Call based on SPR or fold based on V range and play?

moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
Live, 1/3. Hero has $165, V has Hero covered.

What I know about V:
-V limp/calls pre-flop very widely.
-Pre-flop, V opens very rarely; the only times that I have seen V's hands after opening pre-flop, he has had hands in the top-left corner of the hand chart (i.e., TT+, AQ+).

-Post-flop, V check-calls very widely. V has built a big stack hitting some hands post-frop.
-Post-flop, V plays similarly to how he plays pre-flop: He tends to bet when he has a big hand and check/call or fold when he doesn't. V has yet to be 3bet pre-flop this session.



THE HAND:
V opens in MP to $15.
Folds to Hero with :Ac:Kd on the button. Hero raises to $55.
V calls.
Everyone but V folds.

Flop is :Kc:Qc:QS: . V donk shoves.


THE DECISION:
Based on SPR, this is snap-call.

Based on my range analysis and play of V, though, should this be a fold?

-It's unlikely that V has AA or KK (and I'm crushed if V does anyway).
-Similarly, given V's post-flop play, it's unlikely that he has JT. I think that would fall into V's check-call range.

-Given the fact that V:
1) raised pre-flop -- limiting him to the best of hands;
2) called my 3bet -- limiting him more; and
3) donk-shoved -- a sign that V has a strong/made hand

...should I be folding? My hand vs. V's tight range here only wins around 22% of time. So, is this a rare occasion to ignore SPR?

Results later.

Comments

  • TravisTravis Red Chipper Posts: 455 ✭✭✭
    I snap call. SPR makes it a profitable play, true. But unless there is I high hand promotion why would villain ever bet here. The only hands that don't want action are under pairs, JJ, 1010, and weak Ks.. like KJ or K10.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    I cry about it a bit and call. He's just gotta have some weird crap a small % of the time and we are fine. If he had quads, why shove? Why shove trips? Maybe he thinks he can get someone to lay down AK or AA by shoving JJ or 10's. He could even just be thinking about his hand and not his stack and call with like J10cc or something.
  • star681star681 Red Chipper Posts: 399 ✭✭
    edited January 2018
    snap call,i bet he had AJc, or KK, orrrrr QJ, hmmmmmmmmmmm QTs, call based on curiosity
  • Zero CoolZero Cool Red Chipper Posts: 271 ✭✭✭
    -Pre-flop, V opens very rarely; the only times that I have seen V's hands after opening pre-flop, he has had hands in the top-left corner of the hand chart (i.e., TT+, AQ+).

    Given this info I'm not sure why were 3-betting especially to this size. With our stack size, villains range, and your read that "Post-flop, V check-calls very widely" we will have zero play-ability post flop and are forced to hit a hand against him.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the preflop range is a little tight because he is opening from MP. I like the sizing preflop, but remember you have to jam almost any flop for a 1 spr.

    Flop :KC::QC::QS:

    2 combos of KJs, two combos JTs, 1 combo AsJs, 1 combo AsTs, .... Ya kinda sucks calling here vs so few combos that we beat. The donk shove doesn't make a whole lot of sense though, especially since you block nut flush combos.

    I have hard time finding a fold or a call. Here...leaning on a sigh call though cause you do have some equity. Maybe villain us a genius and shoves this Qx into you.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Thank you, everyone! I think that y'all highlighted perfectly the conflicting thoughts going through my head.

    @Zero Cool: I gave that consideration a lot of thought. First of all, I did want to isolate V here to be able to apply pressure to him, something that he hasn't experienced yet. If he were to shove pre-flop, then I could actually fold pretty comfortably: he is most likely only shoving with AA or KK (yes, one of those). Otherwise, if I flat call, then I'm in a brutal guessing game situation without a deep enough stack to put pressure on were he to have a monster.

    In addition, were he to have, say, JJ or TT, he might even find a fold. If not, then there is a strong chance that he check/folds the flop, even with QQ or with AK if the board misses. By raising, then I can represent a stronger hand than he has in his range: he's the type to likely credit me with AA or KK.

    In the end, I just couldn't find enough hands that V would have that I beat. I figured that AK was in his range given how he played it, as was AQ, KQ, and even QQ. I didn't recall seeing him slow-play a hand yet.

    I tanked and folded. I was able to goad him into showing. He said that he was "super-nervous" that I had him beat since he didn't think that I would be raising with a hand that was behind what he had. He showed AKs.

    While the fold in that specific situation was "wrong" (we would have chopped the pot), I interpreted his comments as him being at the bottom of his betting/shoving range there. I was checking in with you because, despite all the obvious clues, it just seems like such a scared way to play -- almost too scared.

    Thank you again for your comments!
  • NYCRyNYCRy Red Chipper Posts: 336 ✭✭✭
    Do you normally play shortstacked? Just curious
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Ryan A wrote: »
    Do you normally play shortstacked? Just curious

    Depends entirely on the game.
  • Danny MDanny M Red Chipper Posts: 353 ✭✭✭
    Short stacked you kind of have to go with your hand. I will say though that if villain was smart and had a huge hand he would check and let you ship into his monster knowing you have only one move AI so you may be ahead of a donk... It's really high variance playing a shortstack and playing against a shortstack per you kind of just have to call off with any piece of the flop as the large stack and you kind of have to jam any equity to utilize what little fold equity you have vs like gutshots, backdoors, or the off chance villain airballed the flop. Why do you not play with a bigger stack?
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 986 ✭✭✭✭
    Along the thinking side, not this hand....you are trying to use SPR incorrectly. SPR never ever tells you what to do. Its a tool that takes your analysis at home to the table, where you don't have the ability to take the time analyze a hand at the table.

    IT really only gives you a quick way to know what equity you need to call or go all in in a hand. Once you know the different equity connected to spr....and the equities you need against a range you have a quick way to make a decision at the table.

    When something new comes up like this, you do your best, from the post here its close, then take it home and give him some ranges and see what % you need to call. That then give you an SPR that you will call the next time a situation like this comes up.

    Here you take it home...post the hand what ever. you know and SPR of 1 means you the pot 1 he bets 1 you call 1 so you have to have 33% equity.

    You know reason out....his range...done pretty well above (and I read the results so I get to cheat a little)....but it goes...he probably does not shove nutted hands...AQ KQs(maybe in his range) KK QQ..... So maybe give him 1 or 2 combos of that say :Ah:Qh and :Ad:Qd then give im 2 combos of AA (he might 4 bet them), all combos of AK....and because odd things can happen but not really with this guy one combo of KJs

    Against that range you have something like 40% equity.... with out the one combo of KJs it becomes 36%.... So now what SPR so spr 1 is an easy call...AT 40% combos....well an spr of 2 is he bets 2 into 1 you call 2 that 2 out of 5 or 40%......

    So now you know that this situation is borderline probably a fold at 2 to 1 spr...but less then that becomes a call.....

    The point is as you get control over opponents.....the range gives you the SPR.....The more of these you take home and work out the SPR the easier the game becomes....

    BUT ITS NEVER A QUESTION OF SPR VS RANGE.





  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    @Eazzy: Thank you. You used the better language than I did; I was going for a short-hand phrase (SPR vs. range), which was probably more misleading than helpful. I think that my initial post clarifies that, while SPR "dictates" a call, everything else (which I poorly labeled as "range" in the title) suggests a fold.

    @Danny M: I often/usually play with a bigger stack and/or top off. As I wrote before, it depends on the game. Sometimes, after I buy in for a full stack but lose a couple of hands, I continue to play with where my stack is depending on the table dynamics and stacks there. A lot of times at my casino, the 1/3 game is full of players with 50BB or less. By having a shorter stack and playing it aggressively, I often generate folds from people not willing to peel because it would cost them their stack or, pre-flop, calls from people who have put in something to the pot and don't want to let it go (yes, different examples of player types). It's not necessarily the most profitable approach to poker anywhere and everywhere, but it's an effective adjustment, I have found, at certain shorter-stacked tables with passive players. My short-stack aggression can pay off. If the table is filled with more diverse players and/or deeper stacks, then I top off. There aren't always enough different tables going at my casino, though, to change tables at any given moment to get to a "better" one. It's an adjustment, not a starting point.

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