. At least I still have all my Ah's.

I think overall our ranges are closer at this point but mine probably appears stronger since it's uncapped and has called a raise and a bet from OOP. If I don't have a flush here I'm probably pretty pissed.

My ranges equity: 51.42%
Theirs: 48.57%

We jam all in which isn't even a pot sized bet. It's $36 into $41 so Villain only needs about 32% equity. He calls.

This is where using Flopzilla gets frustrating for me because in this spot I would probably jam with my sets and top pair hands that block the nut flush and I can't figure out how to have Flopzilla specifically filter those ones out/in. There's probably a way tho. I'd jam with any of my suited A's as well.

I think he calls with any flush. I think he would sometimes call with his few sets that he has ( depending on how loose/aggressive he thinks I am) but would often let those go too.

Mine
AhAd,AhAs,AhKs,AhKd,AhKc,AhQd,AhQs,AhQc,AhJs,AhJc,,AKh-ATh,A5h-A2h for 44.4% of previous range or 24 combos

Theirs
AhJh,AhTh,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,4h3h,3h2h for 20.6% of previous range or 13 combos

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