Fold OTR?

caroriquelmecaroriquelme Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
UTG (UTG): 100 BB
CO (CO): 117.5 BB
BTN (BTN): 88.5 BB
Hero (SB): 99 BB
BB (BB): 101.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero: :Ah:Qd


fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, fold, CO calls 3.5 BB

Flop (14.5 BB, 3 players): :Ad:Jc:8d

Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB, fold

Turn (35.5 BB, 2 players): :7h

Hero checks, BTN bets 15.5 BB, Hero calls 15.5 BB

River (66.5 BB, 2 players): :Kc

Hero checks, BTN bets 22.5 BB, Hero calls 22.5 BB

BTN shows: :Ac:8c

(Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 69%, Turn 86%)

Hero mucks: :Ah:Qd

(One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 69%, Flop 31%, Turn 14%)

BTN wins 107.5 B

Villain is unknown, I just have 3 hands.
I gave him this open raise range on the BTN:
uol4ifny6o9u.png


*I think I could raise preflop

On the flop
I gave him this range for his cbet:
ri3pd5yl0bi4.png


Bet: 72% pot size
Pot odds: 2.4:1 --> 30% equity-req
I have 73% Equity versus his range and I need 30%, so this is a good call.

On the turn
Hi bets and I gave gim this range:
zxaxjnlc3asi.png


Bet size: 44% pot
Pot odds: 3.3:1 --> 23% equity-req
I have 65% Equity, so I call

On the river
So, I face the 3rd barrel and I guess this is a bad call. I give villain this range:
bgpcbnachirf.png


Bet size: 39% pot
Pot odds: 4:1 --> 20% equity-req
Here I have 12% equity and I need 20%.
If I think villain will bet with all his Top Pair I will get 44% equity, but I don’t really think he can triple barrel just with TP. I gave him AQ and AT as his betting combos of TP

Can I played this hand differently?
- I would 3bet AQ preflop
- Maybe I would try to raise OTF with TP good kicker, I get some information (like if hi folds facing my raise, if he calls I would fold facing aggression on the next Street)
- Fold OTR versus his bet. I just have TP with good kicker

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    Note the preflop raise is an iso-raise, not an open. I think this gives you more motivation to 3-bet pre.

    Also note the hand illustrates the limitations of calculating equity on the flop and turn. What's important is your EV, which is admittedly much harder to estimate.

    I don't much like raising the flop. What info do you really get? And is it worth the price you pay for it?

    Your opponent's sizing doesn't offer an obvious point to fold this hand, although if you're confident in your river ranging you can clearly let it go there.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭
    edited July 1
    CO and BU have $ in play when action gets to you (ranges which are AX heavy) and you basically invite CO into the hand by calling (he could also have AK, AA since he limped). Is there any particular reason you didn't 3bet?

    I think you have too many hands in BU cbet range. A2o-A9o (A8o excluded) will likely prefer to check here as they have a hand that fits better in a condensed range. This goes for the AX suited side as well. 22 may bet small (like1/4-1/2) as a range bet but 33-66 seems excessive. There honestly aren't that many hands BU raises over a limp pre and bets 3/4 into two players on the flop.

    The turn gives 89 a straight, you have a blocker card to nut flush/2nd nut flush draw possibilities, you also block QTdd, one of villains most logical bluffs.

    By the river I think you've poured so much that you pretty much gotta call the 22 bigs. It's a sick value bet if you think about it.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,503 ✭✭✭✭

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