Tough river decision NL50 deep
Millman73
Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
UTG is very loose passive VPIP 60 PFR 11 and Total AFq 35.1. RFI early position 11%.
What would you do on river when 141 bb deep?
Call?
Raise and call/fold to shove?
Shove?
PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 124.86 BB
SB: 112.98 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 374.24 BB
UTG+1: 114.72 BB
MP: 152.76 BB
MP+1: 105.9 BB
Hero (CO): 160.7 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9h 9c
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB
Flop : (6.5 BB, 3 players) 9d Qs 3h
BB checks, UTG bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB
Turn : (15.5 BB, 3 players) 8c
BB checks, UTG bets 14.72 BB, Hero calls 14.72 BB, fold
River : (44.94 BB, 2 players) 8h
UTG bets 47 BB, Hero ???
What would you do on river when 141 bb deep?
Call?
Raise and call/fold to shove?
Shove?
PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 124.86 BB
SB: 112.98 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 374.24 BB
UTG+1: 114.72 BB
MP: 152.76 BB
MP+1: 105.9 BB
Hero (CO): 160.7 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9h 9c
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB
Flop : (6.5 BB, 3 players) 9d Qs 3h
BB checks, UTG bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB
Turn : (15.5 BB, 3 players) 8c
BB checks, UTG bets 14.72 BB, Hero calls 14.72 BB, fold
River : (44.94 BB, 2 players) 8h
UTG bets 47 BB, Hero ???
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Comments
Sure V could sits on QQ, too bad. But V could also be overplaying KK, AA and AQ putting you ahead of these value combos.
Folding would be a big mistake.
Thanks 😊
Yes folding is out of question.
Would you just call, raise or shove?
10-11% pre theoretically includes JTs, KTs, KJs, KQo, KQs, AQo, AQs and QQ+ as relevant 'value' hands on the river. But we all know PFR nits sometimes show up with something way out of such range.
You didn't mention any reads, so I'll just assume a 60/11 is just playing his cards and does realize the 8 is a card that brings in straights.
Flop: c-bets half pot 3way (QQ+,KQ+, KJs, KTs, JTs, QTs, perhaps some AK,AJ,AT too and 88)
Turn: c-bets full pot 3way (QQ+,KQ+, KJs, KTs, JTs, QTs, 88)
Without reads it's hard to say (do share your views on this) what his pot bet means 3way. Is he trying to push you off your hands (not necessarily wanting to see the river with a made hand or semi-bluffing with a turned draw vs 2 players) or just bombing it with a hand like QQ, JTs or a lucky 88.
If he bombs it (riskying you folding) I'd say he's doing this more often with JTs.
River: slightly overbet pot river
The bet is odd. He's not using the pot button, also not just typing 25, but he's betting $23,50 slightly overbetting.
But even if he's nutted (QQ,88,JTs) you have 50%.
If he's not always potting it with top set on the turn on somewhat of a scare card, but is playing JTs like this then you quickly get to 66%+ equity on the river. And then he occasionally shows up with an overpair or a weird pre-hand like Q9-Q8s and 33 giving you up to 80%.
He's never folding full houses or straights and he might make a crying call if he overplayed an overpair (or even AQ) getting nearly 4 to 1.
So I think we should be shoving here. Happy to hear other player's thoughts :)
Great analysis, thanks! 😊
yes i agree with this
the question i would ask about this hand though is, do you have a check-raising range on this flop?
If they only call QQ/JTs/88 we have exactly 50% equity(just count the combos)
So this is clear river jam because sometimes they will call with KK/AA/AQ and sometimes they will show up with A8s/89s/33(less likely with PFR=11 but it can happen)
Thanks 😊