Why does rule of 2/4 give "wrong results" as compared to Flopzilla on a (edited from title: "help!")
At the risk of sounding stupid, I have to ask because I am trying to learn and get better. My hole cards are QcJd. I assigned Villain a 40% range. The flop is KJ3 hearts. Now, here's the question: I assume I am behind right now because the villain's range has over 100 combos of Kings and most of his range is suited. I assumed I wasn't losing to a made hand already (flush), so a Queen (3) or a Jack (2) may win the pot for me (assuming he isn't sitting on KQ or KJ...maybe even AJ). All of these are in his range and raising hands in CO. Question is: when I run this through Flopzilla, I get a 61.2% equity. My problem is, I'm coming up with only 20-22% using the 4/2 rule and my five perceived outs. Which is correct? And how does it get to 61%?