How do you price out set miners?

tengusteeltengusteel Red Chipper Posts: 119 ✭✭
edited January 2017 in General Concepts
5 players limp in
You have KK in SB
You raise to 11bb and they ALL call.
You are pretty sure they are all likely on pocket pairs.
The flop comes something like 843 rainbow.
Ordinarily a good flop for KK.
but in this scenario, it's very likely that one of the limpers has hit their set.
The limpers, if they all have pocket pairs, are each 11% to hit their set on the flop.
But with 5 of them, that's 55% chance you would be against a set on the flop.
In games like this, should we do 2x pot or something to try and price out the set miners?
Tagged:

Comments

  • thepokermonkthepokermonk Red Chipper Posts: 320 ✭✭✭
    Man, this is such a good question. I feel like I am constantly running into this situation in the low limits. Can't wait to hear the responses.
  • SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 246 ✭✭
    It depends.

    So are you happy just picking up the dead money. Then make hit huge or shove and see if anyone wants to race with you. How well you know your players? You need to know the pain threshold of the first 2 guys If bet is big enough to get them to fold it could fold through or at least heads up. I have seen 3-6 limper and made raise get first 2 to fold and then get comments like not enough in pot to fight for.

    most set miners do it for bad price anyways.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,006 ✭✭✭✭✭
    tengusteel wrote:
    You are pretty sure they are all likely on pocket pairs.

    Since you get dealt a pocket pair less than 7% of the time, the chance they all have pocket pairs is so tiny it's not worth considering. You're using math to scare yourself. One thing you can be sure of, is that if five people are limping in, it's that they don't all have pocket pairs.
    tengusteel wrote:
    In games like this, should we do 2x pot or something to try and price out the set miners?

    You could, but in theory they could still have the odds to set mine depending on your stack.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,683 ✭✭✭✭✭
    tengusteel wrote:
    5 players limp in
    You have KK in SB
    You raise to 11bb and they ALL call.
    You are pretty sure they are all likely on pocket pairs....
    but in this scenario, it's very likely that one of the limpers has hit their set.
    The limpers, if they all have pocket pairs, are each 11% to hit their set on the flop.
    But with 5 of them, that's 55% chance you would be against a set on the flop.

    Not sure where you're getting your numbers from. I'm not really sure the probability of all of them having pocket pairs, but I'd guess it's something like .001%.

    I also don't know the probability that they flopped a set, but it can't be too high since you've got about 37% equity against 5 pocket pairs. You put in 17% of the money and you've got 37% equity - a pretty good deal.

    As to how to play against a set, that's a different question, but we needed to get some of this cleared up first! :)
  • SixthStreetSixthStreet Red Chipper Posts: 246 ✭✭
    How often sets are made. Here is what I have experienced about 1 in 10-12., but had a run of 49 PP never hit set. Just last friday 3 hour session 16 PP hit 14 sets. This is live play.
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,771 -
    This is the kind of question that CREV (Cardrunner's EV) was born to answer.

    I would make a model where they all limp, you raise, they all call.

    My guess is stack sizes are such that there is a very low SPR and you can play pretty mechanically from there. There might be some problems with CREV not dealing well with multi-way pots, but you could probably put just one limp caller, then tons of dead money in the pot. Take the Hero equity versus one player and square it for two players, cube it for three. Be sure the amount of dead money in is appropriate and see.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 955 ✭✭✭✭
    As pointed out above they don't all have pairs. You have to realize that you can't just charge part of a range, you might want them to fold 77, even A6s..but you love them calling with K7s and Kjo...

    If you priced it such that out of 9 players 5 call, then the percentage of hands they are calling with must be over 50%...Ok maybe they all have 40% ranges and got a bit lucky. The point is look at what that range looks like and you will see you have lots of hands in the range you are crushing.

    Moreover since players play so ABC in multi way pots, and play their ranges so consistently, you generally can deny them the correct implied odds if all they are doing is trying to crack ACES...and get great odds against the lagy who shove top pair or draws here...

    I believe that most of my mony at live low stake poker comes form me raising a reasonable amount gettin 3 to 6 callers, hitting top pair (or an over pair) and betting getting 0 to 3 callers....sure sometimes I get cracked and can't get away...but that much rarer then you think. And yes if I get 3+ callers on the flop, I shot down and try to get to the river...With 2 I get cautions depending on the flop turn and river...and with one I play for stacks (well depends on stacks and the player but I play for a big pot)

    To miss quote Willy Sutton embrace multi way pots at small stake poker "because that's where the money is"
  • Steve007Steve007 Red Chipper Posts: 363 ✭✭✭
    tengusteel wrote:
    You are pretty sure they are all likely on pocket pairs.

    I've never been in this situation before. Unless my opponents all start showing me their cards I never will be in this situation. I'm not sure if you think this situation happens or if you think this is a good exercise. It is true that when I raise KK, get multiple callers, and flop an overpair I worry about sets, but I tend to think that 1 or maybe 2 guys have pocket pairs. I never thought 5 out of 5 opponents all had that hand. Unpaired hands have a lot more combos than pocket pairs.

    Also, the fact that nobody raised before I acted in the SB means the pocket pairs out there are unlikely to be AA-99 or whatever it is that people raise with PF (some might raise 88 or worse).

    To assume that all 5 opponents have pocket pairs, and to assume that all those pocket pairs are 88 or worse is an odd assumption to make.
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    Bigger problem seems to me isn't how I can protect my hand but how to get weaker hands to call. Focusing on "what's beating me" instead of "what hands are calling and how many streets can I get" is likely going to lead you astray.
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    Quick hits here:

    1. They dont all have PPs...that has been established.
    2. Im a guy that likes lower sized preflop raising but $11 in this spot is the worst imo. You have to give them somewhat of a decision to make preflop. $11 is inviting 5 snap calls and they are making no mistakes. $15 is my absolute minimum here and I really think the move is to go $20-$25 and make it look like a steal.
    3. It funny how things work out at 1-2. We've all fallen into this trap. In your mind you think "NOBODY could call $20 without PPs and then im playing my hand face up", when in reality the first limper folds 55 and the 2nd guy calls with KTs because LOLZ there is a 300 high hand jackpot and i could hit a royal flush.

    Dont overestimate what they will and wont call with. Focus on your fundamentals and not making mistakes. What do you want to happen here? You want to fold out a few hands and get a call or two I suppose. You might raise to $20 and get ZERO callers, 5 callers or something inbetween. With $11 you get 5 callers for sure. You have to make your best guess what the number is to get what you want accomplished and even then you might see that just this once everyone did the opposite of what you imagined. Pokers weird!

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file