QsJs Turn Line

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
Took the advise on raising with my marginal hands a little big to isolate rather than limp behind.

$1/$2/$2 game forced open of $5
4 limpers
Hero BU ($210) :Qs:Js : Raise to $30
MP Calls
CO Calls

Flop 3 ways ($104) :Ac:Jc:Ts
MP: checks
CO: checks
Hero: ???? Checks

Turn ($104) :Ac:Jc:Ts:9s
MP: bets $40
CO: folds
Hero: all in $180

MP: Not much history with him, but game has been loose passive with a lot of small medium pots. MP is very tired and appears some what drunk but ive only seen him drink a red bull. I am not sure if its just the image he wants to put off or he is really like that. It is about 8am and he came in around 6am or so appears to have been up all night (as myself). The only important information I have on villain is he limped UTG after a live bet earlier with QQ where I made a big bet to about $30 pre (T2s) and he jammed for about $150. Another hand there was an open to $15 two callers and he had about $160 this hand and re raised to $100 with JJ.

On the turn I didn't take too long to jam, but had hard time really putting him on a strong hand. I didn't want to play my draw passively with blockers to a lot of the hands he might call with AQ, KQ, AJ. What range would you assign to villain with the line he took and is my jam profitable? There are so few combos of Axs where he could have top pair + flush draw that play this way since I have blockers to spades and Ac is on the board. Didn't realize it at the time, but he is getting $140 / $320 (2.28 to 1) on his money (30% to break even).

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    I'd cbet ~$65 with the pair, ace on board, gutter, and back door fd equity. We can rep the strongest ace here, and should IMO. Leaves us $120 behind, in a 230 pot to stack off. Turn J wouldn't be worried about double barreling a lot of cards, but I more want to keep initiative. More often than not, the cbet will buy you two cards in position
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    You could really go either way on the flop. Pots bloated. You kinda hit but vs 2 opponents it hits their continuation range pretty hard too. I wouldnt like getting check raised thats for sure. Id lean towards checking back and re-evaluting turn like you did. In the long run checking or betting here wont make a world of difference on your bottom line. I think the hand plays itself on the turn. I believe with his bet sizing he usually has a mediocre hand here such as AQ maybe worse. Im guessing you have some fold equity along with your hands equity as it is.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    65 is way to big for considerations of a flop bet
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    65 is way to big for considerations of a flop bet

    2/3rds too big for a cbet on a coordinated board in a cash game? I don't know if going much less has fold equity, but would like to hear why a smaller bet should be made on this flop
  • DocRueDocRue Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    I would C-bet half pot on this flop. As played I feel the better play on the turn would be to just call and re-evaluate on the river.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I like a delayed cbet vs straight forward players with the ace on the board. If I were to c-bets I would just wish stacks were a little deeper because I do like the 2/3 pot size cbet on a wet board and would use it for almost all my value hands. Just makes it awkward if turn is a blank because I would have little fold equity on a double barrel say if it was a random spade that didn't' give me straight potential.

    If i bet $65 on the flop and got a caller turn would be ($234) and I would only have $115 left and in which case if i barrel would be giving him odds of ($349 / $115) little over 3:1.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    Basically what Austin said
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    I like the way you played the hand. With this board, this spot is going to end up being marginal meaning it will end up ,over time, to even out according to the math.

    With A on board I strongly lean towards a check. You opened, caught a piece and somebody might have smashed it. Let's check and see what happens

    Good card on turn, small bet, looks like a stab. I definitely feel like there is fold equity here... jam

    If you assign 30% equity to your hand you need 22% folds for breakeven
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    Wouldn't MP/CO open any range that 'smashes' this? 10s+ A10+? Maybe A10 not so much for MP, but overall this flop seems something I'd be more intimidated by if I flatted an open than raised and got called
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I like Austin's comments as well, and just want to add the AJT is a board that gets more calls against cbets than AJx. For this reason there are many hands that should be checked behind, especially when they have nut potential but can't stand a x/r. The turn card should improve many calling hands, so I don't see the reason for a jam or why it would be construed as a good card for our perceived range. I think it is a mistake to confuse one's equity with a reason to make a maneuver.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't necessarily think equity is being confused with making a "move", unless that's what you call a semi-bluff. I think if you only need to beat 20% fold equity it's more of a math problem. So I suppose the question is do you really have 30% equity in the hand and can you get more than 20% folds?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The one problem and i do view it as a major problem that persuadeo pointed out is how the 9 helps our range. The 9 could only help our range if i have pocket 9s. All my other value hands AA JJ TT KQ AJ are betting the flop that would be willing to jam the turn. So my actual range that would be willing to jam the turn like this that would check back the flop is:

    8s7s, 8c7c, KcQc, 99, Q8 (all combos), then a bunch of hands like I actually had with a pair + straight and flush draws. Maybe not so much like 9c8c because i dont have blockers to a hand which would likely call me. I only included KcQc in my range because he smashes this board and can easily get money all in on two streets.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    I don't necessarily think equity is being confused with making a "move", unless that's what you call a semi-bluff. I think if you only need to beat 20% fold equity it's more of a math problem. So I suppose the question is do you really have 30% equity in the hand and can you get more than 20% folds?

    I know what you are saying, and that is important, but using only this filter for making a decision skips over hand reading, which answers, critically, the 20% part of the question. Commonly, you see this concept in action in the forums when someone says they are betting "because I have so and so." Players like to skip over thinking who the board actually favors, and just as critically, what they represent when they make their semi-bluff. Focusing on this distinction helps greatly in these spots by defining when fast play is most profitable and when it is merely break even- or worse.

    Here, in other words, fold equity rates to lower on a runout which likes a calling range - whatever number it might be.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,003 ✭✭✭✭✭

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